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replied to Week 16 Discussion - Only adults please in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by suuma: Patriots@Jets Right now I am looking at this game from a transition standpoint. When these teams first met at Foxboro, the Jets lost by 7 but they were almost an equal opponent despite not having Chris Ivory who got hurt pre-game. He had a few carries but wasn't the same. The Jets also lost Pryor, Skrine and RIchardson at one point. Pryor was a key loss because he was covering the TEs quite well. After Pryor went down, Gronkowski was 6/7 and before he was 5/9. They had a lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter and Marshall dropped an easy TD which resulted into 20-16 instead of 23-16. Brandon LaFell also dropped like 4-5 passes (2/8) so that probably made up. Between then and now the Patriots lost Edelman, Dobson, Amendola and two OL Wendell and Jackson. Stork, McCourty and Chandler are highly Q when I get it right. The Jets are very healthy. Again, the Jets match up very well with the Pats. I highly doubt that Tom Brady will have a huge completion game with this receiving corps. The Pats look vulnerable when they can't get their TEs into a rhythm. The Jets are one of the best teams against TEs as shown in game 1 until Pryor went down. As we know, the NE defense isn't great and got problems when not facing a 3-5 win team. Jets offense will have a better game than in October with Ivory healthy. It sounds crazy, but the Pats don't really need this game as the Bengals and Broncos meet each other on Monday. Bill Belichick won't go all in here to desperately win. Last season in week 16 they went to New York in an equal situation and they won a 17-16 stinker against Geno Smith. Lean: Jets +3 Solid points. I think one thing that must be considered before going all in on NYJ is the poor play of the OL. Cowboys exposed them a bit stuffing the run game and putting pressure on Fitzpatrick. The Jets averaged a mediocre 2.8 yards per carry vs DAL. This is after GB racked up over 44 rushing plays for 5.2 YPR and 2 rushing TDs against DAL the previous week, so they should have been softened up a bit. Damien Woody was on twitter saying it was well known within the analyst circles that the OL is a weakness of the Jets and the playcalling and Fitzpatrick quick trigger has really masked it in most cases. Offensively NE ranks 6th in Weighted Offensive DVOA and NYJ rank 14th. So the efficiency numbers skew towards NE. NE has a sneaky good defense, (Weighted DVOA rank 7th vs Jets rank 6th). Not to say this isn't a good spot for the NYJ but I think we have to consider these factors in our capping of the game. View Post \| View Thread	suuma	65	December 23, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 16 Discussion - Only adults please in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by suuma: Just a couple things about the rush yards statement: 1. Total yards mean exactly NOTHING, especially rushing yards. Teams who lose many games, always give up a lot of total running yards because opponents wear them down in the second half and have less throws. The best 8 defenses in total rush yards all have 9+ wins, because they have a lead way more often and their opponents try to pass instead of running. But a team can have a good defense efficiency-wise but could give up tons of yards. It's all about efficiency though. Winning teams have more total rushing yards in more than 70% of the games, but yards per carry is around 50%. It's just because winning teams run more often than losing teams. 2. SF gives up 4.6 YPC on the road but just 3.3 YPC at home. On 25 carries, this equals 32.5 total yards more. They also give up 11.8 PPG less at home than on the road. Like I said, it has been something special about their home games this year. I can't remember where I picked up the following tidbit of information (podcast or forums) but a respected pro dropped a gem about the SF HFA. He said that the turf is very soft and spongy and makes for an extremely slow field relative to the rest of the league. If you think about it, makes perfect since given the lack of talent/team speed on the 49ers and the way they are able to stay in games/win at home. View Post \| View Thread	suuma	65	December 23, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting Top 10 SuperContest consensus went 5-5 this week. Unfortunately for those of us scrapping to get into the top 50, that CAR collapse was bad overall swinging the top 5 consensus picks from 2-3 to 3-2. I went 2-3 which gives my team a slight pulse to making the top 50 but low probability. NYJ missed XP cost us dearly. DEN 2H collapse was absolutely the dagger on my week. I looked up the probability of losing ATS in that spot. Road dog of 6+ up 14 at halftime, covers approximately 95.2% of time. so that was a ~5% probability event. The poker equivalent of getting rivered by a 2 outer. Brutal. 