New York at Cincinnati (01/09/2010)

line now CINCI -1 !   What's moving this from -2.5????????

Another thing I was looking at was how the Jets have fared against top 15 rushing attacks. By my account they have faced them in 6 weeks during the season.

Pre-Jenkins injury both Miami and Ten had success running against them.

 Week 8 rematch against the Dolphins the Jets completely shut down the run game but still lost thanks to back-to-back kr returns for td by Ted Gine.

Week 10 Jones-Drew lit them up.

Week 12 Carolina struggles to run on them. I blame this in part to Delhomme sucking as he completed less 1/2 of his passes while throwing 4 picks to gang green.

Don't get me wrong this is the best the run d in the league, but they have been run on. I don't think Benson will go off but something like 22 for 94 is reasonable.  

Cincy Handles The EXPOSED Jets in Cincy.....

Cincy -1

They will run the ball and control the clock and I look for their defense to give the rook something to think about.

Also, the overconfidence coming from the coach is un heard of, he may have given the bengals all the motivation they may need.

 glta go bungles!

A lot to think about in this game and there are some pretty compelling arguments for Cincy in this thread if you look at key wins or losses during the season.

Irish is right - that Jets 10-7 loss to Atlanta is troubling.
And Shickson's idea re. Cincy's holding out a game plan to learn from what the Jets did last week is also interesting.

However, when I just look at the way I think these two teams match up specifically against one another, what I keep coming back to is the struggles the Nati. offense has had in it's last 8 weeks.

Which is that they're averaging 15.6 points a game.
In their last 22 red zone trips they only have 7 touchdowns.
They are the worst scoring team in the playoffs (at 24th).
And Cedric Benson hasn't scored one since November 8th.

Ocho Cinco himself said the offense "has been struggling all season" and we saw some evidence last week that if he gets blanketed by a shut-down corner, taking away their ability to stretch the field, their running game will struggle as well. 

Another stat I found is that Carson Palmer's numbers drop significantly when he faces 5 rushers instead of 4, and we know for a fact that Jets really like rushing more than 4 guys at the quarterback.

You think about all of the above and realize they're going up against the Jets defense and to me, it's just a mismatch.

On the Jet's side of the ball, the Bengals obviously do have a strong defense and are getting a couple of healthy guys back, though they lose Ray Maulauga.  And yes, Sanchez is a rook, although has had NO turnovers in the last two weeks based on a recent awareness that it's important, and he is no stranger to big game atmospheres.  We also know the kid is scrappy and not afraid to run for a first down or scramble to make a play if he needs to.

The Jets, and I had to look at this one twice, have averaged 172 yards rushing a game this season!?  In the NFL?!  Those are college numbers man!  Regardless of what happens today, that's just sick.  Faneca and Mangold are both going to the pro bowl and as a team they broke the franchise record cashing in 2756 yards on the season.

Everyone keeps bringing up the fact that the last two teams they faced tanked their games allowing them to roll into the playoffs and while that is absolutely the truth it still allowed New York to create an enormous amount of momentum and confidence coming into this game.

One other X-factor is the Jets actually have more playoff experienced guys on their roster than the Bengals, 26 to 13.

All the Chris Henry V. Rex Ryan braggadocio can just be thrown out the window in my opinion.

The guys are going to decide this game on the field and unless Cincinnati produces a dramatic turnaround offensively from what they've shown in the last 2 months of football, the Jets are going to win this game.

A lot to think about in this game and there are some pretty compelling arguments for Cincy in this thread if you look at key wins or losses during the season.

Irish is right - that Jets 10-7 loss to Atlanta is troubling.
And Shickson's idea re. Cincy's holding out a game plan to learn from what the Jets did last week is also interesting.

However, when I just look at the way I think these two teams match up specifically against one another, what I keep coming back to is the struggles the Nati. offense has had in it's last 8 weeks.

Which is that they're averaging 15.6 points a game.
In their last 22 red zone trips they only have 7 touchdowns.
They are the worst scoring team in the playoffs (at 24th).
And Cedric Benson hasn't scored one since November 8th.

Ocho Cinco himself said the offense "has been struggling all season" and we saw some evidence last week that if he gets blanketed by a shut-down corner, taking away their ability to stretch the field, their running game will struggle as well. 

Another stat I found is that Carson Palmer's numbers drop significantly when he faces 5 rushers instead of 4, and we know for a fact that Jets really like rushing more than 4 guys at the quarterback.

You think about all of the above and realize they're going up against the Jets defense and to me, it's just a mismatch.

