Bookie_Crushers

North Carolina vs Minnesota UNDER 51 (-115)

4 Units

*Best price DraftKings

Biggest threat is UNC's offense but they're on road in a P4 opener so I expect them to not go for jugular on most drives. Gophers return nearly whole O-line and stud RB in run heavy offense from last yr while beat writers have raved about UNC's defensive improvement all offseason.

@bookie_crushers

@Maldinii

You’re right. I was having a moment last night. Carry on. Disappearing back into the Covers abyss now. Now that you mention it, it is a beautiful day to get outside (then watch some footy).

@CoFred

I do cap myself. My plays for this tourney w/ write ups in this forum are fortunately 4-0 but just get buried beneath this guys’ pinned thread. Everything I do is for free, here and on X; not trying to get anything out of it.

You know there is over an hour between matches right? If we assume, that he was too busy to give us the “just kidding on France” update until after it lost, then it seems like a pretty “unintelligent assessment” to not consider the earlier game in the group having an impact on the later game, where Austria was favored to win, which they did.

You also mentioned “applying it to his record”.  Where are the record updates on this thread? I have seen none and instead just the next day’s picks to bury the trainwreck from the day before. I just think it’s a disservice to the forum community that this is the permanently pinned thread at the top as if it’s gospel.

Nice work

If I’m the basement dweller, then what does that make your multiple responses to my post?

I’ve simply hopped back onto Covers for the Euros. I stand by my opinion. This guy’s thread is pinned to the top above all others indicating some importance/responsibility to them. Naturally, a lot more of this forum will tail as a result.

@Ken23lau

Point taken.

I appreciate your takes/write ups but this is a pretty unforgivable post, especially for a 2 unit play. So now we’re to believe that you didn’t consider the other teams in the group and/or Austria beating Poland being a possibility, even though you capped that game as well? It reeks of ‘saving face’. 

I’m sure you would’ve made this same post had France won. 

Posted Euros Plays:

4-0-0   +7 units

Netherlands +0.5 vs France (-130)

2.6 Units to win 2

*Best price BetRivers

Why are DiamondJack and Flynt threads pinned above all others? How does one attain that treatment?

My point was that common thought would be what you are saying, but because they already slayed the giant of the group and have the lowest ranked team last, they could afford to play more freely with accessible points in game 3. I would say Slovakia did that, xG was 1.2. Double digit shots on target combined.

Austria PK -175 vs Poland

3.5 Units to win 2

*Best price BetRivers

I posted separately with a writeup for this one and it was flagged as spam for some reason, so posting it in here in order to still share it. Too tired to retype it out, but feel strongly.

Slovakia vs Ukraine OVER 2 (-170)

3.4 Units to win 2

*Best price Unibet

With Romania up next, and an unexpected 3 pts already in hand, Slovakia can definitely play more freely than most teams in this 2nd group stage game and Calzona loves high block & staying on front foot vs equal/inferior offensive competition as demonstrated throughout qualifying vs everyone besides Portugal, so don't let the 1 goal total of the Belgium match fool you (where 2 Lukaku goals were called back by slim margins). On the other side, Ukraine will be forced to take a liberal approach if things remain level fairly early on, out of desperation, with Belgium up last and a perceived 1 point at best being available in that one. There were 5 goals combined last time these two played competitively.

@DiamondJack

I think there’s some perceived Mbappe injury uncertainty, at least as to how effective he’ll be w/ the mask, affecting this line a bit.

Thx. All my picks are on X for free but will try to keep posting most over here again through rest of Euros & Copa.

Bet365, Caesars, and BetRivers all had it at -200 this morning. I see it's at about -210/-215 on those sites now. I probably like the value on 0.75 slightly better now as a result.

Scotland +1 vs Switzerland (-200)

2 Units to win 1

*Price widely available

Let's not forget, Scotland gave up a PK then played 10 v 11 for over half the match in game 1. Switzerland was severely outplayed by Hungary in the 2nd half, a bit forgotten due to the late Swiss goal when Hungary through kitchen sink at them offensively. Feels like a freeroll here, as it's hard to fathom a 2 goal margin for Swiss who will be more focused on securing 3 points if they were to get a 1 goal lead, since they don't have a realistic chance of catching Germany on goal difference. All local Scot reports, have them implementing something of a 180 degree game plan as well which can't be worse strategically than against Germany in an impossible tourney opener against the hosts. Scots should be much more settled in today.

Not to pour it on, but I do find some of these quasi-double downs a bit curious for your bankroll management.

For example, you already have 2 units on Ukraine to win the group and Romania to finish last. Then placed another 2 units on Ukraine to beat Romania.

Similar to Croatia to cover today, when you already have a Croatia future and Albania not to get a point.

There was an announced FIFA referee initiative to essentially swallow the whistle in the penalty box for this tourney. That the foul has to be called initially and blatant. Just fyi.

Georgia +5 vs Seton Hall (-105)

6 Units

I think we're getting some value due to overall records here. Seton Hall is much less battle-tested having played all games to this point in their adjustment-demanding small campus gym where they needed OT to get past St. Joe's. St. Joe's is worse than any of Georgia's opponents to get here, 2 of which they went on the road and beat already. Georgia also has an extra day rest/prep advantage under their belt. Pirates haven't played outside of the comforts of the NJ/NY area in an entire month. @bookie_crushers