BShively

Kentucky @ Arkansas----Home team is 8-2 SU the last ten meetings. Kentucky is struggling while the Razorbacks are on the rise, covering their last four SEC games. It's hard to see Kentucky losing two straight though, so we will pass. Lean on the OVER as Arkansas games are averaging 164 points at home and Kentucky games are averaging 150 points. Both teams should get in the 80's here. *OVER*

Marshall @ Charlotte---Marshall is 9-1-1 ATS their last eleven games as they are running an up-tempo system that is working quite well. Charlotte has covered their last eight games though but are still struggling to find a way to win. The OVER is 5-0 in Marshall's last five games. Even with the totals set at 170 and 171.5, they are still soaring OVER. Charlotte doesn't play any defense either, and this is one of those 91-86 finals. (OVER)

Memphis @ Cincinnati---The last four meetings have been decided by double digits taking me off Memphis immediately. Cincinnati had gone UNDER in four straight games before going into 2 OT on Saturday to send that game over barely. With Memphis allowing only 36% shooting from the floor and the Bearcats allowing 38%, the only way to play this game is UNDER.

Wisconsin @ Penn State---The Badgers finally got a quality win without Bo Ryan on the sideline. It was a HUGE win for the team beating Michigan State by one point in an exciting game on Sunday. That sets the stage for this game on Thursday as Penn State has owned the 'ATS' department in this series going 11-0 ATS the last 11 meetings. While the Nittany Lions have been covering in this series, their last SU win against the Badgers was in 2011. The line is lower for this game than what we would expect because Wisconsin stinks that bad. Penn State still lacks the offense to play a full 40 minutes as they tend to go on scoring droughts. While Wisconsin is in let-down mode, it's possible they sneak out a win as this line is about 10 points lower than it was last year in this game. I really can't see Penn State scoring over 65 points and can easily see a final score in the 68-65 range. *UNDER 133 or less*

USC @ Oregon---USC showed no let-down last week beating UCLA 89-75 after their 4 OT win against Arizona. They haven't played since last Thursday and that can be a good or bad thing. I feel it is more of a bad thing as a full week can kill their momentum. The Trojans are headed to Eugene to play a good Oregon team and they have struggled playing on the road in this series. What I look at in this game is the fact that Oregon does play defense and they can control the tempo/pace of play. Oregon is 10-0 SU the last 10 meetings in this series. Point guard Casey Benson is leading the nation in assist: turnover ratio while Chris Boucher is 2nd in the nation in blocks. I like the Ducks to roll here. *Oregon*

Play on Game #773 Gonzaga (Thursday, 11:00 PM EST)

After going perfect against the spread this season, Saint Mary's is 0-2 ATS their last two games as they can't keep up the expectations and the odds makers have now started showing them too much respect. Saint Mary's hit their peak too soon. Gonzaga his a team that started off slow but still hasn't peaked yet. They are playing much, much better ball now than in the beginning of the season.

History: Gonzaga has won the last eight meetings with seven of those being by double digits. The last time Saint Mary beat Gonzaga was in 2012 in the Conference Tourney in OT, 78-74.

Gonzaga has four losses this season. They have been by 1,1, 5, and 5 points. So all four losses have been very close with two of them being within what the point spread is tonight.  I still feel strongly that the Zags are the best team in the conference and all the pressure in on Saint Mary's here. It's an advantage for Gonzaga to be the underdog here. No pressure. All they have to do is play their game and they win this game, easily.

The last two times Gonzaga was an underdog in this series (2014 and 2013, they beat Saint Mary's straight up 75-47 and 77-60.  This is a classic case of taking a DOMINATING team as an underdog that has been DOMINATING this series the last eight meetings, including two as an underdog.

