CurlySharp

They failed to meet academic standards

Let me start by saying I think Kentucky is the team to beat (like most people) this year.  They bring back a lot of talent/experience to couple with an unreal freshman class.  That being said I will not be taking them as a future bet due to the short odds and anything can happen come March.  I also think Arizona, Duke and Wisconsin bring back teams that deserve to be heavy favorites for the national title, but as of now I haven’t taken any of them.

Gonzaga 30/1:  I’m a sucker for Gonzaga every year, and this year I think they have one of their best teams ever.  Being in the WCC means they are a lock for the tourney and if they can win well in the non-conference they should earn a high seed come March.  Pangos and Bell are seniors and have been starting together for a few years now.  Pangos is also back to full strength after being injured for a lot of last year.  They bring in 6-4 transfer Byron Wesley who averaged 18 and 6 for USC last season.  If he buys into the offense then that trio will cause significant problems for opponents.  Ex-Kentucky forward Kyle Wiltjer is eligble now too.  He is a sharpshooting stretch 4 who has been working on his post play during his year off.  7-1 Karnowski is now a junior and I expect close to a double-double a game for him.  As for depth, Dranginis and Vandy transfer McClellan should play solid minutes.

Texas 25/1: I really like the Longhorns this year.  They bring back all impact players from a solid team last year and add five-star 7-footer Myles Turner.  The frontcourt is big and talented, between Ridley, Holmes, Lambert, Ebeh and Turner they can bang down low with anyone.  The backcourt trio of Felix, Turner and Holland return and they were all very productive last year.  The Big 12 is tough this year so there is no doubt they will be battle tested come March.

SMU 75/1: Larry brown lost top recruit Mudiay to overseas play, but he still returns a team I believe can go deep in the tourney.  Moore is a great point guard and Kennedy is a beast down low.    Ben Moore, Yanick Moreira and Keith Frazier should all take steps forward this season.  And who doesn’t love Larry Brown leading a deep team with a chip on their shoulder after being left out of the dance last year.

Others I’m considering:  VCU 40/1, SD State 50/1, St. John’s 250/1 (stretch, I know).  And then possibly out of Wisconsin, Duke or Arizona.

5. Kansas State:  Marcus Foster returns after averaging 15.5 as a freshman, expect him to be in serious consideration for first-team conference honors this year.  They also return 6-7 Thomas Gipson, who was second on the team in scoring last season.  Sophomore Wesley Iwindu also showed a lot of promise as a freshman last year and I expect him to take strides forward as a starter this year.  I really admire the job Bruce Weber has done here since taking over as head coach.

6.  Oklahoma State:  they lose the talented backcourt duo of Smart and Brown from last year, which will hurt, however this team still has a lot of talent.  I still don’t think Le’Bryan Nash has lived up to the hype he had as a recruit yet and this is his team this year, I expect big production from him.  Michael Cobbins returns to the frontcourt from an injury last year and he is strong around the glass.  Guard Phil Forte also returns and he can really shoot the 3 ball, 44% last year. 

7. West Virginia:  Do-it-all guard Juwan Staten will have to put up huge numbers for the mountaineers, and that’s something he is very capable of.  He averaged ~18, 5 and 6 last year and I expect to see a similar line for this season.  Devin Williams returns to the front court after having a promising freshman season.  Gary Browne is a senior guard who will start beside Staten, I have never been really high on him, but he’ll be needed to produce in a team that lacks a lot of talent besides Staten.

8.  Baylor:  I’m not a big Baylor fan, I think they have really underachieved during the regular season in the past.  They lose Jefferson, Heslip and Austin from last year’s team and with them goes most of the scoring.  Chery is back to run the point, he’s a solid player but won’t carry the team.  Gathers is a talent in the front court, and he and Prince should prove to be a reliable duo down low.  Royce O’Neale also returns and he’ll start and play some quality minutes.  I could see the Bears struggling to score over the course of a lot of games.

