Brady2Gronk

Giants +8.5 (teased to 15.5 preferred with something else for even money parlay)

Daboll is a better coach than people think  and the falcons have as big a question mark at qb as they do. Home field at Atlanta never feels intimidating and giants have nothing to lose. Potential tank situation is the one concern, but hey they have 8-15pts to play with. 

#11 Colts ML, -3 (bought down to 2.5,) teaser +3.5/4.5 

Pair this with anything above for an even money parlay. Brutal loss last week for Indy but their schedule is so favorable and their path to the playoffs is still possible if LAC implodes. Brian callahan still cant figure out his offense because of qb play and this is a must win for the Colts like never before..at home nonetheless.

Because his ypc is like 0.7 this season. Dude sucks 

@Ppkay

 What are u talking about? Colts need to win out against three shit opponents. They then need broncos to lose their next two against strong opponents. Or they need lac to drop their last two against weak opponents. 

Op, reason for -200 is because colts are coming off a brutal loss when you consider the mistakes they made (and who beat them,) and nfc south games are nutty sometimes

#6 Cardinals ML 

Cardinals are not worth 225 to win 100, nor should they be 4.5 favorites over anyone, particularly on the road. A parlay with something is the only thing I could get myself to do. This is a spot where I shouldn’t bet the game at all, but Carolina is terrible and the cardinals HAVE to have this game. This is what Kyler Murray always does. The desperation, potential (do the cardinals really have potential?) and weak opponent make this a spot that’s hard to resist. 

#7 Texans +3.5 (prefer teaser even money parlay with them at 8.5)

This was a gut feeling I had going into last week without factoring in the mahomes injury. Bet he plays, but his elusiveness won’t be the same. Hard to ever bet against KC, especially at home, because of mahomes and the best HC and DC in the league. That said, Texans are doing what they’re supposed to even if it’s not the

explosive offense they could be. This is an AM game which is the least pressure of any game, but personally, Texans and Stroud play good teams close in high stress games and think this is one of them. Honestly, both these teams play games close in general and it’s hard to imagine anything different. 

#8 Seahawks ML, +3 (prefer teaser even money parlay at +8.5)

I am going to contradict myself on the next two plays because the Seahawks and Bucs are both streaky teams and the Seahawks got owned up front on offense and defense against GB. Seemingly, this should start a new cold stretch for Seattle based on how this season has gone. That being said, Geno playing is as huge a factor as mahomes this

week because of his command of the offense and more importantly, the desperation they need to come out with in a back-to-back home stretch vs great NFC north teams, getting embarrassed Sunday night. They need to show out if they want to prove to themselves they are a contender, let alone the NFC North on the fritz. 

#9 Cowboys +4 (prefer teaser even money parlay at 10.5 or 11.5)

Bucs lost 4 in a row, now have won 4 in a row. They are playing outstanding offense in a predominantly defensive minded scheme of coaching, which is challenging to beat. That being said, they tend to play to the level of their opponents and Cowboys play decent when they have nothing to lose. Just a feel on this one, and the next nfc east game…

#10 Washington ML, +3 (prefer teaser even money parlay at 8.5)

Faith in Washington in a division matchup against a team that played far more physical down the stretch in their first matchup. At home now and coming off a win that has to feel like house money because they played so poorly off the bye and still squeezed one out on the road

#1: Parlay Ravens ML & Lions ML -125

Two elite teams (even with the injuries to DET,) who feel like they’re playing must win games. Bears suck, though one of the few teams to cover against the Lions. Either way, they suck and Detroit has had #1 seed written all over them this year and losing that and at the same time potentially losing a home playoff game of all things if they slide against SF or MIN as well would be catastrophic. Ravens lost another game where they fell victim to Steelers football and it’s hard to imagine a team this talented, at home, losing again to a team clearly compromised without Pickens and maybe Watt. 

#2 Ravens spread (slight advantage being at home over the lions)

#3 Lions spread 

#4 Bengals ML & Ravens ML (-140) / Bengals ML & Lions ML (-145)

-140/-145 isn’t ideal, but neither is a three team ML parlay. Same info as above but extend this to the Bengals who have a real chance at making the playoffs because they definitely have the ability to win out, if the Colts can fall to one of the three shitty teams they play, Miami loses one and broncos lose to KC week 18 (play bengals next week,) then Cincy gets in and nobody wants that. Imagine bills/chiefs (2 seed) vs CIN (7 seed) first round. Also, browns are awful, their defense has regressed even at home, and they’re relying on ford and jeudy..

#5 BUF/GB -14 (teaser of -5.5 or 6.5 preferred with something to make an even money parlay)

Two elite teams needing wins (bills 1 seed, packers seeding and potential back door NFC north champs) against terrible teams. 