I'm going to lay the -1.5 runs with the Nationals who are one the hottest teams in the Majors right now and will have their ace on the mound tonight. Scherzer is a PERFECT 10-0 SU his last 10 home starts and has won ALL 10 by 2 or more runs. This is a pitching rematch from earlier in the season when Scherzer and the Nationals won by a score of 7-2. Sullivan for the Phillies is a guy that does not impress me as he has yet to throw over 91 pitches in a game. He does not strike out very many hitters and is one road starts this season was the one I mentioned above vs. the Nationals when he took the loss, 7-2. The Phillies are 6-33 in their L39 games as an underdog of +201 or greater. Looking at their last 7 losses as un underdog of +201 or greater, they have ALL come by more than 2 runs with an average score of 7-3. I think we see another final score in the 7-2 range tonight. The Nationals have also had the benefit of getting a days rest while the Phillies are traveling to the East coast after playing a 4 game road set out West vs. the Rockies. 

I want to lay the -1.5 with Oakland this afternoon as theywill have their ace on the rubber who is 4-0 on the season with a 1.65 ERA,1.00 WHIP and a 25K/ 6 BB mark. His 4 wins this season have all come by morethan 2 runs with an average score of 7-1. In 2 day starts, Gray hasonly given up 2 ER in 14 IP and opposing hitters are hitting only .160 vs. himin day games. The A's won 17 of his team start's last season and 14 of thosewins came by 2 or more runs. So since last season, 86% of Gray's wins in teamstarts have come by more than 2 runs.

The Red Sox will have Miley on the rubber who has a 6.91 ERAon the season. He only has 10K's on the season to go with 11 BB's. All 4of his losses this season have come by 2 or more runs with an average score of9-3.

The Red Sox are only hitting .188 from the plate over thelast 7 days. They have no speed on the bases either (only 1 SB in the last 7days), and their pinch hitters are 1-for17 in this time frame.

I think with last night's win that Oakland is primed for arun and today is a good way to start it with a dependable guy like Gray. Oaklandis 15-5 SU in their last 20 home games vs. the AL East, with 10 (66%) of thosewins coming by 2 or more runs.  TheRed Sox are 11-9 in their last 20 road games vs. the AL West. Of those 9losses, 5 of them (55%) have come by 2 or more runs.

I like our percentages in this game to cover the -1.5.Oakland is hitting .274 at home on the season (#5 in the AL). The Red Sox onlyhave a .347 SLG% on the road, and rank near the bottom of the AL in OPS. Ithink we see Oakland put up enough runs for Gray to cruise in this one. Lookfor a final score in the 6-2 range. 

I like the value with the Giants in this game. There is a lotof money being placed on the Houston Astros tonight and I think they areovervalued. The reason for this is because they have Colin McHugh on the rubberand the Astros have won all 6 of his starts this season. There is a lot ofpressure on this kid to keep performing at such a high level and I don't thinkthat the Astros bats have enough to get him the win tonight.

Houston is only hitting .167 over their last 7 games,scoring only 3 runs a game. I will also note that the Astros got swept by theRangers last week when they were a favorite in all 3 games, and the Astros areonly 8-8 SU at home on the season.

I will also note that the Giants have won the last 6meetings vs. the Astros so we have a team that traditionally has beaten theAstros. Maybe the Astros are a little better this year and the Giants are notas good, but currently I think the Giants offense is hitting as good as theyhave all year long and they have a good chance to score enough runs to gettheir team the win tonight. The Giants are hitting .283 from the plate over thelast 6 games and I think they have the hotter lineup going into tonight's game.

The Giant's bullpen is solid as well with a 81.8% conversionrate on saves this season. The Giant's are 3-0 in interleague games this seasonand are 7-3 overall for the month of May, telling me that they are poised for awinning month.

Heston will take the rubber for the Giants and he has arespectable 1.39 WHIP on the season with a 20K/ 6 BB mark. He is coming off arough start vs. the Padres, but in Heston's other rough start this year (vs.the Rockies), he bounced back with a quality start vs. the Angels and I thinkhe bounces back tonight.

