Jordan Spieth ov Rory Mcilroy first round
Since 2011, Rory has not shot a first round at the Masters under 70. He shot a 74 at the Arnold Palmer first round, and he lost his first round match at the Match play. Spieth in 2017, has 2 rounds over 70, and 5 rounds 70 or better. The last 2 years at the Masters, Spieth has shot 66, and 64. BTW, I’m not worried about Jordan Spieths missed cut at the Shell Houston open AT ALL. He shot 69 first round, then 77 second round so he can conveniently miss the cut so he can get to Augusta. Besides that tournament, he’s finished 12th, 22nd, 1st, 9th, 3rd, and 3rd in 2017. He’s fine.
Dustin Johnson ov Matsuyama
Looking at his past finishes here at the Masters, Matsuyama has a 5th and 7th the last two years. One big problem. Both those years he was coming into the tournament strong, and with several top 10 finishes. This year? Not so much. Since his win at the waste management, Hideki has a 25th, a missed cut, a 45th, and a 51st. I don’t know if you’ve heard of the other guy Dustin Johnson, but he’s got pretty good momentum (sarcastic font) coming in here winning his last 3 tournaments he’s played in. Dustin’s last 2 finishes here are 6th and 4th. I don’t care about the juice here…I’m laying it with no hesitation.
* I don’t mind Spieth ov Matsuyama, or Rory ov Matsuyama either.
Rickie Fowler ov Jason Day
This is just a fade at Jason Day. I feel terrible at his personal situation, but there’s just no way he’s in good form right now. He WD’d at the last tourney he played in, his Mom went through what appears to be successful lung cancer surgery, but he’s going to be a last minute decision to even play. If he doesn’t play, the plays against Day are refunded, but if he plays I can’t believe he’s going to be competitive. Fowler has been in phenomenal form…his last 5 tourneys have all been top 16 finishes, and 3 of those finishes were top 4. Fowler had a bizarre missed cut here last year, but before that he finished 5th, and 12th.
Jon Rahm ov Jason Day (can’t completely go to love cause Rahm hasn’t played here ever)
Same reasons as above. I know Rahm hasn’t played here, but 5 of his last 6 tourneys he’s finished top 10, and 3 of those were top 5 tourneys. He’s in incredible form.
Phil Mickelson ov Henrik Stenson
Stenson still hasn’t figured out his putting, and to add to that, he hit a few shots into the water and in the rough last week. And to not have your putting figured out coming into Augusta is not ideal to say the least. He’s missed the cut the last 2 tournaments he’s been in, which is insane to say about Henrik Stenson. Phil made the cut last week, had a couple top 7 finishes before that, he’s in ok form. Phil is all over the board with his finishes at Augusta…in the last 5 years he has 2 missed cuts, and two top 3 finishes, so we’re just hoping we get good Phil this week. But even we get bad Phil, Stenson could be even worse.
Marc Leishman ov Brooks Koepka
Interesting matchup here, but if you dig deep inside the numbers, the play is pretty clear. I used a pretty clear combo of tourney history, and current form here, and here’s what I see. I started with Leishman’s tourney history, and it’s not good where as Koepka has ok tourney history. Leishman has missed the cut 3 out of the 4 Masters he’s played in, and he’s also got a 4th place finish. In 2016 Leishman missed the cut, but also wasn’t in good form with a 51st place finish and several missed cuts. In 2014 he missed the cut, but again…not good form. No finishes inside the top 30 leading up to the Masters. In 2010, the same thing. However, this year he only has one missed cut, and every other tourney for him he’s finished inside the top 27, and his last two tournaments he has a win, and a 9th, and the win was a tourney that Rory McIlroy played in. Koepka has a 33rd and a 21st at the Masters the last 2 years, but here’s the thing…in those years he was in pretty decent form. Not missing the cut, several top 10 finishes. This year, however, Koepka has 4 missed cuts out of 6 tourneys, a 42nd, a 48th. He did ok in the Match Play, but match play isn’t the same as tournament play, and his group was terrible. So I think based on the past performances of these guys matching up with their current form at the time…it leads us to the conclusion Leishman will be better.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ov Brooks Koepka
Same thing with Koepka above…Matthew Fitzpatrick hasn’t missed a cut on the PGA tour this season, and has 2 top 16 finishes in his last 2 PGA tour events, and he finished 7th at the Masters last year. (Fitzpatrick is the big underdog here around +130, so that's a big bonus)
*A$$hole play of the week
Russell Henley ov Gary Woodland (can’t love this play cause of Woodlands situation)
I’m not going to go into the details of what’s going on in Gary Woodland’s personal life because it’s terrible, and you can look it up yourself, but I have a hard time thinking his head is going to be in this tournament. Henley in great form, nice win last week, several top 15 finishes this year, and he’s finished 31st, and 21st here the last 2 times he’s played here. Thoughts to Woodland and his wife.