Miami/cincinnati/indy fans might have been smart to root for LAC this game. Broncos could so easily lose their next two games against said bengals and chiefs. Chiefs week 18 matchup, though, could be a resting week for them depending how the last three weeks play out for the them and the Bills. Either way, wentz could spoil it for the broncos. 

Colts have a better shot than people think. That 2nd half against Denver last week stung like a mf. They own the tiebreaker over Miami because they won in like week 6 against the dolphins. Colts schedule is a potential cakewalk if they can find a little rhythm against three teams who may be tanking. 

Dolphins currently own the conference record tiebreaker if colts lose any of their three games and dolphins win out. 

Chargers finish on the road, but against NE and LV. Their seed could dramatically increase 

@bluecompass

Or the old crew with mark jackson 

@bluecompass

 She’s great what are you talking about? They need Jeff van gundy, not jj reddick

Mavs are on the same trajectory as the last series vs LAC, and I think it continues. I think OKC wins game 5, though. They played tough the last two games even though their offense has been inconsistent.

Mavs have the best tandem of two players, but the talent of OKC’s starting lineup, along with the decent three off the bench (joe is a sharpshooter,) and someone who can truly takeover with sga seems like it will be too much for Dallas here soon. 

The big two, Dallas’ experience and Jason Kidd are huge factors, and the Mavs are hungry; the Thunder just seem too electric for them..

Some teams are just hard hats. The Knicks are too steady for the pacers to win multiple games in a row. If the pacers cover, it’ll be a sweat 

Maybe the Knicks game is too, but I’m glued to the Knicks and bias but getting 5.5 with that team (plus they’re already used to anunoby being out and tyrese could be hurt) seems like the play. 

I’ve been glued to the nuggets too and thank goodness they didn’t lose me three straight. Still, this series has had a close game and a blowout by each. Twolves are hungry but the reigning champs just showed out in your arena. Tough game. 

@NutinButtLove

Lol. They’ve both been excellent coaches so far in their tenures, especially ty lue. His superstar roster makes him seem like he is getting carried (like the perception spoelstra used to have,) but he has a plan A, B and C every night because of the potential serious injuries/load managements he has to deal with. Leonard can carry anyone, but he doesn’t. Harden and PG are so dependent on rhythm….

On the flip side, Dallas is big man-averse and Kidd really has to find ways to utilize two ball dominant guards (and no one else consistently) on a nightly basis. 

So I agree with op, but not the baseless comments people get tethered to.

I think miller and Turner by decision carry awesome value, too. Only ones im opposite is the jiri, but im not leaning the other dude by much. I don’t see a ton of value on zhang, but I’m definitely game for the “not go the distance” in that fight; some sneaky value on the other Asian chick by KO, or decision

With you on most of these! Lopes is so good. Hope we don’t get burned cause only -140/-150 is bananas to me. Deveison, Turner, lopes, with Jim miller would be such a sweet start

volk, moreno and yair lost so not sure on this take

@Buffalobob89074

Everyone loves to talk about narratives when they are often times, contradictory. Chiefs whoop Miami and then win impressively at red hot buffalo. The following week they’re +3.5 against Baltimore. With your logic, that line was screaming Chiefs too. I’d argue the same situation in the Bills game. 

The only narrative is there is no narrative against Mahomes, he just wins. 

Poole is an elite (open) shooter with a nice handle so I think that’s where the disconnect lies with him. He probably thinks he starts on any other team too, but he is Jordan clarkson 2.0

This entire game feels like a “no bet.”

O/U: Hard not to reflect off the Warriors Grizzlies series last year. First game of the series was fireworks but the second game was more of a playoff type feel, not even getting to 210 points. That was more on the Grizzlies slowing the game down than the Warriors. The Warriors usually are fine getting into a shootout with anybody, plus Monk isn’t scoring 32 again. Saying that, Warriors had success in the half court offense getting easy shots in the paint until they got three happy. This makes me feel like the game is going under 240 (which is a ridiculous playoff number,) but I’m not sure the Warriors have road defense and the Kings took 98 FG attempts and 32 FTs. That’s an insane pace. No bet.

Spread: Not a lot of data here outside of the warriors abysmal road record. Playoffs are different, but it’s been an issue all year.  I have this strange feeling that the Kings go up 2-0 and the Warriors win the series 4-2. No bet.

Takeaway: Warriors odds will probably go up to -300 for the series if they win tonight, but you’d get some great odds betting them to win the series if they lost tonight. That might be a play. 

No bets here, figured I’d share my thoughts. 

@paletta007

 Not to nitpick but Holloways last two wins were more than solid..