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San Francisco at Green Bay (01/05/2014)

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Posted: #76
San Fran wins. 13-7
 
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Posted: #77

Four pages of comments, and the only positive listed for the Packers is the cold weather.........yet the majority of the board likes them.  Good Luck.  Personally if I was playing with a broken collarbone, I wouldn't be looking forward to -25 wind chill, but maybe that's because I'm old.

 

 
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Posted: #78
If it goes to SF -3.5 or higher, take GB
-3 or lower, take SF. This one will be close but SF will win. Probably on a late Phil "Hook 'em Horns" Dawson fg. 
 
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Posted: #79
Take the Packers at 3 before it jumps back down to 2.5...put all you got on this team at home here....and I don't even like Packers as a team but at home in the cold is where they shine..
 
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Posted: #80
Played a 4 team parlay on Friday got my 2 yesterday so all I need is for Cincy & SF to win today. I should have no problem today 2 dog wins yesterday and 2 chalk wins today. Going to lay down another parlay today with the 2 teams I already have just going to add Auburn+8  
 
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Posted: #81

Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

Sammy's analysis is excellent. There is no doubt that Green Bay has a HUGE home field advantage when they play in Green Bay in January verses a team from a mild weather city. That is why the line is where it is at. If this was a regular season game I would make this a no play, leaning towards Green Bay. But since it is one and done playoffs I'm betting San Fran gets it done in spite of the weather. The cold makes for more passes dropped and the ground is hard as concrete. Usually the winds are stronger as well. San Fran can and will dominate the line of scrimmage. The only two things Green Bay has going for it is the freezing cold and their fantastic QB. I think the cold and the wind will make this more of a low scoring running game, both push this into San Fran's favor. The Green Bay defense stinks, their pass rush stinks, and fragile Rodgers is going to be slammed into that frozen turf multiple times while Kapernick will have plenty of time to throw and plenty of opportunities to use his speed to run for first downs. It's playoffs, your running QB's risk runs that they wouldn't in a regular season game so that will be another San Fran advantage. San Fran -2.5

very right.... that healed collar bone in the freezing cold,, and face the sf D....

 
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Posted: #82
Taking the over at 45.5
 
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Posted: #83
Cold weather affects both teams--wherever their from. My question is how effective  are the gloves, the receivers wear, going to be in this type of cold.That could stop a passing game . We all read the obvious here in these posts . Still likin S.F. but contrary to popular opinion I'm thinkin' the under in this game---lot's of running ,dropped catches and penalties ( altho Rodgers has not many options except to throw )--one good way to entice a touchdown is to place a heater in the endzone....
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

I had the chance to do a little NFL rewind on their week 1 matchup, and I came away with one major conclusion. The Packers were unable to generate any type of pass rush with a healthy Clay Matthews. Kaepernick had a very clean pocket to throw from for the entire game, going 27/39 for 412 yards and 3 TDs. Obviously one of Kaep's best games as a pro. Boldin was responsible for about half those yards. The only time Kaep was more dominant was when he played the Pack in the playoffs last year and went 17/31 for 263 yards and 2 TDs, BUT also ran for 181 yards and 2 rushing TDs. Should we expect another career day for the young QB??? He has certainly had the Packs number, or should we say his offensive line has had their number. I think it's important to note, however, that those games were in the Bay Area. Playing in Lambeau in December is a horse of a different color.

In fact, if you take a look at the 49ers schedule, they have only played one game below 40 degrees this entire regular season (MNF at 35 degree Washington). The rest of their games have been played in relatively mild climates and domes including Zona, Tampa, Nola, St Louis, Jacksonville, Tenn, and Seattle in week 2. Say what you want about cold weather, but playing in 12 degree weather does have an impact on ball security and it's a little harder to catch a pass from a gun slinger like Kaep. Unfortunately there's no way to simulate 12-5 degree weather in their Santa Clara practice facility. I've seen the 49ers using their jackets in 55 degree San Fran. They are in for quite a treat this weekend.

Regardless of the weather, I think most of us would agree that the 49ers are a better team than Green Bay. But betting on them to win their 4th straight against the Pack in 2 seasons is a little too ambitious for me. Especially if corner Carlos Rodgers can't play. Even in the last 3 losses versus San Fran, Aaron Rodgers has had his way with this secondary. After shaking the rust off last week, he might have revenge on his mind. I could see the Pack spreading them out and challenging this secondary. My gut is the 49ers will try to blitz more to see if Rodgers has happy feet from his injury. Well as they say, you live and die by the blitz. Don't be surprised if you see James Jones connect on a bomb or 2. 

