cave0707

Wow, I didn't think my one post would generate much of a discussion but it looks like there's some interest here.   FIRST, let me clarify something regarding the term "novice investor" vs a term I didn't use "stock trader".  I come from a different perspective due to my investing/trading background so I use the term "investor" differently than some folks.  I can be out of a position in a relatively short time period (day/s and many would consider this day trading, swing trading, etc, etc) but I also can be in a position long-term (years and most would consider this time frame investing), all of this depends on my "sell rules".  But I prefer not to use the term trader since that doesn't accurately describe what I wish for YOU and how I've made my money (quote from Jesse Livermore "It never was my thinking that made me the big money for me. It always was my sitting.")  I'm not here to discuss the usage or define trader vs investor for this thread.  SECOND, I clearly  mentioned "stock /bond / crypto" which is not a basket of investments like an index, stock, balanced, asset allocation and/or any other type of FUND, I meant individual securities.  And what you decide to trade/invest/etc, etc, etc, is up to you. THIRD and lastly, it is in your best interest to learn how to sell an individual security.  Why do you ask?  Because selling also encompasses RISK MANAGEMENT.  You can hedge, yes you can, you can diversify, yes you can but if you go in dancing with individual stocks/cryptos/etc,etc,etc without a selling plan (which most importantly includes cutting your losses = risk management) you WILL GET BENT OVER and it will hurt. This is how most stock/crypto folks lose a fortune, they never learn how to sell.  Don't let that fool be you.  Maybe I should not have mentioned the status of the current bull market and the timing of when that bear arrives since I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't care one way or another as I'm prepared for it.  I want you to be too.  That's all folks.  My background? Analyst when I was young, dumb, drunk, doing drugs & Portfolio/Fund Manager when I was not so young, boring & mature, ... and now flying solo as my hair has turned all gray.  Good luck folks, I wish you GOOD FORTUNE and the VERY BEST NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO IN LIFE!!

Instead of coming up with buy ideas, I think it is better for a novice investor to learn a strategy FIRST before venturing into the tail end of a 14/15-year bull market with high hopes.  That way when you decide to buy whatever you buy, you'll have a clear-cut idea of how or when to sell that same investment.  Maybe your sell point will result in a short or long-term capital gain, but if it is a loss, hopefully your strategy will get you out with minimal damage to your portfolio.  Folks, I trade for a living and I've been doing this shit since the dot-com era.  If there's one thing you need to learn, it's risk management.  Everybody talks about what to buy, when to buy, buy this or buy that but I rarely read any posts saying what somebody sold, when they sold, especially WHY they sold.  Learn how to sell a stock/bond/crypto before you buy, that way you'll never get hurt when that bear market comes ... and it's coming folks ... and when it does ... its gunna knock your lights out if you don't have a game plan.  I wish you guys the best of luck.  

@williamwallace

 Ooops, you're right!! It's missing ... his 2024 record!! He's down 32 units. Now it's there!! 

@ Vanzack

Chauster makes a decent point here.  Let me put it another way.  If you're willing to wager 32 units on the Cowboys +185 (estimate) moneyline, wouldn't that bet be worth a 3 or 4 unit wager on Cowboys +4.5 (estimate) for that day's card or selections?  Your big bet is usually around 4 units, what the hell are you doing betting 32 units on a +185 ish NFL MONEYLINE, doggy dog?  Are you on tilt?  Did you catch a case of Down Syndrome after you went 0-2-1 for the day?  Can somebody explain the rationale or strategy here?  The meticulous bargain shopper, goes on a weekly worldwide hunting expedition for the best lines and value available, runs a carefully designed NFL simulation model that has been in successful operation over the last 20-plus years (excluding 2024), issuing 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4 units per play, all the sudden bets 32 units on the +185 ish moneyline Dallas Cowboys on a random Sunday night.  What am I missing? 

@Vanzack, is there a number of units you would need to be down before you shutdown for the year ... regroup ... refocus and try again next year? Down 50 or 75 units? Most people have some idea of where that number of units or amount is ... just curious what yours is in terms of units.

@vanzack

 Are we seeing favs win and cover because this is the new NFL, or is it just a blip? ... This may or may not be the new NFL but favs winning and covering is not the right question to ask, imo.

 But telling the future is tough business, and one of the most difficult tasks is separating out trends with causation from variance.  I always talk about correlation with or without causation - and this is just another example. ... (#1) Is there a correlation with causation regarding pressure rates, sack rates, and hurry rates and picking the winner ATS? (#2) If the answer is yes, then the next question is ... can you still identify the team that should win the pressure rate battle? (#3) If the answer is yes, is the team that wins that pressure rate battle covering the spread? Obviously, if you answer no to question #3 then there's no correlation with causation regarding your highly regarded predictor (pressure rates, sack rates, and hurry rates) and winning result/picking team ATS.   