43-30-2 View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 22, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting Also people are sleeping on CIN rookie TE, Tyler Kroft. I could swear I was watching a skinnier Eifert. He looked very comfortable running routes and displayed great hands. He looks like he lacks the physical bulk to hold up as a blocker on a consistent basis but as a pass catcher I didn't see any dropoff. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting Good information, solid analysis. A couple counterpoints: CHI @ MIN - Bears are 5-1 ATS on the road this season w/ the lone loss due to Clausen in SEA. - Vikings 4-2 ATS at home but this is by far the largest spread they've been asked to cover and against a divisional rival no less. - Vikings beat the Bears in soldier field so this has revenge game written all over it. Also of note the bears held a 20-13 lead late into the 4th quarter. - Vikings still down some key defensive starters w/ Barr and Smith and Griffen likely out. - MIN efficiency numbers are still subpar. I think they can win, I just think it's a lot to ask for them to beat a division rival by a TD. CIN@SF - I see this as an overreaction to 2 things: CIN losing Dalton, and SF recent homefield success. - McCarron has more physical talent than Dalton and the confidence of consistently winning and outperforming your doubters (2 Nat'l Championships) - McCarron doesn't have to be great, his supporting cast is top 5 in the NFL. - I watched the PIT@CIN game again and he showed a lot that wasn't reflected in the box score. On downfield throws (>15 yrds) 5/8 62.5% completions 151 yards 1 TD 1 INT 18.9 Y/A for a 106.3 passer rtg. - His pick6 was the result of well disguised coverage by PIT. It was made to look like man coverage w/ CIN having a man beater crossing route called. Unfortunately for him it was Zone and happy stayed home and got the INT. On the 2nd INT it was a miscommunication with AJ Green which is likely a result of his inexperience. - Teams tend to rally around star player injuries and outperform. I think b/c CIN lost to PIT and has Dalton out they will be focused in this game unlike other big favorites in SF. ATL (exposed as frauds) and ARI (overlooked them). - Key injury for SF OL Alex Boone is out. His backup was absolutely atrocious. CLE got 9 sacks! CLE got 9 sacks! - I think CLE also exposed them in the run D. The worst rushing offense in the league gashed them for over 200 yards. Crowell and Johnson both averaged ~6 yards per carry. Once something like that is exposed on film, it's very hard to make changes w/ limited personnel and talent. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting @RallyCaps I'm likely fading SF, and MIN this week. I'm curious why you like them? View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting @RallyCaps Funny you say we think alike. My team's record in the contest is 41-27-2 (42 points). View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting @RallyCaps Good enough for me. Regarding Cooper I think he has hit the rookie wall a bit. I was making that statement about 3 weeks ago on the pregame forums. Overall I don't trust the coaching staff of OAK all that much either. I was on OAK last week to get the cover but in reality they should have been obliterated in that game. I generally like to fade teams w/ inside-out wins or losses the next week. In that same vein I think Osweiller has really been let down by his receivers. D. Thomas has had the drops as well as Vernon Davis running backwards and dropping balls with his brick hands. Fortunately those are fixable mistakes going into PIT. I think the +6.5 is a slight overreaction to the last few weeks and especially last week's box scores and not the actual games played. PIT gained 14 points off turnovers. 1 pick six which was really good defense by William happy staying home in zone coverage which was disguised as man coverage. And another INT with CIN driving, due to miscommunication between McCarron and Green. With CJ Anderson likely back, and some renewed focus I think we get Denver in a favorable spot. I can't remember the last time the #1 rated defense across the board was a 7 pt dog to anyone. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting Would love to get some more opinions on this GB game. I listened to the fantastic beatingthebook podcast yesterday and Chris Andrews and Ace were both bullish on OAK +3 but moreso on the over in that game. Their basis was that GB defense is very susceptible to the run (DAL gained 8.5 YPC, and they give up 4.4 YPC on the season (26th)). They also said that OAK has success whenever they can run the ball. Furthermore Ed Fang said that Dr. Bob's research shows that CB injuries are often more important to a defense's success than a star LB or DL. GB CB Sam Shields is out w/ a concussion. My logic for looking at GB, is McCarthy calling plays makes them a more physical and unpredictable team to