ballinonabudget

YTD 3-5-1

Cincy -3 (-120) - 8 units - play of the week

Jags +4 (-120) - 5 units

Colts PK - 4 units

Jets +9 (-120) - 3 units

Miami -2 (-120) - 3 units

LAC -3 - 2 units

Det -5 - 2 units

GL everyone!

YTD 3-5-1

YTD 3-5-0

PHI iggles -6 - 4 units

YTD 0-0-0

NO -3 - 5 units

SEA -4 - 4 units

PIT +1 - 3 units

CLE +1 - 3 units

TB +4 - 2 units

WAS -7 - 1 unit

CHI -1 - 1 unit

JAGS -3 - 1 unit

Small parlay: Cle, NO, SEA

GL everyone 

Just heard these two stats that go with the trenches conversation too:

8 of the last 9 super bowl winners have registered more sacks than their opponent 

Teams that allow at least 5 sacks in the super bowl era are 4 and 15

Rams are much more likely to have more sacks today

Props:

Sony Michel over 5.5 attempts (-120) - 2*

         - Not that I necessarily like Michel to play well or anything in particular, but this line just stood out to me big time. Especially considering the general more conservative approach that usually takes heed in the super bowl, Cam Akers big-time fumbling issues this post-season, and my opinion that the Rams win this game pretty handily and maintain a steady lead. Michel had almost 20 carries for the Pats and scored a TD in the super bowl back in 2019, so he has super bowl winning experience as well along with his ~850 yards on the season and the fact that he's carried the ball the following # of times in each game since 12/5: 24, 20, 18, 27, 19, 21, 13, 1, 10. That translates to this prop hitting 88.9% of the time the last 9 games aside from the factors mentioned. Plus, I love that no matter what he does with these carries is irrelevant. Yes, please.

Mixon over 28.5 receiving yards - 1.5*

       - Mixon catches almost all of his targets as he's got really sticky hands. The Rams also have a stingy run defense and will have Ramsey taking away one of their receiving weapons all day long. Uzomah is also banged up. That's aside from the trench battle, which makes it more likely the Bengals end up in some down and distances, run screens, and IMO will be playing some catch up. I like this one a lot!

Odell Beckham over 65.5 receiving - 1*

        - Odell's been playing great and I expect there to be an entire gameplan devoted to Cooper Kupp. Plus, he's amped up, found his home in LA, has a baby on the way, Drake's got a bet on this, which Odell knows, and is set to hit an incentive and cement his legacy with a win today. I like Odell to show up today, so I'll take it for fun.

Stafford over 285.5 passing yards - .5*

       - More for fun, but just feel Stafford comes to play today and I like Odell to have a good game and Kupp is pretty unstoppable, so why not.

Odell Beckham to score the first td - .25* to win 1.75*

GL everyone!

LA Rams -4 / 10*

Was hoping that this would drop to 3.5 at some point, so I could buy it down to 3 just to be safe at the key number, but I'm seeing 4.5 in most places now, so I'm officially locking this in because I see the Rams winning this one pretty handily. The Rams have the advantage in almost every category, let alone playing with home field in the Super Bowl. They are a group of veterans, many of which have either been to the Super Bowl or have been itching to cement their legacy here for many years. Those that have been to the big game (including McVay with the coaching experience) have already experienced a loss there too and won't be keen to repeat their mistakes this time around. They also aren't going up against one of the best coaches ever in Belichick. Instead, they go up against Zac Taylor who was actually the QB coach for the Rams in the last SB, so him and McVay are both familiar with each other.

The biggest by far advantage comes in the trenches, with the Bengals being one of the most sacked teams in the NFL and the LA Rams having one of the most dominant DLs (now with Von Miller as a part of the squad too). That to me is the key to this game. Super Bowls are won and lost in the trenches, so having that be a HUGE advantage for the Rams, plus then adding in the veteran experience, home field advantage, and equally-impressive offenses, I see the Rams handling business today. Rams running defense is also stout, so if they can keep that up and move the ball vs a worse Bengals defense, Burrow will be stuck in long downs and playing catch-up mode, which just makes the case even worse when it comes to the Rams DL vs the Bengals OL. 