Right now, I am leaning Green Bay, but would also like to enjoy this one without giving myself indigestion when Kaep and Gore run wild on this leaky defense. It's been a long season and this game could go either way. Plus I need to conserve cash for all the Super Bowl prop bets. Good luck fellas.

Very good write up Sammy. A lot of good info here IMO. Thanks and good luck to ya.
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by mrpix:

People act like it's an automatic win for GB just because of the cold/home-field. The cold is bad for both teams but SF isn't Florida. It's cold there year round. 49ers can adjust.

GB has way too many crucial injuries than SF does. Our offense struggled the last couple of games but this is the playoffs. Our w-receiver's have been getting healthier at the right time and GB's wide receiver's aren't as scary as say the Bears' receivers.

49ERS -3 and UND 


Dumbest post, Cali weather is cold to you? 
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by zzziggy:


Dumbest post, Cali weather is cold to you? 


He may have gone a little far with it, but you dudes thinking San Fran is "warm" are on another level.  Especially if it has a nasty breeze from the water

Lows are in the mid 30's which if I'm not mistaken, is hovering around freezing.....which would make it "cold"
 
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Posted: #87
According to the stats PACKERS holds a better record against 49érs in the month of JANUARY... that means PLAYOFFS

PLACE                 S.U.        A.T.S.
ANYWHERRE     4-2         4-1-1               
HOME                   2-0         2-0                   

Please... PICK THE PACKERS and do yourself a favor...Stay Thirsty my friends
 
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Posted: #88
I'm a huge packers fan so take this for what it's worth. I see a lot of posts referring to week 1 when SF blew "us" (Packers) out, which they did. Keep in mind, 1. that was Eddie Lacy' first NFL career game. He is a completely different, more confident runner. 2. Mike McCarthy' was trying to get his personal project, DuJuan Harris implemented into the game plan was diverted his attention for pounding the ball with Lacy, which he will do today. 3. James Starks. James Starks is a x factor today. This game is going to be played in the trenches and Starks has been running exceptionally well when he gives fat eddie a rest.

People talk about weather but IMO, this type of weather favors offenses. I'm taking the OVER46 and if we can get the line to 3.5 I'll be taking the Packers. GL all 
 
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Posted: #89
This game has 7.5 teaser written all over it.  GB +10.5 OVER 38.5
 
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Posted: #90
This game has 7.5 teaser written all over it.  GB +10.5 OVER 38.5
 
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Posted: #91
sorry, I can't listen to anyone if they actually bet on any prop bets whether it be on craps or Football.  Those are under "sucker bets" in Chapter 1 page 2 of the "Handicapper 101" book.. 

 
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Posted: #92
"Coldest winter I ever spent was the summer I spent in San Francisco". Mark Twain 
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by RichieRich97:

Best bet of the week is the niners -2.5. Niners are built to win in bad weather. Watched a lot of packets this year and even before rodgers injury they were struggling to put up more than 7 points before half time. I dont think i would put too much stock in their win against chicago either with their awful defense.

On the road with a rusty Rogers?

 

Black qb for 9ers in the cold or an all pilled up hillbilly for the Pack?

 

Pack

 
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Posted: #94
Love it! Im sf native so i know what he means.50 degrees we go into panic mode and bust iut the city shelters. LOL! Good quote justwin001.going with niners today.
 
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Posted: #95
Mark Twain knows his shit.
 
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Posted: #96

Good week again!  Hope all your games were winners.

I will take my winnings on Indianapolis and San Diego and move on to next week.

Good luck if you're betting on this game.  I was leaning towards SF because all you heard all week was the media hype on freezing weather and how SF would not be able to play in such weather condition.  I think they'll come out and play.  But I'll just sit back and enjoy the game without a wager.

GL 

 
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Posted: #97
The first three games in the playoffs had the Underdog win the ML. The question here is will all four Underdogs win the ML this weekend. Put me in for the Packers to win. I'm going with the trend.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by JustWin001:

"Coldest winter I ever spent was the summer I spent in San Francisco". Mark Twain 

There is no evidence twain ever said that


Look it up
 
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Posted: #99

Quote Originally Posted by JoeMahirap:

The first three games in the playoffs had the Underdog win the ML. The question here is will all four Underdogs win the ML this weekend. Put me in for the Packers to win. I'm going with the trend.

No way all 4 dogs hit.  I'm a contrarian and try to buck trends and go against the public.  9ers for me.  Better team.  Who cares about the weather, it will affect both teams the same.

 
 
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Posted: #100
Ok, thanks shochuman ! You are awesome !
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