Pittsburgh at Green Bay (02/06/2011)

Head to Head the score is 22/17 in favor of Pitt. Pitt on the road scores 24/15 in favor of Pitt, Greenbay on the road scores 20/14 in favor of GreenBay, Teams that made the playoffs this is how the Greenbay did against those teams the score averaged out to be 22/16 in favor of Greenbay, Teams that Pitt has played that made the playoffs the score averaged out to be 19/20 in favor of Greenbay. Pitt last 3 games averaged 32/17 and Greenbay last 3 games averaged 30/17.Teams that are similar to opponents Pitt has played during the regular season to a Greenbay team are Alanta twice, Jets twice, New England when those scores are averaged it is 22/18 in favor of Greenbay. The opponents similar to a Pitt team that  Greenbay has played are Alanta twice,Jets,Miami,Giants,Philly twice the scores averages out to 20/17 in favor of GreenBay. Both Pitt and Jets played some of the same opponents throughout the year those scores average out to be 31/26 in favor of Greenbay. When you average all the numbers it comes out to 20.5. For the Pitt but I will add 3 points to the Pitt to make the score which makes it 24 and when you average the scores for Greenbay is 24. Which means this will be a tight game possibly but one reason why I’m leaning toward Greenbay is when Greenbay went into New England and almost beat them with a back up QB 27/31and that same New England team went into Pitt and beat them 39/26. Greenbay leads Pitt in the post season 3rd down conversion, completion rating, and Defensive sacks. Extra points made, Defensive pass interceptions, forced fumbles. Also Greenbay has played over 70x on artificial turf to Pitt 16x. I don’t know how much of a factor that is but that’s a big difference to you numbers guys that averages out to 31/29 in favor of Greenbay. I didn’t add that into figuring out my final score thou but anyways this is my prediction I have Greenbay to win 27 to 24. Please let me know your thoughts. I'm sorry this my correct score 

I think some of your numbers are skewed. Green Bay played 3 post season games to Pitt's 2. Not sure if your numbers are totals or averages. Also, Pitt played against 2 top 10 defenses (1 of which is a division rival). Green Bay played against 1 top 10 defense (Chi and they are a division rival) and faced 2 defenses that ranked 20 or higher (Chi and Atl) against the pass during the regular season. Also Pitt didn't play ATL twice. Not that the game should really matter seeing how Pitt beat them without Ben and that both of these teams have had to change a ton of personnel due to injuriy throughout the year.

I wouldn't say it's outrageous to expect Pitt to be favored. They played in a tougher conference and have a higher seed. Pitt has the #2 overall defense and #1 scoring defense, GB has the #5 defense and #2 scoring defense. GB has the #9 offense and #10 scoring offense, Pitt has the #14 offense and #12 scoring offense (don't forget these numbers would probably be higher had Ben not been suspended 4 games).

These teams are pretty evenly matched. I don't expect a blowout from either side here. If Pitt would've continued to pound the Jets in the 2nd half like they did in the 1st half I have no doubt in my mind that they'd be favored.

And as PeteyRose pointed out the oddsmakers expect a good game as well- *here is a fun fact...in the last 20 superbowls, we only have had a spread of 3 once, and a spread of less than 3 zero times