defend. They use Kuhn a lot more to help the run + pass game, and they play a ball control type of game (30+ min T.O.P. vs DAL). Additionally I found some trends to consider: GB since 2011 as 3+ road favorites +SU: 16-5-0 (5.38, 76.2%) +ATS: 12-9-0 (-0.95, 57.1%) avg line: -6.3; avg_score: Tm 27 Opp 22 Also a fade Oak trend: • Since 1989 teams off 2 consecutive games of 2+ fumbles as Home Dog: +SU: 138-277-0 (-5.77, 33.3%) +ATS: 185-214-16 (-0.80, 46.4%) avg line: 5.0; avg_score: Tm 19 Opp 25 Furthermore I still think OAK is slightly overrated at home due to the only two SU + ATS wins vs BAL and NYJ. They are 2-4 SU + ATS at home. Is this a trap game for GB or are we getting a fair price/good value on the road favorite? My Yards Per Point Margin Differentials say the line should be ~GB -4.5/-5. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Rallycaps: Gambled fairly hard last week and paid, had HOU and MIA. Fell fairly large, unsure if I even have a shot to cash (this is my first year). 40-28-2 VICEROY Saint Louis -2.5 Green Bay -3.0 Tennessee +14.0 Minnesota -5.5 San Francisco +4.5 I looked at this earlier in the week. Last year the top 50 wasn't nearly as close as it is this year. I think you're only 2.5/3.5 games back from this week's top 50, and that spot is only ~3 games from top 10. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Rallycaps: I considered NYJ as well, and factored in the look ahead. However, you really think this is a look ahead? I mean, they know they aren't catching NE now, as NE clinched. Dallas, in Dallas, on a Saturday I feel is enough to stay focused, that and the Wildcard and only three games away. I don't know, I just felt this isn't as big a look ahead spot as I would normally think. Funny because I actually view it more of a look ahead if I am the Patriots. Just my two cents, regardless I like NYJ and never would be on Dallas here. Good Luck. I'm in agreement. I don't think it's a true lookahead either but every piece of information that is available should be considered before placing the picks, that's all. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 15 in NFL Betting I'm surprised more people don't like GB in this spot. McCarthy taking over the offense completely changes the makeup of the team. Love the Bears, Broncos, Jets picks. The hook on the Jets makes me somewhat nervous, but I believe we have Dallas in a dreamcrusher spot. They got demoralized in GB and not only did they lose but PHI + WAS + NYG won. They literally have nothing to play for and their season long goal of getting to the playoffs are over. I can't imagine the focus or effort being there in practice this week or during the game. Meanwhile the NYJ have to keep playing well to make the playoffs but more importantly they have to prove to themselves they can win on the road. They've only won 2 road games and that was @IND and @MIA (London). They lost to NE, OAK, and HOU. If they win the wildcard they will have to win on the road. I have to believe they will focus on this game. Lookahead to NE should be noted. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	25	December 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to the system is alive and well, week 15 picks in NFL Betting Good luck. I have similar picks this week as well. I appreciate your honesty. Most people don't want to accept the cold reality of probability. Especially in sports... I use Yards per point margin differentials to get a neutral line and it says take Titans +14 too. I don't know that I could stomach it tho. Patriots will remove Delanie Walker from the game leaving Mariota to look for Wright, or DGB. Neither is a true #1 WR, so I believe that will allow a lot more flexibility with the secondary. It looks like good value, but I don't trust the Titans offense to 1) move the ball consistently, 2) score TD's when they get to the RZ. View Post \| View Thread	footballsmart	4	December 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 14 in NFL Betting Credit Vikings. They literally accomplished exactly what I thought they wouldn't be able to. They converted 3rd downs, played ball control, stuffed Cardinals on multiple 3rd and short situations and scored 2 TD's to keep pace with Arizona. For Arizona it's another prime situation where they've underperformed the betting market expectations. That puts the highest scoring team in the league at 2-4 ATS in situations where they are favored by 6+ points. Vikings also used ARI defensive blitz tendencies against them for easy throws underneath. Their blitzing was as predictable as AP 1st down runs. I had a feeling this Cardinals team may be overrated from a betting market sense but after tonight I'm sure of it. Good team, definitely the class of the NFC but against a motivated/organized team they struggle no matter where it is. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	19	December 11, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Anyone like Chiefs +900 or Steelers +500 to win it all? in NFL Betting I would look at Steelers before Chiefs. Justin Houston being out really hurts their pass rush. They had to start blitzing to get pressure on Carr last week and weren't all that stout vs the run. Against SB caliber QB's blitzing leaves your DB's exposed. Steelers don't have the best the defense but they stop the run effectively and hit hard. They also gave more playing time to Bacari Rambo in the Colts game and he stepped up relieving some of the pressure and fatigue issues that caught up with them vs SEA. Their offense can keep them in any game vs any opponent and they have a SB QB and HC even tho Tomlin leave's me shaking my head w/ some of his decision making at times. View Post \| View Thread	SCC	18	December 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to i don't know about this one fellas hahahahaha - TNF in NFL Betting Using raw probabilities ARI has ~57% chance of winning. Given the average scores in the situation that ARI wins + MIN loses being a ~12.5 pt deficit I like the odds here. View Post \| View Thread	Mancity	39	December 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to i don't know about this one fellas hahahahaha - TNF in NFL Betting Some stats to consider: Since 2014: Cardinals have won ~72% of their games. Given a win the average score is 28-16. Vikings have lost ~46% of their games. Given a loss the average score is 13-26. View Post \| View Thread	Mancity	39	December 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to i don't know about this one fellas hahahahaha - TNF in NFL Betting Copied from another thread. For all the Vikings backers here is the only way I can see Vikings being able to stay close in the game: 1) They have to win Special Teams/field position. The offense is not efficient enough to drive 80 yards and score TD's consistently. 2) They have to break tendencies and throw on 1st down in the short, intermediate areas + run AP on 2nd and 3rd downs. Currently Warren Sharp charted Vikings as running 60%+ of the time on 1st down this season. 3) They have to shorten the game and convert 3rd downs. Since week 10 they've been about league average ~39%. Unfortunately for them ARI has been converting at ~47% over the same period. 4) They have to get off the field defensively on 3rd down. Unfortunately for them again, since week 10 they've allowed opponents to convert at a 50% clip (6th worst), while ARI has been league best at ~17% conversions. 5) They have to score TD's when they get to the Red Zone. On the season MIN has the 2nd fewest TD conversions (13). ARI has had the 4th most (29). View Post \| View Thread	Mancity	39	December 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 14 in NFL Betting I'm on the Cardinals tonight as well. I don't usually play Thursday games due to the inherent challenge of picking the other 4 games w/o a full week of analysis including practice/injury reports but I thought the situational analysis across the board this week lined up for taking this calculated risk. The cluster injuries to Minnesota's defense being the largest factor for me, along with the short turnaround really gives the impression that this is a momentum situation w/ ARI and against MIN. Not only cluster injuries but we're talking pro-bowlers at each level of the defense. It's just difficult to mix and match within a 4 day turnaround and then have everyone on the same page come game time which includes travel. I really see 1 way that Vikings can stay close in this game and it requires multiple factors to work. 1) They have to win Special Teams/field position. The offense is not efficient enough to drive 80 yards and score TD's consistently. 2) They have to break tendencies and throw on 1st down in the short, intermediate areas + run AP on 2nd and 3rd downs. Currently Warren Sharp charted Vikings as running 60%+ of the time on 1st down this season. 3) They have to shorten the game and convert 3rd downs. Since week 10 they've been about league average ~39%. Unfortunately for them ARI has been converting at ~47% over the same period. 4) They have to get off the field defensively on 3rd down. Unfortunately for them again, since week 10 they've allowed opponents to convert at a 50% clip (6th worst), while ARI has been league best at ~17% conversions. 5) They have to score TD's when they get to the Red Zone. On the season MIN has the 2nd fewest TD conversions (13). ARI has had the 4th most (29). View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	19	December 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LV Super Contest Week 14 in NFL Betting Rudy22 a lot of props for maintaining this thread even when struggling. I can imagine it's hard to find the motivation to do so. I'm sure I'm not the only one who checks the thread weekly for ideas and angles. View Post \| View Thread	rudy22	19	December 10, 2015 View Post \| View Thread

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