This line opened up Houston -135 and has went up to Houston-155 and I'm seeing SIA with Houston -170. Clearly there is too much money onHouston tonight and San Fran is the play tonight. Take the Giants on the MoneyLine as I think we see a final score in 5-3 range. 

I like Memphis with the +4.5 tonight. I think Golden Stateis in a lot of trouble in this series. Curry is struggling, Draymond Green isstruggling, and the Warriors have not had to face this adversity yet in theseason. Speight's is also out for the Warriors and I think this is also afactor. Speight's is a physical player and I think David Lee cannot replace histoughness. I will also note that Speight's played for the Grizzlies beforegoing to Golden State, and I think that's important to note as he was holdinghis own on the defensive side vs. Randolph and Gasol.

The Grizzlies are now 5-0 with Conley in the lineup. Allenis playing with a high intensity on defense. Z-Bo and Gasol are doing what theyalways do. The Grizzlies have held the Warriors to 101, 89, and 90 points in theseries. The Grizzlies bench has been more productive as well.

We are getting a solid defensive team at home with +4.5points that has proven they can control the tempo vs. the Warriors. They willhave the home crowd behind him. The Warriors are in a tough spot tonight. Ifthey do win, I can't see them winning by more than a basket. I think this is atight game throughout and we will cash the spread with ease. Let's take thehomedog this Monday night and get the $$!

I want to lay the -1.5 tonight with Cole on the rubber.While the Pirates are 0-2 this season vs. the Reds when Cole is on the mound,they are 4-0 vs. everybody else in Coles starts. Cole has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.12WHIP on the season. He almost has a 2:1 groundball:flyball ratio on the seasonas well. He has not allowed a homerun in these 4 starts I'm talking about andhe should have an easy time vs. the Phillies who have only hit 3 homeruns inthe last 7 days.

Williams takes the mound for the Phillies and this guy is adisaster. He has a 1.61 WHIP on the season, a 5.18 ERA, and other than his 1ststart of the season vs. the Nationals, he has gotten touched up in his last 5starts. He has almost a 2:1 flyball/groundball ratio and only has 15 K's in23.2 IP. He is 1-4 career vs. the Pirates and 3 of the 4 losses have come by 3or more runs. McCutcheon is 3-for-6 career vs. Williams with a pair ofhomeruns.

So from a pitching perspective, we have the much betterpitcher in this game, no question about it. Cole is a Top 10 pitcher in the NL.He is solid vs. both righties and lefties and ranks among the NL Top 10 in K'sper 9 innings pitched.

Pittsburgh has taken 14 of the last 21 vs. the Phillies andare 6-1 in their last vs. the Phillies when playing @ Philly. Looking at theirlast 7 wins vs. the Phillies overall, 6 of those 7 wins have come by 2 or moreruns.

After taking the last 2 games vs. the Cardinals over theweekend, I think the Pirates are poised to go on a run. I like them heretonight to win comfortably. Lay the -1.5 w/ Cole on the rubber. 

The Clippers have looked like the best team now with a 2-1series lead. They couldn't miss from the floor the other night. Redick had 31points on 11-for-14 from the floor and Rivers had 25 points on 10-for-13 fromthe floor. I can almost guarantee you that they don't put up those numbers inthis game. At halftime, it was a 7 point game before the Clippers put up 35 inthe 3rd quarter.

The Clippers shot 55.4% from the floor and 82.6% from theline. It will be hard for them to duplicate this performance and with theRockets back against the wall, I have to expect for them to leave it all on thecourt tonight. The Rockets are fortunate to be only down 2-1. They werefortunate to win Game 2 in a foul filled game.

So why are we taking Houston in this Game 4? Well, forstarters I think they know if they win this game, then the series is tied 2-2and they will be going back to home for Game 5 and can take a 3-2 lead. I thinkthey can use this psychology and hopefully as momentum. I think it's also safeto say that the Rockets have not played their best game yet, and I think theClippers are coming off their best game, so there is a good probability that wesee a reversal here.

