clutchshot

so my guess is, you are betting your house on this one ? good luck with that. btw, texas fans are not taking texas after last weeks debacle. and no one who had money on them last week will pound them again. this is why just a selected few will collect here.

Simply not true. Maryland had 2 turnovers in the game and Georgia Tech had only one. Both quarterbacks sucked, and Maryland simply outplayed Georgia Tech playing their own game. Maryland averaged 6 yards per carry on the ground and Georgia Tech averaged only 4.5 yards per carry. Remember that Maryland had a chance to win it late but they turned it over on downs close to midfield. Then they could not make the key 3rd down stop to get the ball again. Georgia Tech outplayed Maryland for three quarters and run out of gas. Thats what teams without defense do. You can run it up and down the field with your offense for some time, but that will wear you down at one point. Georgia Tech was doing it against everyone in first 4 weeks and then they got worn down late by both NCST and Maryland. They survived in both contests and it is just question of time when they will just lose one because they are getting exhausted. And it could very well happen this week as they play a team that had an extra week to prepare for them.

The only thing I am <over-thinking> here is wether or not I should take the Texas moneyline. If you were patient enough to read my writeup until the end, you would notice that I said that both teams were overrated, not only OKST. The only difference is that Texas got exposed while OKST is next in line. I never watch ESPN so that ESPN hype you are talking about is not influencing me.

Good thinking there. GL

But they stil lost both games, right ?

They allowed 51 against Nebraska losing every quarter, and T.Martinez had a career day against that OKST defense with 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and 323 yards passing.  OKST had just over 25 minutes of possession.

Oklahoma scored 47 against OKST winning 3 of 4 quarters against them and they actually scored 47 against OKST despite turning the ball over 3 times. OKST had the ball for just over 24 minutes.

Texas +7.5

Once again, I dont expect the average capper on this site to agree with me but I dont care. I am here to post my plays, and everyone else should do the same. I never post in other people threads regardless if i agree or disagree with their selections. If I can help with some info, I post it, if not, I stay away. And you should do the same. I will never change my mind if someone else disagree with me, and you should never change your mind if someone tells you that you are wrong. The games have to be played on the field before we can judge a pick or a capper. Since last season when I started posting here I posted a lot more winners than losers and I will continue to do so. This play on Texas is my 2nd biggest bet of the season in college football.

Scouting Texas:

Texas looked like a better team this season up until last week when they lost to Oklahoma. Some people were actually saying that Texas football was back. Now we know that Texas is not that good. However, when you lose the turnover battle 5-1 against a team like Oklahoma, you have to be lucky to lose by only 38. Texas kept the ball for 38 minutes in that game and had the same number of first downs as Oklahoma (22). Their pass efficiency defense is stil ranked #1 in the Big 12 and Oklahoma State is a pass oriented team. The Longhorns offense will score early and often against that OKST defense.

Scouting OKST:

Many will say that Texas played a bunch of crappy teams before facing Oklahoma, and that is true. But who exactly did Oklahoma State play ? Just take a look at those defenses. Kansas dead last in CFB (#120), Arizona (#115), Tulsa (#110), Texas A&M (#99), and LAF (#57 but only one game played against a BCS school). So, maybe Oklahoma State offense isnt that great either. And how about their defense ranked #103 in the nation ? People just dont see the big picture sometimes. They will react and overreact to the most recent game like crazy. Oklahoma State is just not that good.

The X-factor:

Texas is 19-5 ATS after playing Oklahoma. Since 1998 they won every single game after playing Oklahoma (13-0) and since 1999 they covered all but one game after playing Oklahoma (11-1 ATS). Last season they lost to Okalhoma but upset Nebraska in their next game. Finally, if you think that they will be down after losing to Oklahoma, think again. They are 8-0 SU since 1993 and 11-1 ATS since 1984 after losing to Oklahoma by at least a TD.

Other plays:

Duke +14 buy 0.5

Virginia +7

Tampa Bay +3

Good luck all !!!

Winner. Despite winning the game, GAT exposed as a fraud.

Using some of the winnings to buy 1 pt with UNLV to UNLV +21.5

(small play)

Thanks, but there arent easy plays in any week. And no play is easier than another. We can just like one play more than other play. And what seems easy to you is often an easy no play for someone else.

Quote Originally Posted by Teaser78:

so let me get this straight ...  your placing your gambling career in the hands of a team that lost to Temple and is playing on the road against a team who basically scores on every drive ... good luck with that buddy .. im sure there is alot better game to do that on

Maryland is playing Georgia Tech tomorrow, not Temple. Remember, that Temple game was two weeks ago. Virginia Tech lost to James Madison last season and then thrashed 11 teams in a row. Just a handfull of teams in college football can play with same effort in every week during the season. Thats why we have 1, 2 or 3 unbeaten teams in the end year in and year out. And even those unbeatens usually end their season with at least one game where they almost lose to a lesser opponent. The sports gambling is not that easy as some here tend to believe. The easiest way to the poorhouse in this biz is to rationale like team A beat team B and team B beat team C, so team A will beat team C. It just doesnt work like that in sports. Temple is a very very good team. I would take Temple over anyone Ga Tech played so far this season, especially in underdog role. But hey, that same Temple team lost to Toledo last week. And Toledo lost big against Boise, while pushing Ohio State and Syracuse to the limit. Got it now ?

Taking:

Carolina +7 buy the hook

Eagles moneyline

Seattle +10 buy the hook

Jacksonville -1

Oakland +6

Denver +4

Chicago +5

Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



Edsall has always focused on winning the conference.   Not saying that Maryland wins or even covers, but a conference game and a non-conf game are two different things.

Exactly. 10-6-1 ATS last 17 in ACC and 4-8 ATS in non conference play during the same time. Marylands coaching stuff doesnt care about out of conference games.

yards per point

No ?

Take it from someone who is in this biz for 30+ years. There is not a single stat in football that is more reliable for football capers than yppt, both offensively and defensively.

Offensive YPPT (the lower, the better):

Maryland 15.8 vs opponents averaging 18.0 (Maryland 2.2 better than what their opponents usually give up).

Ga Tech 11.4 vs opponents averaging 12.9 (Ga Tech 1.5 better tha what their opponents usually give up).

Obviously, Maryland faved MUCH better defensive teams this season than those that Ga Tech faced.

Defensive YPPT (The higher the better):

Maryland 16.2 vs opp.13.1 (Maryland 3.1 better)

Ga Tech 13.4 vs 13.6 (Opponets 0.2 better than Ga Tech)

Marylands opponents better tha Ga Tech opponents offensively as well.

Ga Tech has a better offensive YPPT than defensive YPPT. Too bad as Marylands defensive YPPT is better tha Ga Tech offensive YPPT.

Please tell me a single stat that is better at predicting games in football than YPPT. Rushing averages ? Passing averages ? Points scored or allowed ? Sorry but none of these will help you predict the outcome of games better than YPPT.