Posted:
#1
Sometimes in gambling, there are wagers that on the surface look to be coin flips, but you have a very strong feeling one way, and you're forced to lay off...or play it with 100% confidence and not look back.
This week is one of those weeks.
The last couple times I've watched Jason Day play, he's looked off. He went through a torrid stretch last year where he looked like the unquestioned best golfer in the world. But this isn't that time. He had a back injury, and he hasn't looked good since. He has two WD's, and since then he has an unimpressive 12th at the Tournament of champions, and a MC at the Farmers. And in watching the Farmers, he looked bad...especially his irons. And if his irons aren't working at this tournament he's going to struggle big time. So I'm fading Jason Day hard this week.
Dustin Johnson ov Jason Day
Jordan Spieth ov Jason Day
Justin Rose ov Brandt Snedeker
Justin Rose has looked sensational this season since his return. He's showing no signs of rust, no back issues, and he looks like he's going to contend at most tournaments. He's got a 2nd and a 4th place finish in his two tourneys, and I've just been really impressed with him. Snedeker is streaky. Goes from a 14th place to a MC to a 9th. Snedeker has a couple wins here, but Rose had a solid 6th last year, so I don't think Brandt has the tourney advantage. I think rose is in winning form, but Brandt is only in trying to compete for top 10 form.
Going to fade a couple guys I faded last week.
Stewart Cink ov Ryan Palmer
Something doesn't seem right with Palmer. Another MC last week at +4, he hasn't made the cut in 2017. Don't know if he's hurt, or he's got swing issues, but he's struggling. Cink has 1 MC in the last 6 tourneys, and finished 20th at the Farmers, which is worth noting because the surface is similar. Last year at this tourney Cink finished 21st, and Palmer finished 41st.
Tim Wilkinson ov Si Woo Kim
Faded Si Woo because of his back issues last week, and it appears he's still hurt. He shot a +6 last week, and wasn't even close to the cut line. Wilkinson has 4 straight made cuts, and if Si Woo Kim does have a bad back, this is not a good tournament for that. The rounds take forever because of the Pro-Ams, there can be a lot of down time, a lot of waiting...a lot of opportunities for a back to get stiff, tighten up or Spasm.
I'll keep looking at the lines to see if there are anymore plays coming.
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