BrownianMotion

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replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing Fair enough. And I do agree that it would be regarded as the biggest upset, as seemingly every pundit is giving him no chance. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 28, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing It looks like plenty of sharps strongly disagree with you. Also, you'll excuse me if I don't take some random fat guy online seriously when he accuses someone else of never stepping foot inside of a boxing ring. Let's take a look at the match up: Floyd's Philly shell, that he has used to great success throughout his career, is designed to be used against an orthodox stance. He blocks jabs with his guard and has right hand bombs deflect off his shoulder into the air. When you go southpaw (McGregor is a southpaw) he doesn't have the same ability to deal with jabs in the same manner. McGregor may not use his right hand in the same way some of Mayweather's opponents have - i.e. for powerful jabs. He uses it to gauge distance and set up his powerful left hand. His left hand, nevertheless, should still be tougher to block in the manner that Mayweather is most comfortable with - the philly shell. McGregor has pretty much all the physical attributes on his side, like height, weight, reach, strength, power, etc., but he also brings a far more unorthodox and unpredictable style and toolbox. He can fight from a variety of different stances that Mayweather has never experienced inside the ring - all of which designed for specific situations. The gameplan that could be most successful for McGregor would be the following: Many people talk about Conor's power, and that his only chance of winning this would be to rush in aggressively with a clean shot with the left. I think that would be the wrong approach vs a defensive genius like Mayweather. McGregor should utilize a lot of what makes him a successful MMA striker in this fight. He needs to be fighting from an MMA distance, which is several inches longer than the normal boxing distance. This will allow him to stay out of Mayweather's reach, will still allowing him to attack from the outside, given his reach advantage. Whenever Mayweather tries to close the distance, he should immediately clinch. He can try some dirty boxing while in the clinch, but that shouldn't be his primary goal. His goal should be to disengage and push Mayweather away as quickly as possible, in order to maintain that MMA distance. McGregor will have the advantage in the clinch, due to his size and grappling knowledge - he's had far more experience battling for underhooks in the clinch, and has a deep knowledge of greco roman wrestling stances. His attacks from the outside should come from a variety of different stances (mostly traditional boxing, but constantly switch from that to thai boxingstance , karate stance, capoeira, greco roman wrestling, etc) that Mayweather has never seen before. Give Mayweather as many different looks as possible to throw off his timing and to make him uncomfortable. I'm confident that this approach, or something very similar, is what will be utilized by McGregor on fight night. Paulie Malignaggi, who has sparred with him, alluded to the fact that Conor is not simply relying on his left hand, and that he knows what he's doing in there and that he has a good gameplan. Also pointed out the fact that he's very unorthodox, but that there's a method to his madness. I think the above plan of attack could be successful if executed perfectly. We'll revisit this thread after August 26. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 28, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing Some interesting stuff about the betting breakdown so far. Casuals are mostly on McGregor, as expected. But it looks like there are sharps on both sides, with several coming in on McGregor in recent days. >>>>> a spokesman for Bookmaker.eu “The public is certainly siding with McGregor because they like the value, but we have wiseguys on both sides of this fight,” he said. “There are highly respected players that believe McGregor has a good chance to upset Mayweather. Whether that trend continues over the next month remains to be seen.” <<<<<< https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/sports/conor-mcgregor-floyd-mayweather-jr-fight-odds.html > Darren Rovell ? @darrenrovell A bettor in Nevada placed $150,000 today on Conor McGregor to beat Floyd at a @WilliamHillUS sports book. If Conor wins, he'll net $662,500. https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/889629914214924290 > Chris Andrews?Verified account @andrewssports Follow More Just took $35,000 on McGregor by KO at 6/1. Mc KO now 5/1, Mc dec 20/1, May KO -160, May dec +200. Fight -600/+450. Go 7.5 yes -120/no even https://twitter.com/andrewssports/status/889598980329324544 > According to ESPN’s David Purdum, who covers gambling for the sports network, for every one Mayweather bet, there’s 19 on McGregor. William Hill also reports that it recently took three separate $50,000 wagers from the same person on McGregor winning. That would net the gambler $662,500 should the slips be victorious. https://www.casino.org/news/big-bets-on-conor-mcgregor-tighten-odds-against-floyd-mayweather View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 27, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing Quote Originally Posted by SamLangford: Making a case for McGregor is asinine..... LOL Stop it. Just stop.........You are embarrassing yourself.... Play a lotto ticket instead. odds are a lot better than +400 You've posted the exact same illiterate drivel in literally every single post you've made. You're the only one here embarrassing yourself. You're a newbie. It's abundantly clear every time you post (while assaulting the English language) about "free money." View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 27, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing By the way, several 5 and 6 figure bets have come in on McGregor in recent days (coincidentally, after his sparring session with Paulie Malignaggi, where he reportedly looked very good.) View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 27, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing You're clearly new to this whole betting thing. There's no such thing as free money or guaranteed outcomes. That's something only a casual would say. Someone who knows what they're doing will breakdown both sides in order to assess the risk/reward. Everyone gets things wrong from time to time, but this is how people are successful over the long term. Making the case for Floyd should be easy. But there's also a case to be made for Conor. Completely ignoring the possibility of the upset is asinine, since that's where the real money will be, should it occur. I'm still working on my full breakdown, but I'll post an indepth one just as I did for SB LI. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 27, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing So you don't really know anything about boxing, or these particular competitors, other than stuff you've been told by Max Kellerman. I figured that was the case, but it's nice to have some confirmation. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 26, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing Floyd wouldn't have a 0% chance inside the octagon either. He would, however, have a much much much smaller chance of winning inside the octagon than Conor would inside a boxing ring, simply because there's so much more Floyd doesn't know about MMA than there is that Conor doesn't know about boxing. Conor at least has an amateur boxing background and trains boxing in every single one of his fight camps, while Floyd has absolutely no experience of any kind in kickboxing, jiu jitsu, muay thai, wrestling, etc. There's literally a probability greater than zero (albeit infinitesimal) of the sun not rising tomorrow, yet somehow we are to believe that McGregor has a 0% chance in a combat sport, where we've seen far crazier things happen throughout its history? Again, you're being silly. Let's perform an experiment, to see just how well you know the sport, as well as the two fighters and their styles, strengths, and weaknesses. Say you were McGregor's coach for this fight, and you were tasked with coming up with a gameplan for August 26. Let's say you would be given a $1 million bonus if the strategy worked and McGregor won the fight. What would your gameplan be? Do you see any path to victory at all? Or would you simply just throw in the towel before the fight even began? I'll post my gameplan, too. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 24, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing Quote Originally Posted by SamLangford: You don't know ish about boxing..... Really though you are clueless. and your comparisons are stupid. McGregor has Zero chance. Floyd by stoppage is free money. The End. They aren't comparisons, they are examples of precedence, where absurd individuals like yourself also claimed that there was zero chance, due to the deficit in skill and experience. The first one may not have been publicized nearly as much, since this fight has the potential to be larger than the Super Bowl (which, by the way, I broke down flawlessly this past season, and not only did I predict the outcome, but literally all of my predictions regarding the different match ups turned out to be true, as you can see from my posts) but Eddie Bravo was a much bigger underdog. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 24, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Mayweather vs McGregor: history of combat sports in Boxing The amount of people giving McGregor 0% chance and thinking that Floyd finishing McGregor is "free money" is silly. Fair enough if you believe he will win, as this is taking place in his sport and he's rightfully the favorite, but if you're looking at this from the perspective that there's 0% risk, you're highly mistaken and you're obviously an amateur. We have several examples in combat sports, where the much less experienced/skilled competitor has excelled. I'll take a look at a couple of them. 1) Eddie Bravo vs Royler Gracie. This was a submission grappling showdown, featuring a 7th degree black belt and a legend in the world of jiu jitsu vs a brown belt who was at a 20+ year disadvantage in experience. If you think McGregor is an underdog now, and that people are ridiculing his odds of winning, Eddie Bravo was arguably an even bigger underdog. Yet, he ended up submitting Gracie. During the contest, Eddie confused Gracie by utilizing a technique that had never before been seen - the rubber guard. A guy with 35 years of experience, who had reached the very top of his sport, was thrown for a loop by a much less experienced and skilled opponent, simply due to this unorthodox and unpredictable style. 2) Brock Lesnar. Lesnar wrestled in college, but then went into fake wrestling. Had a minor stint in training camp for the Minnesota Vikings. He decided to try his hand at MMA. From the moment he stepped foot inside the octagon, he dominated much more skilled and experienced fighters. Even in his debut loss vs Frank Mir, he dominated the fight. The ref incorrectly stood the two competitors up while Brock had Mir in half guard and pummelling him on what looked to be a quick TKO victory, before Steve Mazzagatti (who has been blacklisted due to many other massive errors, including being responsible for Jon Jones' lone loss, by disqualifying him) stood them up due to a strike to the back of the head. The correct procedure would have been a warning. Anyways, Lesnar went on to win 4 fights, including winning the world title against a much more skilled and experienced Randy Couture, in only his 3rd fight in the UFC. Unorthodox and unpredictable styles