On the Jet's side of the ball, the Bengals obviously do have a strong defense and are getting a couple of healthy guys back, though they lose Ray Maulauga.  And yes, Sanchez is a rook, although has had NO turnovers in the last two weeks based on a recent awareness that it's important, and he is no stranger to big game atmospheres.  We also know the kid is scrappy and not afraid to run for a first down or scramble to make a play if he needs to.

The Jets, and I had to look at this one twice, have averaged 172 yards rushing a game this season!?  In the NFL?!  Those are college numbers man!  Regardless of what happens today, that's just sick.  Faneca and Mangold are both going to the pro bowl and as a team they broke the franchise record cashing in 2756 yards on the season.

Everyone keeps bringing up the fact that the last two teams they faced tanked their games allowing them to roll into the playoffs and while that is absolutely the truth it still allowed New York to create an enormous amount of momentum and confidence coming into this game.

One other X-factor is the Jets actually have more playoff experienced guys on their roster than the Bengals, 26 to 13.

All the Chris Henry V. Rex Ryan braggadocio can just be thrown out the window in my opinion.

The guys are going to decide this game on the field and unless Cincinnati produces a dramatic turnaround offensively from what they've shown in the last 2 months of football, the Jets are going to win this game.

Jets at Cinn -3 O/U 34

Out of 32 games these teams played, total score went under 34 pts in 6 games for Cinn and 7 games for Jets.  13/32 is 40% or 60% of time score went over 34 pts.

Contrary to general opinion, cold weather is not a factor in over/under statistics. Cross winds are but that is another analysis.

Q.E.D.
Play of the day is UNDER

If you tease 6pts with some other bet, you get over 28pts.
Now total only went under 28pts in 7 out of 32 games. That's 22% or 78% of the time total went over 28pts

I don't tease because it is not cost effective. Better to parlay but that is another analysis. I don't parlay either because they don't pay you enough. 1/2 X 1/2 = 1/4. Payout should be 4/1 but it is only like 2/1.

It doesn't matter what either one of these teams have done over the course of the season. You might as well view this as the start of a new season altogether. The Jets are hot and the Bengals have been in a downward spiral, as of late. (I'm not talking about last Sunday night's game either)

The Jets will have more emotion coming into this game and the Bengals offense will not have the confidence needed to propel them into the lead. I see the Bengals playing from behind early... Wether that is 3, or 7 points, the Jets should score first and let their defense hold a Bengals offense that has been flat. I look for a running/defensive game and my personal opinion is that the Jets hold the edge in both.

Final play... Jets +2.5 ($3)

Good luck to all!!

 

Called smart money, bro. . .

last week the JETS just got luck to win that game...But the real game is here for the CINCINNATI so Jake Palmer will take his team to the next level......  

This guy is an idiot and doesnt know anything ...I sure wouldnt listen to him.

Jake Palmer......LOL maybe ifhe knew who the players were maybe.

alright, bengals fans, looks like conditions are right for a good home game, jets on the road even with best D statistically, Bengals D pretty stout as well, i see identical teams, save for one BIG exception, the QBs, carson palmer is light years ahead of sanchez in smarts-managaing a tough playoff game....  20-12 bengals, side is strong, total is up in the air...

going with the bengals only because they r playing at hm.  the crowd has got to count for something. -1 all day.

RLM

Jets ML and Over. 

I like the Bengals in this spot and here is why...

Truth be told the box ass Bungles laid down last week on purpose because they did not want to get whipped AGAIN by the Texans this weekend. Karma comes back to bite them in the ass. Can't wait til this game is over too!

my mistake about the Quarterback it Mikeny  it not jake it carlson for usc so im with the BENGALS

It's Carson... "C'mon man!!"

Boys....STOP trying to disect the game.  I've done the research for you and it's free....trust me, play all 4 games below and thank me Sunday night.  Sandman

Cincinnati -2.5

Philadelphia +3.5

New England -175

Green Bay -1 ( very large wager !!! )

The Bengals remember Rex Going for it on 4th down up 30 and will put it in his fat ass today!

Cincy and under

This is the ONLY time of the year I get to watch the N.F.L. as I sped all other Sunday afternoons writing about what happened on Saturdays.

Caveat firmly in place, and these are all .05u wagers with my boxing action that hit last nite.

Jets buying 15 for NYJ+17.5. Like the better defense here. Jets are playing well of late, healthier. Though that Qb's passing ratio could advance the Nati SU.

bigeiii

Are you kidding me...? I'm not jumping off that cliff!! The only game I like in your post is the Packers game!!

Good luck!!

JETS & OVER