9.  TCU:  Kyan Anderson is back and he’ll score a bunch.  Shepard had a good freshman year and will be more impactful this season.  Journey-man Trey Zeigler also transferred in and he was once a highly touted recruit, we’ll see if he can find some footing at TCU.

10. Texas Tech:  Lost their top two scorers from a team that was fairly bad last year.  They’re young and inexperienced, hopefully Tubby can figure something out but who knows.

1.  Texas:  I know Self and KU always take the Big 12 title and I’m probably in the wrong going against them this year, but whatever, I like this Texas team a lot. They return their top 5 scorers and bring in 5-star 7-footer, Myles Turner.  Taylor and Felix run the back court and both are capable of scoring and dishing. Taylor averaged 13 ppg and 4 asp last year, with Felix coming in at 11 and 3.  Junior Demarcus Holland is no slouch either, averaging about 7, 5 and 2 last year as the third guard option.  The front court is loaded as well.  6-7 Homes is back after leading the team in scoring last year.  Then they have center Cam Ridley back, he lead the team in rebounding and is constantly improving his offensive game.  Newcomer Turner should be in the rotation right away and will immediately contribute to an already very balanced team.

2. Kansas:  As always, Kansas enters the season with a ton of talent on the roster.  They lost Embiid and Wiggins from last year, but return most notably Wayne Seldon and Perry Ellis.  Ellis is a talented power forward who will bring experience and consistency to a team with some new pieces.  I thought Seldon was inconsistent last year, however when he played well he showed signs of greatness.  I expect him to be the go-to guy for them this year. Self brings in two immediate-impact freshman in 5-stars Kelly Oubre (6-7) and Cliff Alexander (6-9).  Both of these recruits should live up to their reputation and I expect them to start right away, both having potential of all-league/American honors.  Point guard position is a bit of a question, expect Frank Mason to take on most of the duties there. 

3. Oklahoma:  The Sooners are another team I am high on, I really think the Big 12 is loaded this year.  They return 4 of their top 5 scorers, losing only talented guard Cameron Clark.  Couches in the big 12 have been raving about how much of a monster year Buddy Hield could have.  Expect him to earn all-conference honors.  Cousins returns as well and he can really score the ball too.  Sophomore Jordan Woodard had a big year last year and I expect only improvements from him, averaged over 10 ppg last year and led the team in assists.  As for the front court, they return Spangler who averaged just under a double-double last year.  They bring in 6-8 transfer TaShawn Thomas from Houston, who was an absolute beast last year averaging 15 and 8.  If he can play right away, look out.

4. Iowa State:  Transfers, transfers, transfers.  That’s been the name of the game for the cyclones the past few years.  This year they have Bryce Dejean-Jones, an ex-UNLV guard and man can he score.  I’m expecting 15+ ppg for him this year.  They return Georges Niang from last year and he will be their best all-around player, averaging around 16, 4 and 4 last year.  They also have 6-6 senior Dustin Hogue back and I expect him to be one of their top few players this year.   Someone else to pay attention to is Monte Morris, he looked good in limited minutes last year, and I’m buying the hype on him having a big year as starting PG.

6.  Butler: Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones should shoulder most of the scoring this year.  Jones missed all of last year with an injury, but if he comes back at full strength he has all-conference potential.  Barlow is a steady and experienced point guard, he wont “wow” you, but he is a smart player.  The front court is a bit of a question mark.  Woods is a solid player; besides him the bigs on this team are unproven.

7. Seton Hall:  They bring in five star recruit and potential lottery pick Isiah Whitehead.  He should be a star immediately for the Pirates, and is almost impossible to guard one on one.  Gibbs is another good scoring guard, and Jaren Sina is a very smart player who can shoot.  Loses of Edwin and Teague will definitely be felt.  The front court is also unproven for Seton Hall.

8.  Providence:  Losing Bryce Cotton hurts, he was an unbelievably quick guard who could score in any way.  Ladontae Henton returns, he was solid last year and averaged second most points for them last year with 14 a game.  The thing that has Friar fans hopeful is finally having a healthy Kris Dunn.  If he lives up to potential then they could make noise.