I don't know all the important metrics that go into your process or predictor model but why not revisit the big ones first, make sure they're rock solid.  No need to wait for father time to give you the answer 3 years from now after you've been bludgeoned another 120 units.  I applaud you for reducing your units but maybe you can consider reducing even more for the time being until you get this little situation sorted out.  I recommend having some skin in the game instead of shutting it down.  I equate this to paper trading stocks ... it has its limitations ... you don't truly learn how to trade until you have money on the line.  You'll never learn from your mistakes until you make them with your hard-earned dollars.  Same concept here.  I wish you the best, I hope I don't sound like some know it all prick, just hoping you turn it around.  Good luck.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2024-college-football-bowl-opt-outs-transfer-portal-updates-injury-tracker 

To see who's in or out. 

@vanzack

Most people can think of three or four reasons for "why" they should buy a particular investment but can't think of one reason for when or "how" to sell that same investment.  Remember this, "one way in, three ways out."  You only need one reason, or one buy point for any specific investment but should have at least 3 ways out of that same investment.  The bigger picture concept of "one way in, three ways out" is managing risk or knowing when to sell an investment is much more important than knowing when to buy an investment.  If you make risk management your number one priority, it'll keep you in the fight no matter how many bad stock (or cyptocurrency) picks you make.  If you don't, all you need is one bad pick and that could set you back for years or decades.  I say "how" to sell an investment because it should be a "process" that leads to timing and consistency.  A process that you can duplicate over and over.  No luck needed.   

Lol. Good luck.

@Van,

It looks like your units are lower than usual, are you dialing it back until you get some positive results?  If that's the case, I applaud you for taking action (regarding risk management).  I've said this before and I'll say it again, I'd consider taking it further and going to quarter units until you get some traction.  I know it sounds stupid but it works.  I've traded stocks for a quarter century, and one thing I learned about managing risk is to drastically reduce starting position size when things aren't going my way.  The bludgeoning to the account is kept to a minimum and my sanity goes unmolested.  Just a side note here, probably nothing wrong with your formula (pressure rates, sack rates, hurry rates, etc) but what about the subjective part?  The part where you use your judgment that's maybe not so much backed by numbers but your eyes, brains, "gut feelings", how much of a role does that play in your "process"?  Maybe that's where you need refocusing ... ... ... either way, good luck.  

I've been in some silver for over a year now.  It's lagging gold but will probably catch up to gold toward the end of the gold run-up as it did some 13/14 years ago ... ish.  I traded silver back then too and it was simply unbelievable.  The gold/silver ratio is around 85 ish right now.  That's in nose bleeds territory historically and should come back to around 50's long-term.  When silver finally catches up to gold, don't be surprised if that ratio goes to 30 like it did 13/14 years ago which means you'll easily double your money if you bought some silver today.  Good luck to you guys. 

@Vanzack,

Have you considered your results are now resulting in "high variance" instead of "variance"?   Your results are no longer landing in the "mean" which should be within the meat of a standard bell curve.  Your bell curve is more or less, shallow now ... not like a pretty bell, but like a mound ... if you know what I mean (no pun intended).  If I were you, my 2024 NFL betting objective is no longer to make a profit, instead it would be to determine if the selection process still works (1).  The second objective would be to maximize your risk management (2).  Kill two birds with one stone.  Continue your process (1) but lower your units (2) substantially.  Do quarter units with maybe 1 unit being a big bet (4 units was it?).  The remaining weeks in the regular schedule and the playoffs should give you enough data points to determine if your process is broken (high variance) or if it's simply variance.  In the meantime, you've managed your downside risk.  You can go into the 2025 NFL season with a clear game plan once you get a better idea of what you're dealing with minimal risk.  I'm rooting for you, but I'm seeing something with your results I haven't seen before ... something is clearly off brutha.  Good luck to you.  May the force come back to you!!!

While not a big losing week, another losing week nonetheless. I wish Vanzack the best but there's clearly something wrong with the methodology, it ain't working ... the process is broken ... the magic juice is gone. 

@sweet_unison

 Shut your trap you bad charma motherf@cker.  I said his losing streak ends tomorrow. End of story. 

Your losing streak ends tomorrow ... 

Good luck this year Van!  

I'm pretty sure it's not, but ... just had to ask ... just in case.  hehehe. 

@vanzack

 Let me rephrase that ...  is your profile picture YOU?

@vanzack

 I always wanted to ask ... is that profile picture YOU? 

So f*cking true, thanks for the laugh.