Castellani14

Quote Originally Posted by Special25:

Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

Quote Originally Posted by Castellani14:



Denver had the number 1 ranked D all year long. And it played without Ware for a good amount. Now that Denver is at full strength, it is easily the best D in the league. Better pas rush than Seattle, better man coverage corners than Seattle. And the Arizona defense isnt even in the discussion. Its posts like yours that make me like Denver even more.

And I am rooting for Carolina

Quote Originally Posted by Special25:

All the hype of Denver stout D Seattle was just as good and Arizona was right there as well.then you hear Denver secondary is much better since when Seattle LOB was clearly the best following Arizona.forget about panther D all you want come Sunday you will regret it.

Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:


Yeah I agree...easy to say now of course, but any 10 team parlay that involves a pro bowl game, and the Superbowl conference winner when you don't even know who will be representing each conference seems ill-advised.

This has been pointed out numerous times on many threads, but you should never place a parlay with the INTENTION of hedging your last bet. You lose juice since you are essentially betting both sides of the last game/s in your parlay by hedging. I will assume the OP didn't intend to hedge this bet (just a 5 dollar fun bet right?), so in that case, I think hedging is appropriate to get some guaranteed money. Guaranteed money doesn't come free, so you will lose some potential money by hedging, so it won't be maximizing profit, but I think you are okay with that. Here's what I would do for a guaranteed ~720 dollars and no stress.

Bet 800 on team Rice +0.5 (if you lose your parlay you are still up 715 dollars). 720 winnings minus 5 dollar initial parlay bet
If team Irvin wins, you are now 'down' 800 but have a hedgeable last game. Since it would be worth 2400 (3200 payout minus the 800 you lost on the first hedge) you place a bet on AFC+2.5 for 1680. If your hedge wins (parlay loses), you win 1512 but have to account for initial hedge of 800 so your total profit is 707 (712 profit minus 5 dollar ticket). If your parlay wins, you have 'lost' both hedge bets totaling 2480 but win a 3200 payout for a 720 dollar profit.

In summary:
If your parlay loses in game 9, you are up 715
If your parlay loses in game 10, you are up 707 (712 winnings minus 5 dollar parlay ticket. I am including the lost initial hedge here)
If parlay wins, you lose two hedge bets totaling 2480 but win your 3200 parlay for a total of 720.

Just for sake of showing how including those last 2 games in the parlay hurt you...if you had just bet an 8 teamer, it would have been worth ~880, and by having to hedge twice to guarantee yourself the most possible money, it costs you 160 or almost 20%.

In deciding if you should hedge, ask yourself this: would I bet 720 dollars on a side in the pro bowl? Because that is essentially what you are doing. A parlay is just rolling bets over into the next selection. By picking a pro bowl side, you are essentially saying when you make the parlay that you are comfortable betting ~800 on that pick since in order for that game to matter you would have to win the first 8 bets.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do. I'd take the ~700 guaranteed if I were in your situation but that's just me.