9.  Creighton:  They lost McDermott, and that will obviously have a huge impact on the scoring numbers.  Sharpshooting big man Wragge is also gone, along with the very efficient Grant Gibbs.   They return some quality guards in Chatman and Dingman, but this team should have a down year.

10.  DePaul:  They lose long-time top player Cleveland Melvin, as well as the second leading scorer from last year in Brandon Young.  A lot of question marks on this roster, should be another lowly year for the Blue Demons.    

1.  Villanova:  Return a rock solid team here, should be the class of the conference.  Bring back Hilliard, Pinkston and Arcidiacano.  All three have conference honors potential and should be the core of a high seed come tourney time.  Josh Hart is another good player and his numbers should improve. Ochefu is a anchoring the front court and is a very capable big man.  Only big loss they had is James Bell who was a stellar player, but they bring back enough for another quality season.

2.  St. John’s:  I have been burned by the johnnies in the past, but I like them to have a good year in what will prove to be a mediocre conference.  They have some potential NBA talent on the roster. Harrison can really score, Obekpa is a defensive presence down low and he should be better than last year.  I like Rysheed Jordan to make leaps scoring this year too and along with seniors Greene and Pointer they will have a good mix of maturity and talent.  They play out of control at times, but if they can come together and play smarter this year they can hang with anyone.

 3. Georgetown:  Smith-Rivera is a serious talent and a quality do-it-all guard.  He is a future NBAer and they have more talent around him than they had last year.  While eligible, Josh Smith looked good last year, if he can play all year he is an absolute force in the paint.  Senior Jabril Trawick is back too and he should average double digit points for them. They also bring in highly touted freshman Isaac Copeland who should make an immediate impact.   They struggled from 3-point land last year shooting ~33% last year as a team, if they can find some consistent shooting from deep that would do wonders for the offense. 

 4.  Xavier:  They lose Semaj Chrstian who was a great guard for them last year, however they bring back enough to compete for an at-large bid come March.  Matt Stainbrook returns and is probably the best big man in this league.  He is a great low-post passer and he is very good around the rim.  Senior Dee Davis is back and will take over the main back court duties, I look for his PPG to take a big leap forward from the 7.7 he averaged last year.  Trevon Bluiett comes in as an immediate impact freshman and could start off the bat.

5.  Marquette: Love the hire they made of long-time Duke assistant Wojciechowski.  This team underachieved last year and lost impact players Gardner, Mayo and Wilson.  They bring in BYU transfer Matt Carlino who is a good scorer and facilitator.  Derrick Wilson, JaJuan Johnson and Deonte Burton are capable of having big years and their scoring numbers should improve from last year. 

8. USF:  Lose top two scorers, but floor general Anthony Collins returns and he averaged 6 dimes a game last year.  I also think Allen and Perry will take small steps forward during the year and prove to be quality scorers.  This team likes to play slow and will frustrate a lot of opponents.

9. UCF:  Lose top three scorers, most importantly Sykes, who was a beast last year.  They do have a lot of young talent; I think it will take time for them to mesh and for players to find out the best role for them.  Kasey Wilson is the only senior, look out for him to have a strong year and improve on his 9 PPG average last year.

10.  Tulane: They actually return their top six minute getters from last season.  They went 8-8 in CUSA last year and I think they will struggle a little more in the AAC.  This is a very small team, and one that likes to play very slow, 320^th in adj tempo a year ago via kenpom.  It will help that they are essentially the same team as last year, however I don’t think the talent is there to compete very strongly this year. 

11. ECU:  They lose Akeem Richmond, who averaged team-high 18 PPG last year.  They went 5-11 in CUSA last season and I look for them to finish in the basement their first year in the AAC.  Richmond’s scoring will be tough to replace, however he did take a ton of shots.  The ball shouldn’t stick as much on offense, I just don’t know if they have enough quality players to compete well this year.