BleedGreen30

1. The NFC reigns supreme.  4 of 5 last SB champs.  Won head to head in 2013.  6 of top 9 teams w/ highest Vegas odds to win next year.  Hate to admit it, but I think Niners were actually best team.  Either way, the pendulum has swung to the NFC big time!

2. The Books actually do know what they are talking about. Granted most didn't predict that score, but Seattle opening slight favorite made sense to many in Vegas. QBs are the dominant position yet still an overrated betting factor. Most QBs won't affect the line by more than 4 pts, but often public will swing an inured QB close to 7 points.

3. WE are emotional fools.  The pros & books are not.  We like QBs, last weeks score, and skill positions (and cheerleaders).  The pros have a more balanced prospective on all aspects of the game.  I had a great year at 55% (I don't consider myself a great better just disciplined).  I do my best to stay consistent w/ the pro side even when it feels asinine.  The public will not.  And over the long run, they will lose.  Funny thing is most know that should work but don't have discipline to stay the course...

4.  Manning is a Top 5 QB all time.  Not worse, not better. 

Denver's D is playing well.  But they better put pressure on Wilson or else that 27th ranked pass D will be exposed and or Wilson will run loose.  I think if Seattle run's effectively, it spells trouble for Denver.  First key is who wins turnovers (just like any game), then I really believe its predicated on sacks/hurries.  We shall see soon...

Agree like SEA but hate Carroll. 

Just Billy Walters?  Dude there's a lot of professional gamblers that make a living out of it.  They got to be rich up front bc you need to be able to absorb lots of losses.  Sharps have a lot of money, great resources, and a serious gambling addiction.  Unfortunately most of us only have the third attribute.

Sharps bet favorites and overs.  As a matter of fact I think favorites were the sharps side during most of this year's playoffs.  They use the public's short-term biases, subjectivity, and just plain stupidity against them to grab value (extra points or better odds).  Its that simple.  It does not mean they win all of the time - maybe 55%-60% over LONG stretches of time with great volatility.

Not sure what you are basing the 7 point line on.  With all due respect, smart money would empty their bank accounts with anything over 3.  Anything can happen in a game that is probably close to a coin flip, but it doesn't sound like you are being objective. 

And you are wrong about smart and public jumped on the early line.  It was all public -- which is actually public information.  The sharps laid off the line because they knew they would get more value when bettors like yourself jumped on it and it rose to 2.5. 

Again remember there is A LOT more public money on MOST super bowls.  This is just another game to the Sharps.  They care just as much about the Cavs-Nets game in the afternoon.  They seek value/opportunity.  But the public sees this as the big game that they have to bet.  Therefore there is a lot more influence by the public -- especially so far.

Sounds like you are in the majority...

But remember that home field advantage applied to both teams.  Seattle was actually 6-2 ATS on the road.  Not too shabby.

Respectfully, you are wrong by Vegas standards.  If one team wins by 20 for example, it doesn't mean that they should have been favored by that much.  If the teams played ten times in a row, maybe then you could take the avg scores and judge what the line should be.  There's a randomness to outcomes that Vegas understands better than public...

So someone expalin this to me.  What was the final line on DEN vs NE...4.5?  And the current SB line is 2.5?  Home field should move it 3 points, possibly more in SEA and DEN with those significantly HF advantages.  So if I am doing my math right that means the public (which I am assuming is the primary influence of the current line) thinks NE is -1 over SEA in neutral field.

Are you crazy?  People were talking about how the Colts (team not ready yet at best) had a chance in NE.  Then when NE took it to them, as they should have, people got punch drunk on NE.  Then DEN beats them handily and now SEA is a 2.5 dog.

It doesn't add up ..SEA is 2-3 points better than NE.  If you disagree, see their respective divisions.  IMO the NFC has become somewhat dominant over AFC winning 3 of last 4 SBs, 4 game advantage head-to-head in 2013 with a 123 point differential advantage, 

Denver could dominate, who knows, but this game should be a pick em or slight SEA fave.  What am I missing?

Its the only game that the public has significanlty more money to offer than the pros.  The pros don't care about this game anymore than the basketball game on earlier that day.  If there's perceived value, they take it.  On the other extreme when Rutgers plays Syracuse at noon on a Saturday, the public can't come close to the professional money- if the pros like that game.

Dude, everyone's entitled to an opinion and I hope it works out for you but yeah 30 points? 

And Wilson is a complete QB -- sure, he's not a HOF (top 5 minimum all time) QB.  But he got the job done against a better D 2 weeks ago.  He's been "slumping" a bit, but stil got a 104.5 QBR (I know that doesn't tell the whole story but its a comprehensive stat).

All I am saying is Denver better get some pressure on him because when he gets time, he is the king of broken plays.  ANd I personally believe that the pressure is predicated on the effectiveness of the Beast running....

I agree with all of the above comments for the most part.  First and foremost...yes Vegas cleans up on the props - no doubt, so essentially no big deal who wins.  But that doesn't mean Vegas always has even close to even money on both sides for various reasons.  I would also clarify that there are three parties here...BOOK, SHARPS, and PUBLIC.  None of the three parties have uniform beliefs but there usually is a consensus from each.  Based on opening line and movements to date...I'm guessing the consensus from each is BOOK = EVEN, SHARPS = SEA -2, PUBLIC = DEN -3+.  Denver could win by 3 TDs, who knows. 

But to the previous comment from Mangowoman (who shared some good stuff & I am too a fellow degen)..."and if fading the public worked every time or even more than half, then why not retire and make a living betting on the opposite side the public is on in every sporting event everyday of the week? it's just silly. bet who you think has the best chance to win or cover the game."

IMHO I think that's a little extreme.  Good betters, even the pros or sharps, lose a lot obviously.  But the name of the game is about getting value.  For example, Gronk getting injured (which is a regular thing these days) affects the line by 1/2 point by the pros & books.  But the public would likely put a much larger premium on that.  Also the public tends to put a recency bias on what they saw last week, over-value the QB position & still positions, undervalue the line play, etc.

If you get a point or two of value in your bets, then you theoretically should win more than half most of the time at least over the course of a season.  It just takes 52.5% to breakeven, right?

I am taking Seattle simply because I think there is some value there, because that's the pro side.  I have found no better system to fall back on.  But it has to be done with consistancy.  Best rule of thumb- take the side that you can best live with WHEN you lose....