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Valspar picks

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Posted: #1

Podcast is up and I haven't laughed that f*cking hard in a long time.  Thanks to everyone who subscribes.


Picks this week are...



Bill Haas ov Patrick Reed


Not sure what the deal is with Patrick Reed.  I don’t know if he’s got a kink in his swing, or if he’s just disinterested…hangover from the Ryder Cup experience, but his last 4 finishes are 61st, 59th, 23rd, and 68th.  Bill Haas has been really good this year, 32nd last week, and before that 3 straight top 20 finishes.


Graham Delaet ov Billy Horschel


Delaet has been playing great recently.  His last three tourneys he’s finished inside the top 17, and two of those finishes were top 10 finishes.  Horschel had a great 4th place finish his last tournament, but before that a missed cut, and two finishes outside the top 60 and a 24th.  I think the 4th place finish is the outlier.  Give me the golfer with the momentum here.


Buenos Hun An ov Russell Knox


Knox is the ultimate fade material right now.  Two missed cuts and a 70th his last 3 tourneys.  He’s playing awful.  Hun An hasn’t been fantastic, but he hasn’t missed the cut all season, he’s got a 13th, and a 6th place this season, so he’s got potential to go low.  Gotta fade Knox til he gets it together.


Martin Laird ov Russell Henley


Martin Laird has 3 top 9 finishes the last 5 tourneys he’s played in.  In all the tournaments that Henley and Laird have played in this season, Laird has finished better than him.  Henley has a missed cut this season, 43rd last tourney.  I just think Laird is really good, and is a lot better than Russell Henley.


Ian Poulter ov Hudson Swafford


I don’t get why Poulter is the underdog here.  Here’s all you need to know about this play.  Poulter hasn’t missed a cut in the 2017 PGA season.  Since Hudson Swaffords win, he hasn’t made a cut.  Easy play here.


Stenson ov Justin Thomas


I know Justin Thomas had a great finish last week.  We had a couple bets on him…Rahm ov Thomas, Garcia ov Thomas and someone on twitter had Snedeker ov Thomas, and those plays went 1-2.  However, Thomas had an eagle from a long shot he holed out from the fairway on day one, and then of course his hole in one.  He also had a couple 60 ft chip ins and putts.  Take away his hole in one and give him a par.  Take out the holed out shot from the fairway, and give him a birdie instead of an eagle.  Take away one of those long chip ins.  Now the bets against Thomas go to 2-0-1.  I just think Stenson is better, and Thomas comes down to earth this week.


Bovada Picks


Grahm Delaet ov Bubba Watson



Kuchar ov Reed




 
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Posted: #2
Had a long discussion on the podcast today about taking our full tourney picks and making the same bets first round.  Long story, listen to the pod if you want the full explanation, but I am playing these full tourney and 1st round.
 
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Posted: #3
I wish I could listen...
PM me if you have a chance.

Good luck this week

jw11
 
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Posted: #4
Was already looking at Delaet myself... Stenson ov Thomas I like alot but the juice is a bit pricey for me. I do have a very large wager on Stenson finishing 9th or better. 

Hun An ov Knox was a good hit last round but if Knox doesn't shoot 10 over that last round I think it woulda been close... 

GL on your plays though might tail a couple
 
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Posted: #5
solid Alan good luck this week!!  
 
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Posted: #6
mitt likes reed to win the whole thing.  that could be a problem.  however, i don't think mitt has a good feel for the tournament this week.  he also likes some dude name shawarma to win.  that's not even a person.  that's that mystery meat things that sits vertically on a pole that the middle eastern dudes cut off with a 3 foot knife and throw it in a pita and pretend like it's lamb although the geomotry of it all doesn't fit.  it's pretty good though so i ignore all of that.

if there was a guy named gyro or falafel in the tournament, mitt would probably pick them to win it as well.  anyway, we've struggled going against mitt in the past but the dude is off his game and i like our chances this week. 

shawarma.    it's like some bleached meatloaf thing fell on a festivus pole.  i do recommend t though.

https://shawarmakingonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/shawarmachicken.png



 
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Posted: #7
 
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Don't know if ya'll heard but Schwartzel was hit today by his pro-am partner and really messed up his wrist had to withdraw from the pro-am event. He said he will play the real tournament but...