From a value standpoint, there is plenty here getting 7.5points with a team that has won 61 games on the season. They have only been anunderdog of more than 6.5 points only 3 times all season long. The Rockets are13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Iwill also note that even after Friday night's cover, the Clippers are stillonly 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

I think we see the Rockets play their best game of theseries. Let's take all the points we can get here.   

The Clippers have looked like the best team now with a 2-1series lead. They couldn't miss from the floor the other night. Redick had 31points on 11-for-14 from the floor and Rivers had 25 points on 10-for-13 fromthe floor. I can almost guarantee you that they don't put up those numbers inthis game. At halftime, it was a 7 point game before the Clippers put up 35 inthe 3rd quarter.

The Clippers shot 55.4% from the floor and 82.6% from theline. It will be hard for them to duplicate this performance and with theRockets back against the wall, I have to expect for them to leave it all on thecourt tonight. The Rockets are fortunate to be only down 2-1. They werefortunate to win Game 2 in a foul filled game.

So why are we taking Houston in this Game 4? Well, forstarters I think they know if they win this game, then the series is tied 2-2and they will be going back to home for Game 5 and can take a 3-2 lead. I thinkthey can use this psychology and hopefully as momentum. I think it's also safeto say that the Rockets have not played their best game yet, and I think theClippers are coming off their best game, so there is a good probability that wesee a reversal here.

From a value standpoint, there is plenty here getting 7.5points with a team that has won 61 games on the season. They have only been anunderdog of more than 6.5 points only 3 times all season long. The Rockets are13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Iwill also note that even after Friday night's cover, the Clippers are stillonly 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

I think we see the Rockets play their best game of theseries. Let's take all the points we can get here.   

Play on Game #917 Baltimore Orioles/ Gonzalez (7:05 PM EST)

I like the Orioles with Gonzalez on the rubber as he bringsa 2.59 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP into tonight's game. The Orioles are 3 -2 in his 5starts this year with one of those wins coming against the Yankees last month.Gonzo had 10K's/ 1 BB in that game. He is coming off a quality start vs. theRays last week when he went 7.2 scoreless innings scattering 4 hits whilestriking out 6 and walking only 1. For the season, Gonzo is holding opponentsto a .143 BA with runners in scoring position. Current members of the Yankeesroster are only hitting .204 vs. Gonzo and he has a 24K/ 6 BB mark vs. them. Inhis last 5 starts vs. the Yankees, Gonzo has a 25K/ 4BB mark and we definitelyhave the better pitcher tonight as an underdog.

For the Yankees, they will have Warren on the rubber who hasstruggles vs. the Orioles. Adam Jones is 3-for-6 vs. him, Davis 2-for-4, Hardy3-for-5, and Machado 3-for-4. Warren has a 12K/ 8 BB mark in 5 starts so thisguy is not a strikeout pitcher. He is more of a contact pitcher and that is nota good thing vs. these Orioles bats. Opposing hitters are hitting .273 vs.Warren with runners in scoring position and guys are really getting a hold ofhim in the middle innings after seeing his stuff the first go around.

The Orioles have been in a bit of a funk lately, but this isa good game for them to bounce out of it vs. a pitcher they have had successagainst. After dropping last night's game, I think they even this 4 game seriesup at 1-1. Let's take the Orioles tonight as a small underdog.

I think this is a good spot to take the Indians with Salazaron the rubber who has a 28K/ 5 BB mark on the season and is 3-0 on the seasonas well. Vs. the current members of the Royals, Salazar has a 21K/ 3 BB markand now the Royals lineup will be a bit thin as Lorenzo Cain is suspended forthis game and he was leading the Royals in batting average, OBP, and stolenbases as well. I will also note that Escobar and Rios are still on the DL forthe Royals as well.

