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New Orleans at Chicago (12/11/2008)

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Posted: #201
trends are made to be broken...
 
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Posted: #202
trends are there just to back up my reasoning.  no way an average bears defense completely shuts down a potent offense like the saints.  the trends i posted were just to make people realize that the saints are not a horrible team on grass.  they've sucked on the road, but tonight is a different situation.  it's a prime time game that is a must win to keep their season alive and there's more big time players on the new orleans side line that i think they steal this one in chicago. 
 
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Posted: #203
Interesting read on weather...even though I'm on the under tonight it has nothing to do with the weather but if you're making your play based on that alone...think again...
 
"Looking at stadiums most affected by cold weather, there are no hard and fast trends that deliver a magic bullet. That’s because the role of the oddsmaker isn’t to accurately reflect the differences between opponents in the spread or total, it’s to accurately assess public perception of those differences. If squares think bad weather means the game is going under, that’s where the number is headed.

You could fund an entire college research department figuring out the cold weather trends in NFL stadiums. Taking a small extrapolation of games played in December or later in Green Bay, Cleveland, and Buffalo since 2005, nothing jumps out except the over trend. The Packers, Browns, and Bills are a combined 17-6 O/U during those circumstances over the time period, meaning there’s at least some benefit to avoid pounding the under at all costs when cold weather strikes."

 
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Posted: #204
Ok lets do that again..
 
Dencol--------> guys ignore him! i changed to the panthers sunday based off a bought pick and he slams me! but guess what? i made 500.00 and how much did u lose sir with tampa bay?  Yes i did talk them up all day. but thats america i changed my mind. 
BIGDADDY-------> RULES THE UNDAHHHHS..IM RIDING SHOTGUN WITH YOU, but also took +3, saints must win even though they suck on the road.. i look for playaction and brees to settle down down, play smart football and take little chance turning it over tonight! 
Guys please continue to post wether your great or you just suck. atleast its entertaining!
 
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Posted: #205
Quote Originally Posted by eddys2121:

Im hearing alot of people talkin about icy horrible conditions, just because its december, The only thing they expect is some flurries and a 10-15 mph wind. Which isnt anyting out of the ordinary.  remember the last two time these teams met was at chitown  In the winter and there was a ton of points scored:
12/30/07
CHI 33 NO 25
1/21/07
CHI 39 NO 14
 
IM ON THE OVER!!  GL EVERYONE !!

 

you say trend bettors suck, and then i find this post.  are you not following a trend here? 

 
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Posted: #206
mannnn, i have no idea on this game tonite.  however, i gotta disease i gotta feed. with that im riding with big daddy and chad too.  under 46 it is.

p.s. saints aint THAT solid.  solid teams don't win one lose one.
 
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Posted: #207
Bears take it to the defensive clowns that are the Saints.

Lay the 3.

 
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Posted: #208
Some more interesting trends I found on the web....I don't buy into trends very often but I do look at them as reference when making some plays.
 
The Bears are 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons. They are also 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
 
The Saints are 0-5 ATS as a road dog after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Bears are 7-2 ATS versus any team with the same record after a straight up win.
 
Chicago’s Passing Defense is ranked 28th in the league. This is not a positive sign when facing the Number 1 Passing Offense but the conditions and the style of defense the Bears play have proven to be effective against this Saints offense. In fact the Saints have been outscored 72-39 in their last two visits to the Windy City and in those two losses they threw 109 passes and ran just 32 times.
 
Finally, the Bears have been a pretty decent home team this year, winning four of six games. One loss was to then-unbeaten Tennessee 21-14 as a three-point home ‘dog, and the other was a fluky 27-24 overtime loss to Tampa Bay in Week 3 when Chicago blew a 10 point lead with 6½ minutes to play.
 
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Posted: #209
as the day goes on i'm liking the saints more and more,i was gonna lay off this game completely but im gonna put a little sprinkle with the saints,good luck everyone
 
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Posted: #210
as the day goes on i'm liking the saints more and more,i was gonna lay off this game completely but im gonna put a little sprinkle with the saints,good luck everyone
 
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Posted: #211
hi all. ihave been reading and using covers for over 5 years now. alot of good insight on here. alot of bad too. lol. but hey thats what this sight is all about. everyone giving their thoughts. good or bad. i have only posted like one other time i think. i choose not to as i dont wanna sway anyone with my horrid picks. but i do enjoy all the posts. i agree with chad2322 even if ur picks suck or ur just in here fightin. its very entertaining. and even among all the arguing u can find some good info. thanks to all in here keep up good work.
 
