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Quote Originally Posted by beware: 34-18-2 ats Cle under 99 and Phi under 108 Hey man I sent a friend request. Can you accept so we can PM and compare 2nd half strategies? I'm current using a strategy that's at 32-10 but relatively new and could just be a very lucky streak. I've been watching your plays and we're on the same side 80% of the time. The time's we are on opposite sides are split 50/50 on the winner but usually come down to the final 30 seconds. I think if we put these two strategies together we could have an even better strategy. PM me and I'll share details on how to pick my spots! |
beware | 120 |
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Hey guys, I've been working on a model during this NBA season and I think I've finally gotten it to be accurate enough that I'm willing to share the results. I'll be posting plays here daily for the rest of the season to see how it does. It will be on a 1-5 unit system, always risking to win x amount of units. I will also be posting these on twitter @bonwl so feel free to follow me there as well. Best of luck, tail or fade, you decide!
#NBA 12/19/15 Cha ML -123 2u Chi ML +112 2u Ind ML +109 4u Lac ML -110 1u Lac/Hou u212 -101 2u #NBAModel |
Bonwl | 1 |
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August 22nd:
Picks: 1u Phillies (+116) $21.54 to win $24.99 1u Indians (+123) $21.54 to win $26.49 3u Dodgers (-117) $64.62 to win $55.23 5u Mets (-117) $107.7 to win $92.05 5u Mariners (+103) $107.7 to win $110.93 1u [Lad + Nym + Sea] (+598) $21.54 to win $128.81 HUGE day today, lots at risk but I'm feeling good about the day. These big days have been nice to me in the past, let's see what the future has in store for me!
Tail, Fade, Watch from a distance, you decide. BOL! |
Bonwl | 52 |
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August 21st Recap:
Picks: 3u Nationals (-147) $64.44 to win $43.84 Loss 3u Padres (+115) $64.44 to win $74.11 Win 1u Jays (-148) $21.48 to win $14.51 Win 1u [Wsh + Sd] (+254) $21.48 to win $54.56 Loss Record: 2-2, +$2.70
New Bank: $1076.81 New Unit: $21.54 Total: 19-15 +$76.81 |
Bonwl | 52 |
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August 21st:
Picks: 3u Nationals (-147) $64.44 to win $43.84 3u Padres (+115) $64.44 to win $74.11 1u Jays (-148) $21.48 to win $14.51 1u [Wsh + Sd] (+254) $21.48 to win $54.56
Had a few bad days in a row followed by a few days off, hopefully we can come back HOT!!! BOL |
Bonwl | 52 |
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Hey guys I'm back!!
Sorry for being MIA the last week I've been super busy and haven't been able to sit down at the computer before the games actually started lol. I'm just finishing up today's plays and they will be posted in a little bit! I hope I didn't lose all of my followers haha! |
Bonwl | 52 |
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Sorry for the late post here, no plays as of yet for tonight. Will update if something pops out for the later games!
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Bonwl | 52 |
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August 16th Recap:
Picks: 1u Braves (+105) $25.54 to win $26.82 Win 5u Indians (-129) $127.70 to win $98.99 Loss 3u Rays (+107) $76.62 to win $81.98 Loss 1u [Tb + Cle] (+267) $25.54 to win $68.19 Loss August 16th: Another 1-3 night, -$203.04 Yeesh, what a brutal weekend. Almost lost everything we won in the past week... but hey, we're still in the +$ overall and that's what matters, right? New Bank: $1074.11 New Unit: $21.48 Total: 17-13 +$74.11 |
Bonwl | 52 |
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August 15th Recap:
Picks: 3u Rays (-124) $87.12 to win $70.26 Loss 3u Mariners (-120) $87.12 to win $72.60 Loss (lol 22-10??) 1u Giants (-103) $29.04 to win $28.19 Win 1u [Tb + Sea] (+225) $29.04 to win $65.34 Loss (by 20 combined runs lol wow)
August 15th: 1-3, -$175.09. Biggest loss on the season today, Yikes! New Bank: $1277.15 New Unit: $25.54 Total: 16-10 +$277.15 |
Bonwl | 52 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Pendo: Strategies so weighty on primary pitching parameters are ok, but weakened on weekends, and weaker still backing roadies, especially during dog days of August. BOL Bonwl! Could you expand on how they are weakened on weekends, while backing roadies and during the dog days of August? I'm not disputing that you're wrong I'm just curious as to why you say this or if there's any data you can use to back it up! I'm always interested in learning more! Perhaps you're right about how weighty my model is on starting pitching. This is still a work in progress though and can always be altered! |
Bonwl | 52 |
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I'm out of town and quite intoxicated lol so I'll just post the plays that qualify and update everything tomorrow night!
