bestfightstory

They are Thunder-not Lightning.  They got no electricity in their bodies!

I don’t know.  Not crowning them yet, but their top FIVE draft picks all showed up and looked ready for this League.

Any insight?

What kind of bet did William Hill have to take to move Owen Power from +900 to Even Money after a night where the -250 Favorite to win the Calder picks up another goal and assist?  Other books still showing him between 10-1 and 14-1 and have adjusted Beniers to -310 or -350. I don’t understand this.

@slamspurs

It was a legit inquiry.  

I am being transparent about my bets and my loyalties/allegiances/biases and my desire for other perspectives and my lack of readily available resources.  Nothing other.  

I have been here for ?15? years or more and didn’t have an active account for some of that time.  Rarely ever post but frequently read.  Attention isn’t the goal. 

Figured there might be some other options available to me that I have not considered.  This kinda action can twist your brain in knots and other voices can help untangle.  Maybe a different DIVISION WINNER parlay using Niners and a couple other teams for 3-5K?  PropSwap has crossed my mind to maybe sell one of my my positions.  Part of my goal was to just read the room and see how others felt about my bets’ chances.  I try to take in as much info as possible.  Biggest thing I am considering now is semi-weekly/selectively betting the Niners to win for like 1K per go.

I like Seattle and Atlanta and San Fran to all win in week 10 and I will be attending the game in Germany.  That I know, for certain.

thanks for the replies, all!

Seattle +1  6-3 1st in NFC West

Minny +1   7-1 1st in NFC North

Cincy +1    5-4 2nd in AFC North

Buffalo -1   6-2 1st in AFC East

Atlanta-1    4-5 2nd in NFC South

While I don’t see it as easy-I do love 5 of final 7 being played at home.

Pete’s teams (with Russ) finish strong.  And Seattle’s defense has been trending upwards and Seattle has 6 rookies starting who are theoretically getting better as they get valuable experience.

I make a case for them because I believe in their chances to win this Division.

I see them finishing most likely with 10 wins but I think 11 is attainable.  12? Improbable.  Again, so much depends upon today, and vs Bucs in Germany.

thanks for the input!

Nothing against your logic.  I just can’t bet against Seattle games yet.  I believe they are the better team today.  Several metrics working in Cards’ favor but Seattle is 7-1-1 in last 9 in AZ.  AZ is 31st vs TEs and Seattle has the ability to feature them.  Divisional kitchen sink game for Arizona does concern me but I just can’t bet it that way.

re. SF loss.  

Seattle has been starting six rookies: they lost their first NFL road game in San Francisco’s home opener in week two on a short week coming off a huge emotional Monday night football win against the Broncos.  Couldn’t have been a worse spot for Seattle.  

Seattle can be a difficult place to play in Big games and Pete more or less owns San Fran (with a few exceptions).

We will see what the circumstances are for the rematch but obviously I am terribly afraid of that Niners team or we would not be having this conversation.

Again, I appreciate the insights.  They all carry weight.

great to read all the responses and I have considered virtually EVERYTHING that has been said.  I find it extremely helpful, though to challenge my thoughts with the reasoned perspectives of others.

I want to add that I AM a Seahawks fan, but I am also a gambler and study football closely.  I am a believer in Pete Carroll’s culture and I don’t think this team is going to fade with five of their last seven games at home.  

I do think that as far as their season Win TOTAL goes (and, thus, Division) these next two games are critical.  

AZ and Tampa are on the verge of a point of no return.  If Seattle can facilitate that, and hit their bye 7-3 or AT LEAST 6-4 then I feel very good or pretty good about their chances to win this Division. 

And Geno has frankly played like one of the top few quarterbacks in the league. He is dialed in to this offense.

Niners have the better players but Seattle has a better team.  Right now.

and yes I do not have thousands of dollars sitting around or I would strongly consider a 15 or 20 thousand hedge on the Niners in the next week or two. 

thanks again, everyone.  The conversation is part of what makes this so much fun.

@Jimmy_Cats

 Thanks

Fade yourself.  You will win.

@dduukkee

 Thanks for the solid input.  I will send a little more on Monday.  It helps to have others to bounce ideas off of.  Even when there is disagreement.  A variety of perspectives is helpful.  As the Niners and Ravens are the two teams that seem positioned to do me the most damage I have considered betting on each of them each week-or when the spread is somewhat tight to win.  Should they lose, it strengthens the chances of the parlay cashing.

Again, will send you more info Monday.

re Seattle I will add this:  They play two more games before the Niners play again.  Should they win in Arizona and the very very early game against Tampa in Germany before the Niners play the chargers next Sunday night….. divisional odds will be very interesting.

also I already have 1K on rams to MISS playoffs at +140.  I think they are toast.

and I have a solo Seahawks 100 to win 3100.

and I have Astros AL/Seahawks/Falcons 200 to win 26K

lol

@jpot34

 Yeah.  Let’s get serious.  He doesn’t need a reason.

I am heading to Germany for the Seahawks Bucs game the following week and would love to see an expired Brady with a Bucs team that knows they are done.  Go Rams.

You did a really good job of describing why these teams are both fuxked up and “a toss up” so why not play another game?

Hey, All.

back on September 9th I placed a $200 3team parlay for Bills (-300) Vikings (+240) and Seahawks (30–1) to win their Divisions.  Payout is $28,000.  

Did the same with Bengals in place of Vikings for $26,000 payout.

Any thoughts on how and when to hedge these.  looking for other perspectives and insight.  I understand the Niners and Ravens are the primary threats to these wagers.

Especially the first one as Vikings and Bills are *knock on wood* looking fairly secure.

Then it must be a steal at +130?

Right over your head. ‘Oakland’ doesn’t have a football team.

Oakland won’t even show up.

Could you rephrase that?

No.  They were not.