Valero picks

Ian Poulter ov Daniel Summerhays

Here’s what’s not in any stats you’ll find.  Ian Poulter needs to make $31,000 this week to keep his PGA tour card.  Last week he needed a good finish, and he finished 11th…this week I expect him to be the most focused golfer on the course as he has the most to play for.  Summerhays has pretty incredible tourney history here as he’s finished 13th, 7th, 4th, and 2nd the last 4 years, but he’s not in nearly as good as form as he was then.  His last 8 tournaments, he’s got 3 missed cuts, and every finish outside the top 45.  I like Poulter to be playing hard in every round fighting for a top 10 finish.

Danny Lee ov Jaime Lovemark (love)

After a terrible start to the year, Danny Lee is playing really good, and if you can identify these guys that weren’t playing good, and start to heat up, you can get some juicy matchups, and this is one of them.  Danny Lee had 4 missed cuts and a WD  in a row, but after the Honda Classic, he has 5 straight made cuts including 3 top 25’s.  The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Danny Lee has finished ahead of Lovemark.

JT Poston ov Jason Kokrak (love)

Poston may be a new guy on tour, but he’s just better than Kokrak right now.  Poston hasn’t missed the cut since the Pebble Beach Pro Am, and since that tournament in 5 tournaments, he’s a combined 29 shots under par.  In that same period of time, Kokrak’s combined score in 5 tournaments is 7 shots over par.  The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Poston has finished ahead of Kokrak.  Poston hasn’t played this tournament before, but Kokrak missed the cut here last year.

BOVADA SPECIFIC PICKS

Luke Donald ov Patrick Reed

At first glance, it would seem Patrick Reed would be the obvious play, but he’s the worse golfer right now.  Last year, Reed finished second at this tournament, but he had 5 made cuts previous to that including 3 top 10 finishes.  This year he has 2 straight missed cuts, and no finishes better than 38th in the 4 tournaments before that.  Luke Donald hasn’t been fantastic, but he has a 2nd place last week, only has one missed cut in his last 6 tournaments, and that was over a month ago, and Luke finished 13th here last year.

Adam Hadwin ov Billy Horschel (love)

Betting against Billly Horschel is dangerous, cause he’s inconsistent, and it’s even more dangerous cause he seems to like this tournament.  He’s finished 4th, 3rd, missed cut and 3rd the last 4 tourneys here.  But I look at this year, and Hadwin has been better and more consistent.  In fact, the last 6 tournaments they’ve played in together, Hadwin has finished ahead of Horschel in every tournament.

Ryan Moore ov Jimmy Walker

I just really like what I’m seeing from Ryan Moore right now.  The one thing he’s showing this year that he’s been missing in years past is consistency.  Five straight top 30 finishes including a really solid 9th place finish at The Masters.  Walker has been good this year, but Moore has finished ahead of Walker the last 2 tourneys they’ve played in, and Walker missed the cut here last year.