I will also note that the Indians have activated 1B NickSwisher from the DL as this should give them some more offense hopefully.Swisher is 5-for-16 with 2 HR career vs. Vargas. Vargas takes the rubber forthe Royals and he has a pitiful 9K/ 8 BB mark in 19.2 IP so obviously Vargas isnot a strikeout pitcher and the 26 hits he has given up in 19.2 IP is a redflag also. This is the Royals worst pitcher and I think this is a good time togive him a fade. Opponents are hitting .420 vs. Vargas after they see him forthe first time in the game. I look for the Indians to put up 3 or 4 runs in the4th and 5th inning, then pile up a few insurance runs later in the game.

The Royals have cooled off slightly now as they have splittheir last 18 contest. The Indians have now won 3 of 5 and they have won thelast 4 meetings in Kansas City. The Indians are 8-3 in their last 11 followingan off day and are 9-2 in Salazar's last 11 games vs. the AL Central.

Salazar and Vargas squared off against each other once lastyear and Cleveland won the game, 6-1. I look for more of the same tonight. TakeCleveland tonight.

I like Tampa Bay with Smyly on the rubber as the Rays havewon his last 6 starts dating back to last season. Smyly is 2-0 career vs. theSox with a 1.03 WHIP and a 19K/ 3 BB mark against them. Smyly checks into thisgame with a 15K/ 1 BB mark on the season and appears to be getting stronger sohe can go deeper in games.

For the Red Sox, they will have Porcello on the mound who Istill have questions about, even after he finally tossed a quality outing vs.Toronto last week. Porcello is still walking too many batters and is more of afly-ball pitcher. He is 3-3 career vs. the Rays in 7 starts. The Rays offensehas not been firing on all cylinders, but after last night's win, they should beable to use that as momentum as they are 6-1 in their last 7 games afterscoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

I also like the Rays bullpen that has 11 saves on the seasonto only 2 blown saves (85%). The Red Sox on the other hand have only 4 savesand 5 blown saves (44%).

We want to play on ALL underdogs with a money line of +100or higher (Tampa Bay), a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a marginallosing team (46% to 49%), playing on Tuesday. This system play is 66-43 (60.6%)since 1997.

I will also note that Hanley Ramirez is out for the Red Soxtonight after spraining his shoulder last night and Ramirez was batting .283with 10 HR on the season which was leading the team.

Let's take the Rays here as they know how to get the jobdone when Smyly is on the rubber. 

I like Washington tonight with Strasburg on the mound to winthis game by 2 or more runs. After a slow start last outing, Strasburg appearedto find his groove and I think that he is about to get on a roll. I think thatthis price we are paying is a bargain honestly as Strasburg will be facing MatLatos who has a 1.76 WHIP on the season, hasn't throw over 88 pitches in astart, and has a 2:1 flyball/groundball ratio. Career vs. the Nationals, Latoshas a 23K/ 19 BB mark and that is a red flag right there also.

The Marlins swept Washington 2 weeks ago and I know theNationals want to return the favor badly. Strasburg got roughed up in thatstart, but he still has a 9-6 career record vs. the Marlins with a 1.14 WHIPand the Nationals are 5-0 his last 5 home starts vs. the Marlins. In his 2 winsthis season, they have been by 3 and 6 runs.

Washington is hitting .288 over the last 7 games and leadingthe NL with 46 runs scored in that time frame winning 6 of their last 7. Let'slay the chalk tonight with Washington. I think it's important to note that whenStrasburg is a -150 to a -250 home favorite, 10 of his 11 team's wins have comeby 3 or more runs with an average margin of victory of 5.5 runs dating back toApril 2014. This tells me that when they win, they win by 2 or more runs. Sothat's why I want to lay the -1.5 tonight and stay away from the money line. 