Tyrell Hatton ov Louis Oosthuizen
I know Hatton hasn’t played at the Masters before, but here’s all i need to know about Tyrell Hatton. In 2017 on the PGA and European tour, he doesn’t have a finish worse than 13th, and he’s got 3 top 5 finishes as well. In his last 4 tournaments, Louis has been decent at the Masters, but not incredible. 15th, 19th, 25th and a missed cut the last 4 years. Hatton has been putting incredible lately, and that’s huge at Augusta.
Will Henrik Stenson make the cut?
+400 is no. I'll take it.
These are for fun. I'm not betting anything on these, but if you're into betting top 5's, top 10's, and top 20's, here are some odds I like. Also, a couple of group plays at the bottom might be interesting.
Top 5
DJ +110
Russell Henly +1600
Top 10
Fowler +160
Paul Casey +300
Adam Hadwin +600
Top 20
Tyrell Hatton +150
Marc Leishman +175
Alexander Noren +300
Top Australian Player
Jason Day Even
Adam Scott +175
Marc Leishman +400
Curtis Luck, Rod Pampling, Vijay Singh
Kinda like Marc Leishman here. +400 Day with the personal story off the course, Adam Scott with the putting woes, playing bad…+400 for Leishman is pretty good.
Group Play on Bovada
Group C
Stenson +275
Adam Scott +300
Paul Casey +375
Sergio Garcia +375
Bubba Watson +450
And finally...
My favorite thing about the Majors, is the Made/Missed cuts, and the parlays you can make out of them. My buddy on the podcast had never tried them, and then we ended up wasting a half hour going over all the options. So much fun with these. Warning: You can go broke big time on these, so if you want to play any, do it for fun, and don't bet very much on them.
Here are some guys to consider...
Molinari -190 2 missed cuts and a 50th place finish last 5 Masters. However, only 1 missed cut this season. Wrist injury. Stay away.
Bernd Wiesberger -210 Hasn’t missed the cut this year, hasn’t missed the cut at the Masters.
Martin Kaymer -200 Not fantastic course history, but he’s playing great this year. 5 straight top 25 finishes.
Kevin Kisner -235 37th here last year, 6 out his last 7 tournaments top 25 finishes.
Bill Haas -275 Never missed the cut here.
I hate to say this, but Woodland +165 to miss the cut.
Russell Henley -245
Tommy Fleetwood -225
Adam Hadwin -215
Marc Leishman -285
Couple of parlays
Fowler, Casey, Hadwin to make the cut
+120
Dustin, Speith, Kisner, Haas
+140
Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Tyrell Hatton, Bernd Weisberger
+170
Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Gary Woodland to miss the cut
+5000
Dustin, Rory, Spieth, Fowler, Rahm, Rose, Casey, Hatton, Hadwin, Henley, Haas, Kisner, Wiesberger
+2100
$100 pays $2,211.53
| Thu 4/6 | 8009 J.Day makes the cut | -510 | |||||
| 8:00AM | 8010 J.Day won't make the cut | +370 |
Day clearly has the talent to win, and I believe he has the new found focus to do it. His game isn't going to disappear in 2 weeks. In fact, the time off will probably benefit him and his focus.
Australian Day, 29, pulled out of the WGC Match Play two weeks ago to be with his mother before she had lung surgery.
The operation was a success and he is now focused on a second career major.
"I was very emotional when I won my first. You can just multiply that by a hundred I think," he said before Thursday's first round at Augusta.
I think you're wrong on Day, but I truly appreciate your thoughts here in this thread.
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