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Posted: #212
Wreckedem,
 
They might have held the Titans smash run to 25 yards, but just remember the Saints don't have to run, they have a passing prodigy. Saints +3
 
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Posted: #213
I don't know where people are getting their forcasts from, but gametime will be near 0. I've heard some say light to no wind, that does not happen in the winter at Soldier Field. Lake effect winds Chicago in Dec. = wind chills below zero. Saints will not be able to put up many points. Bears 2u, Under 3u & 2 teamer 1 unit.

Good Luck all.
 
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Posted: #214
JIMMY CHAMPION THE SAINT R GETTIN
 
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Posted: #215
Quote Originally Posted by chad2322:

Ok lets do that again..
 
Dencol--------> guys ignore him! i changed to the panthers sunday based off a bought pick and he slams me! but guess what? i made 500.00 and how much did u lose sir with tampa bay?  Yes i did talk them up all day. but thats america i changed my mind. 
BIGDADDY-------> RULES THE UNDAHHHHS..IM RIDING SHOTGUN WITH YOU, but also took +3, saints must win even though they suck on the road.. i look for playaction and brees to settle down down, play smart football and take little chance turning it over tonight! 
Guys please continue to post wether your great or you just suck. atleast its entertaining!


Ched..
Go back and notice that I had the Panthers and took home $ 1100.. but thanks for worrying about my bank...
Tonight you can check my bets up the thread if you want to keep tabs on me....
By the way I think I rejected your request to be my friendy.
 
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Posted: #216
Quote Originally Posted by dencol:

 
  12/10/2008 10:11 AM    Spread    400.00    400.00    Football - 302 Chicago Bears -3 +100 for Game  

  12/10/2008 10:11 AM    Total    660.00    600.00    Football - 301 New Orleans Saints/Chicago Bears under 45 -110 for Game  
 
  12/10/2008 10:11 AM    Total    805.00    700.00    Football - 301 New Orleans Saints/Chicago Bears under 23 -115 for 1st Half  

  12/10/2008 10:12 AM    Parlay    500.00    1,346.45    Football - 302 Chicago Bears -3 +100 for Game
  Football - 301 New Orleans Saints/Chicago Bears under 23 -115 for 1st Half 


My plays..
GL w yours
 
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Posted: #217
I need some help in Fantasy Football. Should I start Orton or Cambell this week? Orton goes up against the 26th ranked pass D, and cambell gets the 22nd ranked pass D of cinci, but 2 of Cambell's starting linemen are out. In my league u only get 1 point for every 50 pass yards, so I am really looking for who will produce more TD's. Any insight on this is greatly appreciated.
 
Thanks.
 
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Posted: #218

Quote Originally Posted by dencol:



Ched..
Go back and notice that I had the Panthers and took home $ 1100.. but thanks for worrying about my bank...
Tonight you can check my bets up the thread if you want to keep tabs on me....
By the way I think I rejected your request to be my friendy.

Chad, I have to agree here. I clearly remember Dencol being on the Panthers big time. I also remember him doubting I had the Panthers -2.5...lol And I have -2.5 tonight too...thats a trend I like.

 
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Posted: #219
Quote Originally Posted by spacemoose:

Imma buy me a case of Dinosaur eggs after I win tommorow.. Omellete time bitches!



just for the sake of quoting
LOL
 
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Posted: #220

Quote Originally Posted by lokalboy702:



Why only Detroit?  What about wins against the Colts, Eagles, and Minnesota, who the Saints lost to at home.

Colts were horrible the first half of the year, Eagles were hot or miss and Minn is a huge rival for Chi and they split the series with home wins...keep it simple this is an offencive league this year dont build Chi up to much there in a soft Div.

 
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Posted: #221
Steve Budin CEO = Chicago
 
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Posted: #222
Quote Originally Posted by Philly215:

I need some help in Fantasy Football. Should I start Orton or Cambell this week? Orton goes up against the 26th ranked pass D, and cambell gets the 22nd ranked pass D of cinci, but 2 of Cambell's starting linemen are out. In my league u only get 1 point for every 50 pass yards, so I am really looking for who will produce more TD's. Any insight on this is greatly appreciated.
 
Thanks.


That choice is between a rock and a hard place...you might be better off picking a waiver wire....
Orton would be my pick there....The air is out of the Redskin balloon..and they should be flat against Cinci
 
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Posted: #223
I like the over.  at least 50 points tonight..
 
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Posted: #224

A little advice please.  I have one line at 45.5 and another at 48.  Is it worth it to make a large play with each line and try to middle this one?  Seems like a good play to me but I am not sure if I am chasing a dream and wasting the juice??

 
 
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Posted: #225
WEATHER FACT!

It's the same temperature in Chicago as it is in West Lafayette Indiana. Tonight is a home game for Brees.
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