Pittsburgh at Green Bay (02/06/2011)

    playoff record (8-4)

gonna speak early, might change my mind over the course of the next two weeks barring injury news...ect.

PITT should be favored in this game, Rashad Mendenhall is the difference maker in the matchup on paper.  Somebody said that "vegas was begging for pitt money", however, I see it a different way, the public perception of Greenbay is very high at the moment and it seems to me like the majority of the public would rather see Aaron Rodgers get his first ring, rather than Ben Rapist Roethlisberger, not to mention a change of scenery bodes well for the NFL and it's business. Combine that with the Superbowl's reputation for the average joe to bet heavy on the favorite, the fact that you dont have to give up a full field goal, and a little bluff line movement to mentally reinforcement the favorite 5 minutes after the line came out and bam! you have a great recipe for the public to lose a lot of money come superbowl sunday.  Pittsburgh has the experience, an extremely fast and explosive wide reciever (who had a great game against the pack last go around), the slightly better defense, a traveling fan base just as solid as the cheeseheads, a superbowl proven and decorated quarterback, better tight end, troy polamalu, and the better running game...

I am not saying to bet Pitt ml, wouldnt be surprised one bit to see Steelers lose by 1 pt which we know is the best overall scenario for the NFL and Vegas.

STEELERS + ANYTHING OVER 1  

IF YOUR INTO TEASING STEELERS +9.5 AND OVER 38

*here is a fun fact...in the last 20 superbowls, we only have had a spread of 3 once, and a spread of less than 3 zero times

Dude...no offense, but since your only like 6 post deep in your covers career, maybe you should change your name....everyone knows there is only one true bigdaddy, and his name is bigdaddyhpd

I keep flip flopping on the over/under but that teaser looks pretty good.

I took my teaser winnings from last weekends divisional championships and I'm doing it again...

Pitt +8.5 ov 40

$2 for $4

One thing that concerns me about GB is that I have yet to see this team come back from any type of 4th quarter defecit this whole season. They haven't had a situation where they're trailing in the 4th quarter and have come back to win the game. They came close week 6 against Miami when they rallied back from 7 down in the 4th to tie the game but they went on to lose in OT. They just seem like a team that frontruns and gets up big early and tries to coast to a victory.

Pitt has already shown that they can play both ways. They can get up big early and coast the rest of the way or Ben has shown that if they are down late in the game and he needs to make a play he can. He already has 3 game winning 4th quarter drives this season alone (2 against Balt and 1 against Miami).

I'm not saying that Aaron Rodgers isn't capable of doing that, it's just that I have yet to see it this season. It's usually the GB defense that makes a game saving INT at the end of the game and not the offense going down and getting points when they need too. (Look at the last 2 Chic games and the Phil playoff game as examples)

What a storied match up this is. So many NFL titles between these two teams - Makes it a CLASSIC!

Green Bay is favored as it should be. They have a very good special team play versus rather poor play by the Steelers.

A lott of negatives for Pittsburgh;

- A rather suspect OL - Will Pouncey even play?

- Suspect seconday even with Polamalu.

- GB won't come out Flat as NYJ.

But BUT! The Steelers have Ben and that Defense. 

Steelers in the bowl is cake getting 21/2 is the ice cream.

Cake and ice cream i like a lot. The steelers win #7.

I'm with you and Vue - doesn't everyone realize what a trap game is by now? The Great Steel Curtain getting 2.5?!?!? That's a better lure than the spinning/jumping stinky cheese smelling cricket I use.....

"Oh My GAWD!!!!!!!!!!"

"Vegas is handing out money!!!!! I can't believe it!!!!"

"I'm mortgaging the house and putting it all on the Steelers!!!!"

I..........

CAN'T.............

LOSE!!!!!!!!

WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Packers ML is the play.....

Last game went the same for both teams. They got ahead comfortably and eased off the gas.  You can't put any weight on Sanchez throwing for 220 or GB's offense struggling in the second half. If you do, then you didn't watch the games. Both teams are top shelf. Both offenses can score. Both teams will learn a lesson from playing conservative last week. Okay the last statement is opinion, but I do believe both coaches are smart enough to see that.

Here is where the difference lies. Any pressure to win this game is on GB. Many didn't expect Pittsburgh to even make the playoffs.  The coach and most of the players already have a ring. You don't think Rodgers is well aware that the one criticism people have of him is that he hasn't won the big game? I think both teams will struggle to run. Turnovers will be a factor, as in most Pittsburgh games.  I like Pittsburgh to win, but that is the obvious homer call. I think the better play is the over. I locked in over 44.5 today. May add to it depending on movement. Playing in the dome helps both offenses and both kickers.  I see it being:

Pittsburgh 27

GB 23 

Head to Head the score is 22/17 in favor of Pitt. Pitt on the road scores 24/15 in favor of Pitt, Greenbay on the road scores 20/14 in favor of GreenBay, Teams that made the playoffs this is how the Greenbay did against those teams the score averaged out to be 22/16 in favor of Greenbay, Teams that Pitt has played that made the playoffs the score averaged out to be 19/20 in favor of Greenbay. Pitt last 3 games averaged 32/17 and Greenbay last 3 games averaged 30/17.Teams that are similar to opponents Pitt has played during the regular season to a Greenbay team are Alanta twice, Jets twice, New England when those scores are averaged it is 22/18 in favor of Greenbay. The opponents similar to a Pitt team that  Greenbay has played are Alanta twice,Jets,Miami,Giants,Philly twice the scores averages out to 20/17 in favor of GreenBay. Both Pitt and Jets played some of the same opponents throughout the year those scores average out to be 31/26 in favor of Greenbay. When you average all the numbers it comes out to 20.5. For the Pitt but I will add 3 points to the Pitt to make the score which makes it 24 and when you average the scores for Greenbay is 24. Which means this will be a tight game possibly but one reason why I’m leaning toward Greenbay is when Greenbay went into New England and almost beat them with a back up QB 27/31and that same New England team went into Pitt and beat them 39/26. Greenbay leads Pitt in the post season 3rd down conversion, completion rating, and Defensive sacks. Extra points made, Defensive pass interceptions, forced fumbles. Also Greenbay has played over 70x on artificial turf to Pitt 16x. I don’t know how much of a factor that is but that’s a big difference to you numbers guys that averages out to 31/29 in favor of Greenbay. I didn’t add that into figuring out my final score thou but anyways this is my prediction I have Greenbay to win 26 to 23. Please let me know your thoughts.