BuckeyeKaptn

I haven't been on here, I noticed, since 2018.  I used to make spreadsheets to try and beat the bookie!  Real life stopped me but now that Ohio has legalized betting, I'm looking to get back into it.  Question is, anyone have an idea where I can pull past results easily from the web?  Looks like Covers changed their format and I won't be able to do it from here.

Damn, gotta change my avatar.  Baker has already been cut from his second team!!

I was looking to just have a rough estimate towards what the take home total could be using the RL system, I'm trying to keep my spreadsheet lean...it's become bloated  in the past.  

ssquerd is right in that I over stated the difference at +350.  Based on 24 parlays this year where I have the ML, I looked up and used another web sites RL odds.  The average difference between the ML and RL parlays is 157 (ex: ML parlay +200, RL would be +357).

Here's the thing, on one day I had a team at ML -220 with a RL at -109.  The next day, I had a different team at -220, but the run line was at -119.  This is just one example why I was using an average difference between ML and RL parlays.  I had one parlay that was +85 more than the ML (+100 to +185), while the next day a parlay was +210 higher (+121 to +331).

I will adjust my backtests for MLB RL parlays to just +150 more than the ML parlays on the sheets and then send them out.  Again, it's just a estimate, I doubt many people would get the posted final lines anyway.

For those who wonder why I had to do this.....Covers does not have the Run Line odds in their past results, which is where I pull the info for the spreadsheet:

What I did, and I think I did it for NHL not MLB, was plug in 10 different games and the respective PL numbers and took the difference between the straight parlay and RL parlay and averaged them. +350 was roughly the average and I think I brought this number down from +400.  I was using 2 different web sites for these numbers (ML/PL) and I'm sure that didn't help.  Plus, I think the RL would be higher in NHL anyway as the percentage of PL wins in NHL is lower.

Before this, I tried to see if there was a correlation between ML and PL/RL (ex: -200 ML would equate to +110 on the RL)....there wasn't. A strong team like TB would have a lower RL as opposed to Cleveland which can't score for beans thus having a higher run line.

Your point is spot on and what I'll do is take the parlays I have already on my spreadsheet and figure an average from them and adjust it.  I will update the spreadsheet links and post the new one I made for just Excel 2016 users (very fast) that I use.

I forgot to post...

I was able to find a formula to figure out the parlay odds using the two teams' money lines.  I was unable to find one for run line odds (or an archive of past RL odds).  So what I did was search and try and figure differences from parlay ML odds and the parlay RL odds.  I came up with a difference of roughly 350 (average) difference between the two.

Example from last night's winner:

Min -246, Lad -206 = +109 odds (based on my formula).  

To figure out the RL odds I just added 350 to the above making the Min/Lad -1.5 Parlay +459.  Sometimes it's better, sometimes it's worse.  I needed a round number as, like I said before, I couldn't figure out a formula for RL odds.  If someone has an idea I would look into it.

SSQUERD, in one word "Yes"! (don't forget that these are parlays)

If you look at row 9 for Top 2 and row 32 for Top 2 ML, it will give you the year end totals for Away/Home/Total for each year.  I added all years...dang, I just realized that when I added 2018 to the equations, I forgot to divide by the additional year.

The actual numbers, against the ones you posted are 222.74 and 414.19.

If you download the spreadsheet on post #33, on the first sheet you can manipulate on home, away and get totals for all 6 years.

Top 2 is the top 2 RSRA (Runs Scored/Runs Against) numbers based on a formula found on 2 websites for NHL:

https://www.sportsbookinsiders. com/betting-systems/702-575-nhl-betting-system-goal-averages

https://www.thegreek. com/sports-betting/hockey/nhl-betting-how-to-predict-hockey-games-using-a-mathematical-based-system

I just did it for MLB as they are similar for wagering.

Top 2 ML is just the top 2 favorites of the day parlayed together.  Final numbers based on Covers' final lines.

The progression for both parlays are 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, 25x.

Again, sorry for the delay.  I haven't been using it but I just did it now and it's working fine.  It might have been an error on Covers part at that time.  It happens.

Sorry, been busy on another workbook.  Let me check

So far, before I update....if I save and restart the file, it will fully update.  If I just hit save and then try to update without exiting, the file will freeze. This is a new problem and I don't know why.  I always used to update every morning, saving occasionally and never exit.

I'm also thinking about doing the query connection for every team instead of the web scraping as I have now.  That would only work for the newer excel versions as ours.

I am having the same problem, I have the same version as you.  I have been wondering if my wifi has been given out or something.  When I get home from work and do it (like 10 minutes ago), there's no problem.  I'm off tomorrow and I was going to wait until a little bit later to update, see if that matters.  I'm also going to save and exit each time to see if that helps too.  I usually just keep the file open and not exit...updating everyday, saving every now and then.

Thanx, no I hadn't really paid attention to the correct link...here it is:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PyV2dUzr9C4hf4ovSuFDoEg7F3nMMUZs/view?usp=sharing

I updated through today's (Saturday's) games.  Just an FYI to everyone, once the teams that haven't played on the road or home do so, the RSRA will be invalid (#NA or #VALUE) and will not post to MLB Systems.  I should have waited to post the update until then and I will repost after anyways for the novice excel people.

I checked the above link and it's the correct one.

Thanx Grecycle

Another new update AGAIN as the plays didn't properly post over on MLB Systems.  Happens at the beginning of every year.

New update. NHL fixed. MLB works.

Currently, Covers for MLB Teams has not changed the web format, continuing to be the old format.  Hopefully, if it changes like the NHL, I will have time to jump on it and get an update out.

Yes, if you go to each team's past results and look and copy that url into column E for that team...that'll work until I fix it so all you have to change is the year like previously.  Don't worry about the formula you will be replacing. This is all in the hidden URL tab for anyone else that wishes to do this.

Covers has redesigned the look of the team page too.

Yep.  I haven't had the time, so I'm trying to do it before opening day for MLB and then October for NHL.

Covers changed the URLS for all teams but currently Blue Jackets won't post.  I have been waiting for MLB and now I have to go change the urls. Dagnabbit

Nope, I have to update The NHL to the back test sheet.  My bad.

I'm glad it's helped.  Yeah, Spring Training is around the corner.  I just have to add (I believe) MLB to the backtest spreadsheet.  Everything else is pretty much done.  Just need to check the daily update at the beginning of the season.

Dan's unit is $10.00