coachscorner

NCAA Big play #2: Appalachian State +17.5

Appalachian State defense saw Georgia Southern offense in action last two seasons, unlike S.Alabama and Georgia Tech defenses who were the most recent victims of this very good Eagles offense. And not only that. Appalachian State beat Georgia Southern both times, ending their 14 game home winning streak two years ago, and then handing them their worst loss of the season last year. Georgia Southern os all about running game, and Appalachian State was spectacular against the run in last two games, after being tortured by Michigan ground game in week 1. This series has a history of close games, and I expect another one here. I will have another big NCAA play Saturday.

Won with Washington State +pts Saturday, and that was my first pick YTD in football. Starting the NFL season with Jacksonville +7.5 (pinnacle). Something is wrong with the Colts. Looks like they do not know yet what is going on, and with a short week to rest and prepare, they should not be able to correct the bad things. It is easy for Jaguars, they know they suck. The things are so bad for them that they can only improve. This will be a tight divisional game decided by 3-7 points.

1-0

Washington State +23.5
This team is the only team in PAC12 that owns a 4-0 ATS record against Oregon last 4 seasons. They have a pass happy offense and that offense can score points. They lead the nation in passing yards this season. As for Oregon defense, they allowed 4 passing touchdowns in last two games and that equals the number of passing touchdowns they allowed in first 6 games last season. And then in game #7 they allowed 4 passing touchdowns to Halliday (Washington State quarterback). That same guy has 11 passing touchdowns in two home games this season. He is throwing picks too, but far less at home than on the road. His TD/Int ratio is 17-4 in last 4 at home and 9-9 in last 4 on the road. Taking points with Washington State and their senior QB.

Redskins +3

No time for a write-up.

This is not the same Duke team that starts well against bad teams only to lose game after game against good teams. This Duke team started out slow and then covered and won every game in October and November. I am not expecting them to win, but I expect them to cover.

DUKE +29

DOY never really in doubt...12-5 big football plays

two biggies...

carolina -7.5 and kansas city +4.5

washington state +17 my dog of the year (big)
underdog 14-5 ats in last 19 in this series winning 7/last 15 outright...only 2 of last 19 meetings decided by more than 17...

other dogs for this week, both big plays:

georgia state +7.5 to get their first win of the season....

tcu +13...baylor to lose 2nd game in a row...

good luck

Ole Miss +3, big

Missouri really needs this one. So, why am I going against them ? Because this team has been known for choking in important games. The chances are they will choke either this week or next week against Texas A&M. And I would not be surprised to see them lose both games. They could get ahead against Ole Miss, but the Rebels will not quit. They are playing good football, and with this being their last home game of the season, I can see them give all they have on the field in the spoiler role.

10 points lead is nothing spectacular, it happens in almost every football game that a team takes a 10 point lead at one point of the game and lose it. Their 21 points lead against Bowling Green came too early, and Bowling Green is a very good MAC team. The lead over Buffalo was so big that they did not care about the game any more once up 38-0 in the 3rd and 48-27 in the 4th. That win was never in question. The important thing is that they won all three games. Guess what, even the best teams in the nation sometimes have hard time holding onto a big lead. Alabama could not hold on a 21 points lead against aTm. They had a 21 pts lead twice late in that game and aTm was able to cut it down to 7 both times. But Alabama win was not really in question. Heck, even aTm had a 14-0 lead in that game against Alabama and lost the game easily. Baylor had hard time holding on to their double digit lead in Kansas State. Oregon had a 14 pts halftime lead against Washington and they entered the 4th quarter up by only 7. Missouri dominated S.Carolina on the scoreboard and lost in OT. Auburn had a 20 points lead in the 2nd quarter and in the 4th quarter against Georgia but needed miracle to win the game. As for Georgia, they had a 27-14 2nd half lead at Vandy and lost the game. My point is, things like that happen every week, even to the best teams out there. I am not scared that Toledo will not be able to come from behind if they trail NIU. They were able to come from behind and tie the game or take the lead three times against Ball State. They did it 4 times against Navy. They trailed Missouri 24-9 but cut it down to 24-23 on the road in just over 7 minutes.