Atlanta 1u Cleveland 5u TB 3u Parlay Cle + TB 1u |
Bonwl | 52 |
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August 15th (EDIT)
Forgot a play! Picks: 3u Rays (-124) $87.12 to win $70.26 3u Mariners (-120) $87.12 to win $72.60 1u Giants (-103) $29.04 to win $28.19 1u [Tb + Sea] (+225) $29.04 to win $65.34
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Bonwl | 52 |
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August 15th:
I'm running a little behind today but we have two plays for today. Once starts in 10 minutes and the other is tonight! Picks: 3u Rays (-124) $87.12 to win $70.26 3u Mariners (-120) $87.12 to win $72.60 1u [Tb + Sea] (+225) $29.04 to win $65.34
Heading out of town for a couple of days so I'm not sure if I'll be able to post any plays for tomorrow or Monday! I'm bringing my laptop but I don't know if I'll have Wifi or have the time. BOL! |
Bonwl | 52 |
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August 14th Recap:
Picks:
2u Indians (-139) $52.48 to win $37.76 Win 5u Astros (-208) $131.20 to win $63.08 Win 1u Parlay [Cle + Hou] (+150) $26.24 to win $39.36 Win 3-0 on the night again for + $140.20! That's 8 straight winning wagers. 9-2 L11 singles, 3-0 on 2-game parlays last 7 days! We're on fire!!! New Bank: $1452.24 New Unit: $29.04 Total: 15-7 +$452.24 |
Bonwl | 52 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement: Well, you asked me to take a look so here I am. I think if you can increase your bankroll by 900% in 7 weeks I will be a follower next year. That is just a little unrealistic, so my advice would be don't get greed driven by the hoped for goal and start seeing plays where they really don't exist. If you double your bankroll in 7 weeks that is a really good achievement, and it looks realistic at the moment. Since I don't know your methodology I can't comment on that, but BOL You're probably right about that being an unrealistic goal, but because of my aggressive approach and the parlays that I play, I believe it is possible. In under 3 weeks prior to posting on here I increased my bank roll my 575% by strictly following this system. I'm never going to force plays as I have a strict set of rules and guidelines that must be met for each play. This is why there have been some days with no plays at all! I hope to have you as a follower next year regardless of how I finish off this season though! |
Bonwl | 52 |
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Hey man! My buddy just linked me to your threads and it looks like you really know your stuff! I love the write-ups, would be cool if you did one for each pick but I know how much time that takes so I don't blame you at all lol!
Would be cool if you checked out my thread and gave me your thoughts on my approach/picks! BOL Key |
KeyElement | 43 |
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August 14th:
No plays to recap from yesterday. Today we have 2 singles and a parlay! Picks: 2u Indians (-139) $52.48 to win $37.76 5u Astros (-208) $131.20 to win $63.08 1u Parlay [Cle + Hou] (+150) $26.24 to win $39.36 Our 5 unit play is a little juicy tonight but I can't argue with the results. 5 unit plays are 12-0 since I started tracking this system!
Tail or Fade, BOL! |
Bonwl | 52 |
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I was just looking back at yesterday's numbers because I was away all day (updating my spreadsheet) and the Mariners qualified as a 5 unit play! Wish I had been able to check before the day games started. We could of had another 5 unit winner at -109, and the parlay would have been a 3 gamer at +441! But oh well, we still won huge yesterday and we're moving on to the next day!
Still no plays for today to post. Will update in a bit |
Bonwl | 52 |
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August 12th recap:
Picks: 4u Dodgers (-194) $91.64 to win $47.24 Win 4u Indians (-116) $91.64 to win $79.00 Win 1u (Lad, Cle) Parlay (+174) $22.91 to win $39.86 Win
Solid 3-0 sweep last night for $166.10 profit! New Bank: $1312.04 New Unit: $26.24 Total: 12-7 +$312.04 |
Bonwl | 52 |
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August 12th:
I missed the day games today but here's some night plays! I'm on my phone at an amusement park so I'm not going to do all the math right now but the plays are:
Picks: 4u Dodgers (-194) 4u Indians (-116) 1u (Lad, Cle) Parlay (+174) |
Bonwl | 52 |
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