Dac03

Gobert may not even play, edwards and Kat both out. Lakers really would have to lay this one down but should be an easy W that they need. And I hate betting on Lebron 

Apologize for typos at the end, lol typing on phone while watching game.

unfortunately this method ONLY applies to FanDuel Sportsbook as far as I know, it’s the only one I’ve found who offers this market. Have been at this for 3 weeks and have hit 3 times (betting 8 different games)— exact score.

Odds are insane and theory is very simple, and I’ll just use last week for examples.

theory is just taking Vegas lines, figuring the most probable score based on that, adjusting to your lean, and take 4-6 different scores. I have been taking 4 different scores, have 6 tonight. Only 2$ each will get $250+ minimum 

lines is 3.5 and 38.5. I like the under, so my bets are around 17-14, 20-13, 17-13, etc…. 3 for bears winning 3 panthers winning. 

Last week started off the week with a win. 20-16 Steelers, line was -3 and 36. Almost a dead match. 
Skip London games.

Skip Rams (Stafford)

Tried the Texans game 20-17, nowhere close.

Had patriots 20-17. On number, wrong team I’ll skip to the relevant ones.

Saints 24-17. Right on both numbers.

Eagles 28-23, everyone liked the over. 23 is a tough play, but I had 28-24…

None of the other games were close to the theory, but 25-30% of the games each week seem to be playable for these insane odds. Sick of always hearing “wow Vegas is good ain’t they!?”… well seems this is a long shot opportunity where you only risk 10-20$ to be right with them. 

I probably won’t post again on third because it’s self explanatory y’all can keep up on your own if your interested. I have never been able to bet exact-scores before now and get like I should share, fun thing to do and like I said, been working so far…

BOLTA 

He’s not playing lol 

Been a while since I’ve seen this bad of a homering. I have 3 wrong possession calls, 2 ghost foul calls, and 2 fouls on Florida that were NOT called all in the 2h. If this game gets any closer and you can get any value, everything available on Florida…. Refs won’t let them lose this game. 

Florida would have to win the 2h by 4, which would lose by 2, so unless a back door halfcourt buzzer beater…. They need to win this game to win the 2h.

wish I had the +200 on ML, but I’ll take it at -110. Miss st isn’t losing this game, dominant on boards won’t change, and 2h adjustments will fix the turnovers (caused mostly by the press) that Florida surprised them with. They’ve shown their cards, forced turnovers, and shot above 40% from 3. I don’t think Florida can play much better, much lesson win this game without Castleton.

MISS st +3.5 2h 

Game actually delayed?? Or being postponed ….? 

Appreciate the input ! Could definitely be something to lookout for esp in a back door situation, will be playing the over for smalls as well. I think FIU was #2 in the country in 3s made per game a few weeks ago… 

 Haha yep, my bad. I would edit, but like you said, I think anybody that is interested in these games know the fuck up I made lol. Point still stands for informational purposes 

Obviously tons of factors go into the lines, but this seems to be a point of emphasis for a lot of people, so just sharing some research..

The biggest discrepancy is Detroit, around 175 strength of opponents, playing PFW at 325, getting 1 on the road

North Kent is getting 7 on the road, LMD has the 350th sos according to kenpom (out of 358 teams). N kent isnt MUCH better, but its lower than 300...

The only reason I looked at this next game is because as soon as the line a red flag went up... A good n covering Youngstown team laying 3 to a 3-10 lafayette...

havent figured out the game and its a pass for me, but YST sos is a terrible 338... lafayette right around 250, and on the road

And for the play of the day. Just happens to fit into this thread as well--

**UAB -16** (17 now, not worried) 

at home against FIU. I like FIU being 10-5 and with a solid ATS record also think that helped the line stay under 20 and the whole world taking UAB...but UAB is legit, can score at will (love taking their overs) and I think will make some noise in the tourney this year.  FIU SOS is 349 (kenpom).... UAB is on fire at home, and 4-1 ATS when a 16 point or more favorite ....  I dont see a way FIU is able to keep up or keep this a game for very long on the road

BOTLA 

On them small, only because road game conference play and I haven’t seen a single person on Butler on any website prodcast or TV show. Think a lot of people will take Xavier mL and just seems like a spot where public get burned

well the pickup started later than expected. Based on the deficit I still like the over, which is almost back to the original line now, as everyone expects them to pickup where they left off. 

However we’ve lost the value, so reducing the wager…..saw it as low as 128.5, hope somebody took that live  

rough start, 2-3 tarleton didn’t take them seriously decided to just say “we’re better” and toy with them, very surprising. Anyway….

Halftime should be in about 5/10 min in the UTEP game. Over sitting little under 130. 

Not a lack of pace so far, utep just shooting shooting awful, think they’ll turn it around and pick up the pace in the 2nd half. LAtech not a team to sit on the lead they’ll keep shooting with them. They should get to 80. I think the original over may be in play but that’s a stretch…. 81-58 

3 of my favorite teams to play on/against coming up soon

undortunately just realized one is started already but will post anyway for live betting 

Grand Canyon- tarleton-long beach 

Grand Canyon under/ tarleton teaser-
Line has gone up quite a bit in GC and 147.5 is very high for this defensive minded team. Tartleton also same kind of team very discipline against an awful SHS squad, can’t see them losing outright

tarleton under- to the same note as the aforementioned, Looking at a 60-45 type game here

Long Beach and over.

180 point first time around, I don’t see this matchup having a 37 point drop off.

Long Beach held fast with them til the “4th quarter” last time and lost their legs, but UCLA will give them the chance to run with them as they did before. 27 too much(again) , and over (again)

BOLA

Ouch lol 

Still deciding if Butler can do what Pitt did in weathering a few storms down double digits…

Butlers best scorer is also out, and that turned out really bad for them last game, he’s questionable for tonight, and a solid F also out for sure. With the injuries you already listed, I don’t see johnnies keeping their normal pace, they may actually play slow and look for higher value shots with having the normal scorers out who can create their own shot. 

definitely love the under here, and that usually bodes well for the dog… BOL Bags 

Hard to watch them just jack up wild 3s all game. Too much of a coin flip for me. 

Doubling down on a loser from Tuesday, and spotted a few more points this time. 

Tarleton State under 125

In short, the jags handled the pace and won on the offensive glass Tuesday at home, pushing the spread and breaking the over. Think Tarleton can get back to their game with a few adjustments and turn it around at home with a slower pace. Also a 7 point jump in the spread from Tuesday has me leaning on the Texans to win this one as well they’ve shown up against much better teams. 

side note, a “doesn’t make sense line”… I can’t imagine wake not winning by 15+ tonight and they’re only laying 9. Between that and some RLM, Guess gotta go small on Charlotte and the 9 

BOLTA

Was almost hoping SDST lost their last game … they don’t lose at home after a loss.

SDST -8.5 (8x)

This one is simple. **see above**. They’ve also had 6 days off, and play a team who hasn’t been on the road yet this year. Love a first road game meltdown ….

Just a great matchup for SDST who has their defense down PAT against a sun devils squad who’s roster is all jumbled up. Lots of new players, have some covid in and outs, hurts the consistency. SDST has become consistent. Sun devils have dominated the series for many years, the tide has finally turned in recent years and it’s not stopping tonight. AZTECS BY DD. (Under worth a throw as well) 

BOLTA