"He said his left hand went numb and eventually reached a point where he couldn't hold the club. Schwartzel still expects to play the tournament. He says there is no nerve damage, only some swelling, and he plans to treat it with ice and pain killers"

Maybe I'm reading too much into it but my book is offering Stenson -115 ov Schwartzel RD1 and I just HAMMERED it. 

 
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Posted: #9
https://www.golf.com/tour-news/2017/03/08/charl-schwartzel-hurts-wrist-when-hit-shot-amateur-partner
 
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Posted: #10
Watson over Schwartzel 375 to win 300 round 1
Stenson over Schwartzel 390 to win 300 tournament 
 
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Posted: #11
Sorry ^ wrong thread
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

mitt likes reed to win the whole thing.  that could be a problem.  however, i don't think mitt has a good feel for the tournament this week.  he also likes some dude name shawarma to win.  that's not even a person.  that's that mystery meat things that sits vertically on a pole that the middle eastern dudes cut off with a 3 foot knife and throw it in a pita and pretend like it's lamb although the geomotry of it all doesn't fit.  it's pretty good though so i ignore all of that.

if there was a guy named gyro or falafel in the tournament, mitt would probably pick them to win it as well.  anyway, we've struggled going against mitt in the past but the dude is off his game and i like our chances this week. 

shawarma.    it's like some bleached meatloaf thing fell on a festivus pole.  i do recommend t though.

https://shawarmakingonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/shawarmachicken.png




These keep getting better every week.  
 
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Posted: #13
why did stenson withdraw last week , anything wrong with him?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by mariner24:

why did stenson withdraw last week , anything wrong with him?

He drank the water in Mexico and got a royal case of........"stomach issues".
 
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Posted: #15
Sherm
Good info on Schwartzel

I had already just bet Stenson -130 v Schwartzel Round 1
May bet more
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

ShermGood info on SchwartzelI had already just bet Stenson -130 v Schwartzel Round 1May bet more


My book went up to Stenson -175 then back down to -115 but his -1/2 was still -140... clearly a mistake. I absolutely hammered Stenson -115 1RD. If I lose I lose but the value is still there on my book offering -115 while my other shows -160
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Sherms:



My book went up to Stenson -175 then back down to -115 but his -1/2 was still -140... clearly a mistake. I absolutely hammered Stenson -115 1RD. If I lose I lose but the value is still there on my book offering -115 while my other shows -160

Heck yes you made the right play.  I'm aggressive with the amount I bet on golf bets, but again...I always say don't bet so much that one play can crush your bankroll.  Golf can be weird at times.  GL brother.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


Heck yes you made the right play.  I'm aggressive with the amount I bet on golf bets, but again...I always say don't bet so much that one play can crush your bankroll.  Golf can be weird at times.  GL brother.

Haha absolutely, nothing is a gimme but when I spot something like that I'm going ham forsure! 

Looks good so far, let's close it out.

Any late round 1 plays?

Leaning Berger +0.5 ov Thomas (-110)
 
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Posted: #19
Nothing's jumping out at me.
 
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Posted: #20
looks good good weekend big chief
 
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Posted: #21
I feel like we have to take Stenson -1/2 ov Charl again 2nd round...
 
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Posted: #22
Only 11 strokes behind on my Laird ov Henley play!!!  
 
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Posted: #23
Here's a sneaky good 2nd round play.

Chad Campbell ov Danny Lee

Just looked up Danny Lee's 2nd rounds...The last 4 2nd rounds, Danny Lee has shot 77,77,73,74.  Campbell is phenomenal in 2nd rounds, but he's shot 71 the last 2 tourney's.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

I feel like we have to take Stenson -1/2 ov Charl again 2nd round...


Was thinking same thing, Stenson looked really good. If I bite gonna be smaller than today's bet though.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Sherms:



Was thinking same thing, Stenson looked really good. If I bite gonna be smaller than today's bet though.

It's hard to imagine Stenson will go -7 again today, but man...he looks so freaking sharp.  No mistakes, no wasted shots, and before his WD last week he had 8 straight top 10's.  I feel like it's hard to get a first round and a second round bet to go your way when betting on the same matchup, but I just don't see the justification for betting on Charl.  If it loses, whatever, but I think it's the correct play.
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