Head to Head the score is 22/17 in favor of Pitt. Pitt on the road scores 24/15 in favor of Pitt, Greenbay on the road scores 20/14 in favor of GreenBay, Teams that made the playoffs this is how the Greenbay did against those teams the score averaged out to be 22/16 in favor of Greenbay, Teams that Pitt has played that made the playoffs the score averaged out to be 19/20 in favor of Greenbay. Pitt last 3 games averaged 32/17 and Greenbay last 3 games averaged 30/17.Teams that are similar to opponents Pitt has played during the regular season to a Greenbay team are Alanta twice, Jets twice, New England,Baltimore 3x when those scores are averaged it is 20/19 in favor of Greenbay. The opponents similar to a Pitt team that  Greenbay has played are Alanta twice,Jets,Miami,Giants,Philly twice the scores averages out to 20/17 in favor of GreenBay. Both Pitt and Jets played some of the same opponents throughout the year those scores average out to be 31/26 in favor of Greenbay. When you average all the numbers it comes out to 20.5. For the Pitt but I will add 3 points to the Pitt to make the score which makes it 24 and when you average the scores for Greenbay is 24. Which means this will be a tight game possibly but one reason why I’m leaning toward Greenbay is when Greenbay went into New England and almost beat them with a back up QB 27/31and that same New England team went into Pitt and beat them 39/26. Greenbay leads Pitt in the post season 3rd down conversion, completion rating, and Defensive sacks. Extra points made, Defensive pass interceptions, forced fumbles. Also Greenbay has played over 70x on artificial turf to Pitt 16x. I don’t know how much of a factor that is but that’s a big difference to you numbers guys that averages out to 31/29 in favor of Greenbay. I didn’t add that into figuring out my final score thou but anyways this is my prediction I have Greenbay to win 27 to 24. Please let me know your thoughts. I'm sorry this my correct score. Thanks for the correction.

The fact that the action is essentially split down the middle proves that the linemakers were correct to make GB a 3 pt favorite. If anyone thinks that Pittsburgh is clearly the better team and will win needs to pound the line.

Of course the line was set to induce action on Pittsburgh. GB is the public darling. The line had to be set at where it is to prevent an overload of money being poured on GB. If the it opened at a pk over 70% would be on the Pack.

I think we are looking at this 2 different ways. You see that Pitt is a better team and so the line should be indicative of that. I see it as a way to split the vote.

Reverse line movement on the totals.  Moneyline way off balance, and yet Vegas is trying to get even more Pitt money by raising the spread.

Gee, maybe they know something. . .

PIT vs GB season and play-offs vs 3-4 def. and 4-3 def. alignments.

Season PIT 8-3 (727.) vs 3-4

GB 4-3 (.571) vs 3-4

Play-offs  PIT played against 2 teams 3-4

GB played 3 succesive games VS teams using 4-3

THE PATRIOTS TRASHED PITTSBURGH IN THE KETCHUP BOTTLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL. THE PATRIOTS HAVE NO TALENT AT ALL EXECEPT #12 AND THEIR HEAD COACH. PITT ALSO LAYED AN EGG IN NOLA ANOTHER PRIME TIME TILT. SPREAD EM OUT AND WITH RODGERS BEING RAZOR ACCURATE THE CHAINS WILL BE MOVING ALL DAY. PITT HAS NOT FACED A DEFENSE LIKE GBS ALL YR. LOOK FOR GB TO WIN BY TD OR MORE.

Ben Roethlisberger is 14-7 ATS as an underdog.

Ben Roethlisberger is 9-3 ATS in the playoffs (6-2 as a favorite).

Everyone talking about how hot green bay is... 7-3 last 10 games. The steelers a little hot themselves 8-2 last 10 games. AFC clearly superior this year and the steelers have beaten all of the good afc teams minus a beatdown by NEW ENG and we all know where they are spending superbowl weekend!  Rodgers has just beaten his bad big game rap  and just won his first playoff game this year albeit three in a row. BIG BEN has been doing doing this just a little bit longer Pitt and OV for the large

those negatives are huge. clay will have a field day on this oline.

pitt secondary is terrible.. they are GREAT at stopping the run, PLAYING SMASH MOUTH FOOTBALL. Green Bay will be in 4 and 5 wide all day.     Taking away from Pitts NUMBER ONE STRENGTH.    Do they really want Woodley, Harrison, Farrior out there vs the spread... NOT GONNA HAPPEN. 

Pitt also lacks what causes GB problems (ELITE PASS RUSHER)   ie, Peppers/Jared Allen.  

I don't understand why people are all over Pitt- this game is in perfect conditions. Rodgers is UNREAL in domes. Highest QB rating in the NFL inside domes.