I like the Orioles as a homedog in this game. The Rays arethe favorite in this game because of Archer and his 0.83 ERA in the season andthe fact that he hasn't allowed a run in his last 4 starts. It's a lot ofpressure on him tonight and I think that pressure burst pipes. The Rays arestill only 3-2 in his 5 starts. Vs. the Orioles, Archer is 1-3 for his careerwith a 5.58 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Current members of the Orioles have a .479SLG% vs. him. I will also note that the Rays are 1-4 this season when the totalis 7 or less. I will also note that the Orioles are 2-0 this season when thetotal is 7 or less. The Orioles are batting .313 the L7 days and are a teamthat can cool Archer down. They will have Gonzalez on the rubber who has arespectable 3.42 ERA this season and is 4-4 career vs. the Rays. So, he canhold his own. I think this is a great value play. I mean, when are you going toget the Orioles at home getting +125-135? Not often.....The Orioles are 5-0 intheir last 5 games as a home underdog of +110-150 and I look for them to be 6-0after this game tonight.

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I like the Nets getting the points here at home. The Netsare 4-1 ATS in this series and just barely missed the cover in Game 5 or theywould be a perfect 5-0 ATS in the series. They beat Atlanta SU in Game 3 andGame 4 at home. All the pressure is on the Hawks for this game as they try toeliminate the Nets. I think that Brooklyn has done a good job of matching upwith Atlanta and they have been getting better bench production with Jack andAnderson off the bench. Deron Williams only scored 5 points last game and Ihave to think he puts up better numbers on Friday night. Also, Joe Johnsonhates the Hawks and you can be assured he will be bringing everything he has tothe game as well. I think that Atlanta drew a tough matchup in this series andthe Nets have done everything they need to do to compete vs. the Hawks. Theyare playing at home tonight and will leave it all on the court. The Hawks arefeeling the pressure, but they know if they win this game then they can go backhome for Game 7. This is a MUST WIN for Brooklyn if they want to stay alive. Weare getting 4 points and the Nets are now 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 homegames. The Hawks are now 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. I think thelinesmakers are showing them too much respect with the 4 points tonight. Let'stake Brooklyn at home as they bring their 'A' game and I would not be surprisedto see them pull the SU win and force a Game 7. 

I think this is agood time to back the Nationals with Zimmerman on the rubber as they open up a3 game set with the Marlins. The Washington Nationals are 8-2 SU the last 10meetings vs. the Marlins and have won 5 straight meetings in Miami. This is agame where the Nationals are usually a -140 or higher favorite, but the oddsmakers have adjusted this year because the Marlins are expected to be better.

The Nats will callon Zimmerman who is 7-3 career vs. the Marlins with a 1.05 WHIP. He is comingoff back-to-back subpar starts and I think he bounces back in this game. TheMarlins are the lowest scoring team when playing at home in the Majors at only3 runs a game. While the Nationals bats have not gotten heated up yet, theyhave a good chance to vs. Mat Latos.

Latos got tradedin the off-season and the Reds knew what they were doing. After a rough Springwhen opponents were hitting .300 vs. him, things have not gotten any better hashe is 0-3 with a 10.24 ERA. The 3 starts have been vs. the Braves (2x) and theMets so it's not like he is facing so offensive juggernauts. He is giving up2.5 more times fly balls than groundballs and right handed hitters are killinghim going 10-for-20 (.500). The Nationals have a lineup full of right handedhitters except for Bryce Harper basically and I can see them getting a hold ofLatos in this game.

The truth of thematter about this game is that the Marlins starting pitcher (Latos) sucks andso does their bullpen who has a 6.66 ERA at home. Head to Head, Zimmerman is1-0 vs. Latos. Latos has lost his last 4 teams starts vs. the Marlins.Zimmerman has won 5 of his last 6 team starts when pitching @ Miami. I can goon for days with more stats. The bottom line is this is a huge mismatch and acheap price. Lay it and Play it with the Washington Nationals this FridayNight.

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