Best of luck all & cheers!

Regular Season: 5-5 (+2* not including juice)
                       * = 50
==================

Giants +7 = 4.5* (-110)

Buffalo +3 = 4* (-110)

Bengals +3 = 3.5* (-120)

Browns +3 = 3* (-120)

GL 

Regular Season: 0-0
                      * = 50
==================

5* = Detroit Lions +8 (-120)

3* = Rams PK (-110)

3* = Giants -2.5 (-110)

1.5* = Pats -3 (-110)

1.5* = Bears +8 (-120)

1.5* = 49ers -3 (-110)

1* = Eagles +4 (-120)

1* = Dolphins +4 (-120)

1* = Titans -4 (-120)

1* = Chargers +7 (-110)

GL 

Locking in so far:

Pittsburgh -3 - 4*

      - both starting S, starting LB, & now top DL out for Atlanta & off of 2 very long grueling heartbreakers both at home & now have to go to Pitt who’s on a b2b home game after getting embarrassed by their rival a very good Ravens team. Falcons also are a dome team in a tough field. Pitt takes it - also getting a good number off Pitt’s disappointing start this year. May add to this honestly after writing it all out lol.

Baltimore -3 - 3*

Redskins +7 (bought .5 pt) - 3*

will try to add rest of the write ups & plays tomorrow 

GL !

Hell of a start to the season LC!

Thoughts on the Cardinals this afternoon? I like them as well, so good to see we’ll be on the same side, but curious of your thoughts behind the play. 

I could honestly see this going either way with the Vikings winning this game SU or the Rams covering the 7 if the defense gets some turnovers, but considering all of the circumstances & the line value, I'll take the Vikings +7 

The most important factor to me here is that the Rams have played pretty bad teams so far vs 0-3 Oakland, 0-3 Arizona, & the Chargers & now coming off those wins everyone seems to be crowning them the SB favorites already (even though they def are a key contender) & saying that the Vikings have lost it after not showing up in 1 game against the Bills. As a result, we are getting some line value being given a full 7 points in a big pre-playoff matchup.

Aside from the addition of Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are pretty much the same team from last year aside from missing Everson Griffin for this game, which yes hurts them, but the Rams missing 1 of their top CBs in Talib & the other best corner in Peters who will be active, but in no way fully healthy evens things out. LB Mark Barron is out for the Rams as well.

The Vikings got as far as they did last year without Dalvin Cook & his return is HUGE for this game against a Rams D who's weakness has always been against the run & now with possible big issues at corner as well. It seems clear to me that the Vikings overlooked the Bills last week looking ahead to this game & then next week's revenge in Philly & rested some of their key players thinking that they could coast through that one, but they got punched in the mouth. Josh Allen looked like a star in the making & put the team on his back last week & the Bills DL whipped up this Vikings OL, but although the Rams DL is legit, currently they have some of the fewest sacks in the NFL & either way I expect the Vikings OL to step it up this time around. It hurt them a bunch last week that they were in such a big hole off the bat & they had to drop back all game & couldn't even try to run. This week with Cooks back I expect them to set the tone on the ground & chew up the clock & do their best to keep a not deep Rams D on the field & the electric Ram's offense off of it. 

The Vikings have by far & away the best defense the Rams have seen all year & with Cooks back & the Rams short-handed I expect them to be able to keep this one close & even if they do end up down 2 scores the cornerback issues for the Rams leave open the possibility of a back door cover. 

IMO though I could see the Vikings challenging for the outright here. Think that defense will be FIRED UP & the OL as well. Rams also don't cover the TE well, so Rudolph should be able to get himself some redzone work tonight & Cooks is big bc they are also bad at covering the RB out of the backfield. In a big NFC matchup that could have bye implications I could see both teams trying to establish the run a bit more tonight as well. If so, that would help the underdog in terms of covering a higher number than maybe we should have had.

Honestly the thing I'm most nervous about is LC on the Rams haha, but gotta go with my gut!

Vikings +7 - 4* 

(I also sprinkled a little on the ML bc if the Vikings come to play they are coming for the W not just the cover)

GL ALL!