You ppl want to bring up last years Pitt win.. WHY? lol.    You want to bring up a poor performance vs CHICAGO- A-RODGE had 150YARDS in the first HALF in terrible conditions on the WORST FIELD IN FOOTBALL.   2nd half didn't matter. GB knew they had the game in the bag. They dominated CUTLER- they knew that a 2nd and 3rd stringer wouldn't beat them.

Every MAJOR angle favors GB.    

PERFECT CONDITIONS

ELITE PASS RUSH VS TERRIBLE O LINE

ELITE PASS OFFENSE VS TERRIBLE PASS D.

Pitt has ONE deep threat.

is flozell adams really gonna stop clay matthews? lol.

couldn't have put it any better.

and all this AFC is far superior than the NFC talk needs to end.

You can say PITT dominated the AFC-  ok, even so. The AFC elite teams are all power teams with run orientated offense.    Too bad they are playing a spread offense with a lethal QB, whose style they have seen once all year and got blown out that game.

I like Pitt to win the superbowl....

I'll take the experienced qb, better defense, and better run game...

GL TO ALL!

Everyone should relax on bringin up these NE and NO games. Don't forget that PITT caught both of these teams after they both had just lost to a terrible Cleveland team when they were obviously looking ahead to PITT. Especially the NO game. Monday Night Football on Halloween Night in NO. That's a tough game for anyone to win.

Anyone else could point out the trouble's that GB had with Detriot this year. And I know Rodgers got hurt late in the 2nd quarter in their loss but he also led them to 0 points before that happened.

Tom Brady > Aaron Rodgers

plus GB doesn't have the tight ends that NE had....

Quote Originally Posted by seaona:

PACKERS LAST 10 GAMES (INCLUDING PLAYOFFS) 7 wins -  3 losses - all loses were 4 points or less! that means they have almost won 10 in a row!  this team is always in it - rodgers has twice as many touchdowns as ben this season - and they were both out for a few games - rodgers has better passing rating and twice as many touchdowns - gotta go with the better qb in this one-
green bay on money line (to risky with points) should get -135 at worst    laying big,,,,,---
good luck all

WORST POST EVER! Who cares what GB's record is their last 10 games. Pitt's last 10 games they're 8-2. And both QB's were not out a few games each. Ben missed 4 games and Rodgers missed 1.5. How can you even compare TD's with these two? Rodgers has no run game and is forced to throw 30-40 times a game in a pass happy offense. Ben passes maybe 20-25 times a game in a more balanced offense. Last year when Ben threw a lot more and passed for career highs in yards and TD's the Steelers finished 9-7. That's not how this team plays.  I've never seen so much disrespect given to a 2 time super bowl champion QB who is 10-2 for his career in the playoffs and so much love given to a guy that just won his first playoff game 3 weeks ago.

Quote Originally Posted by seaona:

PACKERS LAST 10 GAMES (INCLUDING PLAYOFFS) 7 wins -  3 losses - all loses were 4 points or less! that means they have almost won 10 in a row!  this team is always in it - rodgers has twice as many touchdowns as ben this season - and they were both out for a few games - rodgers has better passing rating and twice as many touchdowns - gotta go with the better qb in this one-
green bay on money line (to risky with points) should get -135 at worst    laying big,,,,,---
good luck all

"they have ALMOST won 10 in a row" Brilliant analysis there!! lol

   My first reaction when the line was posted was that it's inflated. And at Super Bowl time, it usually is to accommodate less sophisiticated bettors.I feel the contest will be very close, till near the end. Both teams' playing styles are  a carbon copy of each other. Weeks ago, I saw the Packers potential as a possible SB team. And up till last weekend, I was gung ho, about Green Bay's chances to win it all. However, I ALWAYS bet with my head and not my heart! I'm a rabid Bears fan, but I bet against them. Sometimes, you have to make hard choices. Like when I chose the Jets over NE.  I'm seeing the Pack as the new darlings of the media, and the betting public. I feel the number could even rise to 3 pts in the public frenzy to bet on "a good thing"! After much analysis, I'm going with:

PITTSBURGH  + 2.5