Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021

Be interesting to see how the course plays this week. Looks like wind picks up as tourney goes on plus good chance of rain on Saturday. An American hasn't won this since 2015. Throw in a strong field over from the European Tour and a good chance it might go to six in a row. Playing some trends, going against others with my plays. Am playing Spieth and is his debut at this tourney so a crapshoot. Playing few more 1st round leaders than usual but hoping for that long shot to come in. BOL to all!

Outright Win

Matthew Fitzpatrick 25/1

Francesco Molinari 32/1

Jordan Spieth 35/1

Marc Leishman 55/1

Keith Mitchell 190/1

1st Round Leader

Rory McIlroy 20/1

Matthew Fitzpatrick 43/1

Francesco Molinari 43/1

Jordan Spieth 43/1

Sam Burns 48/1

Marc Leishman 54/1

Emiliano Grillo 70/1

Talor Gooch 75/1

Alexander Noren 85/1

Lucas Glover 100/1

Henrik Stenson 100/1

Keith Mitchell 100/1

Top American finish

Jordan Spieth 14/1

Talor Gooch 36/1

Lucas Glover 70/1

Keith Mitchell 70/1

To be honest.  I surprised you didnt have Connors for either 1st rd or tournament 

Some money is better than no money. After Corey Conners shot -6 thru 7 holes I thought it was going to be over quick for 1st Round Leader. Weather was good but afternoon crew definitely had easier conditions. Conners with the bogey on the last hole at least got me a small return with them tied at the top.

1st Round Leader McIlroy 10/1 

Raidernator76- Why surprised I didn't have Conners? Conners is not usually a low 1st round golfer and has never made a cut at this tournament before. Just the risk in one round of golf as the unexpected does happen quite often.  You can probably find Conners at -6 for 15/1 to 20/1 to win it.  I am not putting my money on it but I am sure someone will.

I see.

However,  I'm taking Speith currently 30-1 and Max 40-1

Call me crazy, but I still like them

If it isn't my money, you can go crazy on a 5/1 or a 500/1  

I talked myself out of McIlroy before the tourney started. Unless it is a super weak field or DJ is playing I don't value many golfers under 10/1-12/1 range. If anything I tend to include a favorite or two in my 1st Round Wagers and usually get 1.5x to 2 times value on them. If they don't have a good 1st round than can find them for better odds after it is started. This is a hard course with good weather. Be interesting to see what happens if/when the conditions even get a bit worse. Rory/DeChambeau were dialed in today and still made a few mistakes. Rory absolutely loves this place and even DeChambeau has played good here. I might add action later in the tournament but of now just sticking with my plays.

Spieth will have to drive the ball better or he won't last. He could have easily lost 4-5 strokes on the low end if not for his putter. He is in real good form coming into this tourney is why I put money on him. Max has been hot lately and this is the first tourney in the last few I don't have any money on him.

I really liked Rory, Fitzpatrick, Spieth and Molinari coming into this. You can only cap this game so much. Molinari has a great history here and finished +6 today. At least watching guys like Hatton and Horschel are more entertaining when they go off the deep end. I do pick some guys with bad form for 1st Round Wagers. I wasn't big on Stenson at all. Same time he is 100/1 and has shot a 64 and 67 in 1st round here in recent years. I was playing his form on the course more than recent form in general. Same thing with a guy like Keith Mitchell. Has missed the cut in his last few tournaments but the only two times he has played here he T-6 and T-5. He shot a 7 on a par 4 today. Take that out and would be shooting Homa/Spieth level today. Past form doesn't translate into current form but sometimes is worth the risk with higher odds. Just throwing that tidbit out as not pulling guys out of a hat even if it seems like it  

Hope everyone has a monster round today while the weather is nice. Looks like a nice warm day with 5-10 mph winds today.

Saturday looks like some rain during the day. Weather will be a 10 degree drop over the weekend to high in the 60's. Also looks like wind will go from 5-10mph to likely 15-20 mph.

Already an entertaining morning with the shot Jason Day just hit on 16. He hit it into a bird nest and was trying to identify the ball. A photographer zoomed in and helped identify it for him. Things you don't see everyday on the golf course  

I did add on Keith Mitchell to finish top 10 at 15/1

Watching Speith today is nuts. He makes birdie putts from 15ft+ and also off the green. But misses those of 10ft or less. Hope he has a some magic to pull on moving day. He'll need to pull within 2 or 3 shots after Saturday to have a chance.

I won't be around to watch much of the tournament tomorrow. It looks like rain from mid to late morning on and figure the wind will pick up. Think will be more chaos and see who escapes the least unscathed. Be interesting to see which ball strikers show up in worse conditions.

Jazz Janewattananond shot a 75 in the 1st round and a 65 this round. Literally went from +3 to -4. Interested to see if anyone tomorrow makes a big push or just tries to hold on. Conners has led both rounds and is still the 3rd favorite of now to win. If I put anymore money down it will be after the 3rd round. Likely will just hold off unless Spieth or Fitzpatrick make a bigger push tomorrow.