have proven to be equalizers for inexperienced fighters on occasion. McGregor's timing, accuracy, and power are not questioned by anyone. His lack of boxing experience, and therefore his footwork and other boxing attributes are not as developed as that of other top tier boxers, but it'd not beyond the realm of possibility that his unorthodox & unpredictable style can open up some opportunities. Mayweather's famous shoulder roll is rendered useless, for the most part, against southpaws, and southpaws have connected with their left hands against him (Conor's power in his left is deadly.) Furthermore, how will a 40 year old Floyd react to Conor constantly switching stances (from a traditional boxing stance to a thai boxing stance, to a capoeira, to a greco roman wrestling stance, etc) that he's never seen before. The angles from which Conor will be hitting him from those stances are something he isn't used to. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	21	July 24, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Lots of poor reasoning regarding Super Bowl picks in NFL Betting >>> It was a coin toss- It's just a random game between to equal all star teams.. If they play it 100 times and each teams wins about 50 of them.... False. ATL loses 8 times out of 10 because they aren't a smart or fundamentally sound team. The first half was an anomaly. They were able to catch NE off guard with a different defensive plan. However, after adjustments were made, ATL was dominated in every phase of the game with ease. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	24	February 06, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Lots of poor reasoning regarding Super Bowl picks in NFL Betting Told everyone that NE defense would do well vs that Falcons offense. They only gave up 21 points on defense, with only 7 in the 2nd half. Completely shut them out in the 4th. Also, I outlined the fact that situational play was the biggest mismatch between the two teams, and that's exactly what ended up costing ATL. 1 for 8 on 3rd downs, and poor play calling and execution on that 3rd and 33 drive with under 4 minutes left. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	24	February 06, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Take the names out of it and just look at the numbers in NFL Betting Atlanta is fraudulent. Inconsistent on 3rd down and in the red zone on offense, and downright awful in the red zone on defense. It won't take much to beat them, other than fundamentally and situationally sound football. That's what Belichick coached teams excel at. NE wins comfortably. View Post \| View Thread	jaykirk19	3	February 05, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to C Alex Mack injury could have significant effect on the outcome of SBLI in NFL Betting Huge news: Adam Schefter ?@AdamSchefter Pro Bowl C Alex Mack will play Super Bowl LI with fracture in left leg, sources tell ESPN. Falcons uncertain how well, or long, he'll play. https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/828190845186797568 One source said that if this were the regular season, Mack could miss six to eight weeks, but he will be out there Sunday, with concern running high among Atlanta officials. The Falcons are confident Mack will hold up in pass-blocking, but they are uncertain if he will be effective on downfield blocks, or if his leg will hold up. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18623474/atlanta-falcons-center-alex-mack-play-super-bowl-li-fracture-left-fibula View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	50	February 05, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 1.1 Million dollar bet placed on the Falcons ... in NFL Betting This poor person may as well have flushed that 1 mil down the toilet. View Post \| View Thread	Clownin101	17	February 05, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Pats Cover -3 Extra Large in NFL Betting If you think ATL wins, you probably need a lobotomy. NE wins big. View Post \| View Thread	Jimkellybeer	7	February 04, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Biggest factor no one is talking about.... in NFL Betting Ye, the rules were different back then, but the refs usually let the players play in the SB - even nowadays. The Pats will get very physical with those receivers. View Post \| View Thread	mrquija27	29	February 04, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to C Alex Mack injury could have significant effect on the outcome of SBLI in NFL Betting >>> Falcons C Alex Mack (fibula) wasn't listed on the final injury report for Super Bowl LI against the Patriots That's false. ------------------------------------------ Their final injury report of the season has been released, and only three players were even listed as limited. Freeney was back today after missing yesterday’s practice with a calf injury, and wide receiver Julio Jones (foot) and center Alex Mack (fibula) continue to be listed as limited as they’ve been all week. ---------------------------------------------------- https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/03/three-limited-on-falcons-final-injury-report/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	50	February 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to i have to admit,,,this chris hogan dude scares me a bit in NFL Betting Lewis and White should have good games. ATL has been weak against RBs catching passes out of the backfield. View Post \| View Thread	poopy	5	February 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Atlanta wins by appx 10, AND, tops the O/U by appx 10!!! in NFL Betting Absolutely no chance with a vulnerable interior offensive line. Atlanta will have a tough time getting the run game going and NE will be able to bring pressure right in his face on passing downs. View Post \| View Thread	lajohn	15	February 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread

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