Toledo +3

N.Illinois is the best team in the MAC but Toledo is no stranger when it comes to playing games against top teams. They already played against 2 MAC teams that were 5-0 or better in the conference at one point of the season (Ball State, Buffalo), one team that started 3-0 in the conference (Bowling Green, 5-1 in the MAC so far this season), 1 team that started 7-0 overall (Missouri), and two games on the road against SEC teams (Mississippi State and then ranked Florida). And how about those other out of conference opponents like E.Washington (2nd best team in division II, team that won @ Oregon State), or always dangerous Navy ? This is a team that is red hot right now, clicking on all cylinders, scoring 45 or more in 4 of last 5 games, winning all 5 home games this season. Northern Illinois is a good football team, and I am not taking anything away from them. Their game against Ball State proved that. But other than Ball State they played a very easy schedule this season, with best opponents being Ball State and Iowa. It is not their fault that teams like Purdue and Kent State are having a very bad season, but it is their fault that they had hard time beating teams like Idaho and Akron. These two teams are 5-16 on the season. They also escaped E.Illinois (good division II team) with a 4 pts win. E.Illinois led almost the entire game, leading 20-0 early on. Toledo is a very good team at home, this is their last home game of the season and home dogs in revenge situation playing their last home game of the season are usually very good. I am all over Toledo +3 (-119).

11-3 big football plays

North Dakota State -5.5 is my 1st CBB play this season.

Nice home court advantage, 13-1 last 14 home winning 12/14 by 6 or more. Also, they are 17-1 in last 18 not true road games (home & neutral). Most of their problems come in true road games where they are 8-10 in last 18.

Winner Sunday. I am taking Carolina -3 big Monday. #1 defense in yards allowed and points allowed. Hottest team in NFL right now. 3-0 last 3 at home outscoring opponents by the combined score of 102-25. Their only home loss this season came in week 1 against Seattle, and Carolina had the lead at halftime and after the third in that game.

New Orleans is 21-5 ATS in last 26 at home (5-0 SU this season) and San Francisco is 13-1 ATS (8-0 SU in last 8) after upset loss. So, obviously somethings gotta give. New Orleans home streak is quite impressive but I just had too take a closer look at their opponents. The best team they played at home this season was Dallas, but not the same Dallas team that challenged Denver when Broncos were playing their best football of the season, but rather the Dallas team that barely edged Minnesota and lost a huge lead in Detroit before that. Other than Dallas, they faced Buffalo (3-4 then, 3-7 now), Miami missing a key player (3-0 then, 4-5 now), Arizona (1-1 then, 5-4 now, but also 1-3 on the road) and Atlanta (0-0 then, 2-7 now). San Francisco is just in a different league compared to those teams. They are 6-3 this season and they were 27-10 in previous two seasons. San Francisco lost to red hot Carolina last week (now winners of 5 straight) and their other two losses came against 7-3 Indianapolis and 9-1 Seattle. San Francisco is better on the road than at home this season. San Francisco won two meetings with Saints in 2012 (in November and January). D.Brees was picked twice in each game and New Orleans offense combined 96 ryds in those two games. San Francisco defense did well in a loss last week. Their defense was unimpressive in first three games when they faced Rogers, Luck and Wilson but they are allowing only 12 ppg since then.

San Francisco +3.5

Texas Tech +27

Had a very long write up but somehow deleted it before clicking the submit button. No time to go into the details all over again, so I will give you a short version....Baylor very emotional last week against Oklahoma, they have a key game vs Oklahoma State coming up, they are banged up (some key players not 100%), the pressure is all over them. Texas Tech had more yards than Kansas State and Oklahoma State but they were blown out in both games. Nothing is expected from them the rest of the way, something like last season when they bounced back from their first loss to upset previously undefeated West Virginia and G.Smith or in 2011 when they bounced back from two consecutive losses to beat Oklahoma as a 4 touchdowns underdog. They have the #1 passing offense in the country and last season they surprised Baylor with a great game plan as they had more rushing than passing attempts which resulted in over 200 yards rushing. So, Baylor is not sure what to expect from TTU this season. Texas Tech has a long rest after this game and before playing their last game of the season vs Texas.

South Alabama +9

Fresh off their bye week, S.Alabama travels to Navy to face a team that played 4 extremely close games in a row (yes, last weeks game against Hawaii was close too). S.Alabama has 5 losses this season and the combined margin in those 5 losses was -12. Three times this season they lost the game in the final 7-8 seconds, and once with under 7 minutes left in the game. They had their chance late in the game @ Tennessee too. With a few lucky breaks going their way they could have been a 7-1 team right now. Two weeks of rest should be enough for them to re-focus and to prepare for Navy. As for Navy, they had all kinds of problems against winless Hawaii and their passing attack (Hawaii QB Schroeder was almost perfect with 246 pass.yards, 3 TD and 0 interceptions, completing 29 of 33 passes), but also their ground game (Iosefa rushed for 191 yards and 1 TD). A week before Notre Dame had over 500 yards of offense and rushed for 7.3 yards per carry against Navy, ND QB threw for over 240 yards and 2 TDs. Pittsburgh QB Savage had a solid game against Navy D as well, while Toledo and Duke moved the ball at will against the Midshipmen. Navy defense is horrible, and they should not be favored against anyone right now.

9-1

Good luck all !