cashg3

Through wk 5, I noticed that a lot of short dogs in the 3.5 or less range are covering. ***I found this interesting because of the upside of teasing short dogs in highly competitive games***.  So I compiled some data for most of these (I probably missed a few) and the results are pretty appealing. I'm not reinventing the wheel here, but just reminding those of you out there that if you play these 3.5 or less dogs on 6 point teasers, you can do really well. Obviously these might do better on teasers that give more points, but it really is not necessary in this case most of the time.  The theory behind this makes sense - - Vegas expects these games to be close. I tracked games that landed in the 3.5 range only based on Pinnacle's lines. I chose Pinnacle b/c it is the sharpest book and therefore the best indicator of the 3.5 or less range that represents what should be a "close" game and therefore easily help teams cover in a teaser. I am ONLY considering the dog, as there is far less RELATIVE value in teasing a short favorite. Not going to explain this as it should be self explanatory.

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS.

I found that line movement was insignificant. Again, we are only considering dogs that *LAND* within the 3.5-0.5 dog range, NOT what they open at. Therefore, you should probably wait until gameday to consider using this as a tool.

I have grouped these according to how they fared against the teaser. Sorry I was too lazy to post the final scores of these games but you can check that for yourself if you find this interesting. I am only considering

Wk1 teams that covered 6 point teaser: ucla 1.5, MISS 2, LSU 3 (all 3 also covered original spread)

Wk 1 teams that did not cover 6 point teaser: GA 3 (did not cover original spread either)

Wk 1 teaser results: 3-1, ats results: 3-1

Wk 2 teams that covered 6 point teaser: fla intl 3, rice 2, wf 1.5, tcu 1 (these 4 also covered original spread), ga 2.5, uconn 1.5 (these 2 covered teaser but did not cover original spread)

Wk 2 teams that did not cover 6 point teaser: none

Wk 2 teaser results: 6-0, ats results: 4-2

Wk 3 teaser covers: VAN 2.5 (also covered spread), umd 1, pitt 1, az st 2.5 (these 3 covered teaser but did not cover spread)

Wk 3 teaser noncovers: oh st 2

Wk 3 teaser results: 4-1, ats results: 1-4

Wk 4 teaser covers: WASH 2, SO MISS 3, (these 2 covered spread), toledo 2, ucf 1.5, fla st 2.5 (these 3 covered teaser but did not cover spread)

Wk 4 noncovers: usc 2.5

Wk 4 teaser results: 5-1, ats results: 2-4

Wk 5 teaser covers: PIT 2.5, ARK 2.5, AF 3, wmich 3, wash st 3, K ST 3.5, rutgers 1.5, mich st 3.5, sj st 3.5, duke 3.5 (all 10 covered ats as well)

Wk 5 noncovers: unm 1

Wk 5 teaser results: 10-1, ats results: 10-1

HOME DOGS teased: 9-1, road dogs 19-3

Found this at the Greek. Lee vs McCann total bases prop. Not sure how other books grade it but bases are only counted when a hit is made (walks,steals, bases made from advancing on someone else's hit, etc. dont count).

McCann vs Rodriguez: 0-8

McCann last 24 AB: 4-24, including a current 0-22 streak

After seeing these numbers I could care less what Lee does against Lowe because most of us who follow MLB religiously know how hot Lee is right now. But here are the numbers anyways.

Lee vs Lowe: 16-38 (4 2B, 2 HR)

Lee last 25 AB: 9-25 (2 2B, 1 HR)

Take Lee -110.

ytd: 2-3, -4u

today's play

YES: run in 1st inning cubs/reds: 3u

Volquez has allowed a run in the 1st inning of each game this year. This streak has continued from last year which is a stretch of about 8 games.

2-2 ytd -2u

0-1, -1.05u yesterday

today: dbacks +130 2u

GL

ytd: 1-1, -.95u

Took yesterday off. On to today. No time for writeups and pretty fonts lol. May have more later.

Brewers +100/1u

GL

Time to get back on track.

Jays 1u + 105

GL

Posting here to help give you guys another solid capper to follow.  I don't post much because of all the babies and weirdos here on covers. Let the fun begin. 

All I can tell you is that out of 4 seasons betting baseball, even in my noob years, I've had 3 great seasons and 1 mediocre season (last season). Good luck all.

I rank my plays from 1u - 3u. I recommend a 20u bankroll at the least to play with.

2u: NATS +126

people who can't get money onto online poker sites. it's not easy for everyone. transactions such as this are commonplace and i'm just looking for a way to get rid of my tilt account.

thanks for your comment