DeTerMiNeD

It's been reported that Jordan is 172 passing yards from 10,000 in his career.  He's also only 16 yards rushing from 1,000.  There are rumours that he's only going to play half in a game that Texas State should win easily.  If that's the case, while he's not a pro with financial incentives directly attached, achieving those 2 milestones in your last game is surely on his radar, and may factor into the timeline of how long he plays    

I'm giving this a shot for a unit: Jordan McLoud over 175 yards passing + Over 25 yards rushing, +144 (Fanduel) 

Best of luck! 

Haven’t seen this posted/confirmed yet, but Deion Burks (OU receiver) was just removed from lines on a couple of sportsbooks and Hawkins Jr. passing totals just dropped.  

Kicking myself for not jumping on the Navy line earlier.  

Purely based on the match-ups on the field, Chicago would need to be able to score consistently to have any chance at upsetting the Lions, and that's not going to happen.  The Lions ability to run the ball effectively with that 1-2 punch of Montgomery & Gibbs has forced defenses to keep 7 in the box and really opened up the play action pass for Goff, especially in the middle of the field.  

I can see Chicago being competitive, and while I wouldn't bet the cover with my own money, it's definitely possible, but Dan Campbell WILL be eating turkey legs tomorrow... bet on that! LOL 

Happy Thanksgiving!  

Just getting some prop talk started with the morning coffee…

Mike Gesicki Over 34.5 -110, like last week, expecting the Raiders to high/low JaMaar Chase; while listed as a TE, Gesicki runs receiver routes and has proven a reliable 2nd option with Chase seeing double coverage; caught 7 of 8 targets last week for 73 yards, and with no Higgins today, feel comfortable with this total 

DeVon Achane Over 5 yards receiving 1st Quarter -104, Tua’s safety valve, caught 6 balls in Tua’s return last week, 7 in week one and 7 in the week 2 match up vs. these Bills; with Hill and Waddle getting all the attention, he can work the flats and bang routes and screens; really like him in the mix early and often 

Khalil Shakir Over 5 yards 1st Quarter (alt) -192, like the one above, Shakir is Josh’s go-to-guy, and works a lot of short to mid-range throws 

CeeDee Lamb Over 10 yards 1st Quarter (alt) -250, short line but Dak will be feeding him the rock whether he’s double covered or not

Would love to hear your leans.  Best of luck 

FanDuel offering Calgary Over 10.5 First Half @ +100 right now... i'm all over this like flies on 

Winnipeg @ Calgary

The Bombers are too strong of a team offensively and too well coached to be in this funk much longer.  Each week, they've got progressively better on offense, and I look for that to continue today with Oliveira getting a heavier workload against a porous Stamps run D (120 ypg allowed).  For the Stamps, Maier has been efficient and with their balanced attack (and good rest), they should continue to find success against this Bombers D at home.  I'm on the OVER 47.5, feeling comfortable that both offenses will have some success tonight.  

Doesn't seem to be any end in sight on this issue... 

Curious about a lot of love for the Blue Jays on the forum this afternoon.  More of a play against Carrasco? 

Jays rolling with a bullpen game, starting Trevor Richards and no Bichette in the line-up.  Only Turner has faired well against Carrasco in limited AB's.  Admittedly, Carrasco's best years are behind him but this Guardians team is still far and away better than the Jays right now.

I'm leaning Cleveland on the ML and run line -1.5 @ +150

Looks like Vernon Adams making all the mistakes thus far.  He’s locked in on Rhymes on EVERY downfield throw ???????  Hatcher and Cottoy running open and Adams forcing throws.  

Argos haven’t been able to run but BC giving them short fields.

Interesting match up for sure, but Toronto and Chad Kelly hasn’t really been tested as of yet.  Argos were able to run the ball effectively against Hamilton and Edmonton but the Lions defensive front are stout, don’t see Harris and Ouellette gashing holes in this front.  I see a lot of 2nd and long for Chad today.  Can Kelly play mistake free and win this with his arm? ?? 

I’m on the Leo’s here ??

Giants / Yanks Under 8 -110

Covers was all over it too!  Under is 8-3 in the Giants’ last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 6-2 in their last eight during Game 3 of a series. The Under is 10-3 in the Yankees’ last 13 overall, and 12-2 in their last 14 games when their opponent scores five or more runs in their previous affair.

I got a little action on Rutgers winning by 11+ at +148 

Good luck on your wagers! 

Good luck 

Like Kittle over 46.5 receiving yards too (FanDuel)  He's averaging over 6 targets per game, and with Philly's stud corners occupied with Deebo and Aiyuk, I'll take Kittle against any Philly backer in coverage.  A safe throw for Purdy on the outs and seams!  

The soggy and gusty conditions will likely have an impact on downfield throws for Geno.  It’ll certainly be important for Seattle to establish the run, if only, for those play action opportunities.

I like DK to win those 50/50 balls, can Geno get it there? 

With you on Baylor! 

Seeing a lot of AF love, most keying on the weather.  Yes, it'll be cold in Fort Worth tonight, but skies clear and this is Division 1 football, both teams will be well prepared for that.  I don't think it'll have any impact on Baylor's offensive game plan.  They have the superior skill players and none of the opt outs are on the offensive side of the ball. 

Both teams love to control the clock with the run, but the difference is that Baylor CAN throw and has plenty of tools to take advantage of a undersized Falcon secondary.  Also taking Blake Shapen OVER 145.5 yards passing.   BOL 

I actually DO think the Raiders will move the ball effectively up and down the field. Problem is, they can’t finish the job, as their red zone TD efficiency is just under 45% 

Teams have hi-low’d (double teamed) Devante Adams for years, and he still catches 8-10 per game  

If I was going to take a side, I’d lean with you on the Raiders, but I’ll stick with props tonight with a belly full of Turkey and pumpkin pie 

Best of luck Mac and happy thanksgiving! 

With you on this one... I don't see the Cards establishing the run tonight. 

Also like Ertz Over 56.5 -125, he's averaging 10+ targets in each of his last 5 games, and has become a sure handed go-to on 3rd down for Murray. 

Michael Carter (NYJ) Rushing & Receiving Yards Over 63.5 -130

By design, the Jets are getting the ball out of Wilson's hands quickly, which is leading to a lot of check downs, screens, and out breaking patterns 10-yards or less.  Definitely see Carter getting at least 4-5 catches out of the backfield with aggressive Tampa ends speed rushing the edge.  While he won't have a big day running the football against this D, his 15 or so carries, in addition to his role as an outlet for Wilson should see him go over this total. 

Travis Kelce Over 73.5 Receiving Yards -125 

I think Covers made this one of their prop bets as well, but the stats don't lie.  Cincy is notoriously bad against tight ends, and Kelce is at least 20% of the Chiefs offense.  He's too fast/agile as a route runner for any LB to cover, and too big for any DB.  He's also Mahomes go-to on 3rd down.  Not reinventing the wheel on this pick - I think we'll see a lot of scoring in this one. 

Dawson Knox (Buff) Over 33.3 Receiving Yards -120

Has built a great relationship with Allen and as a result we've seen his targets double over the second half of the season.  His receiving yards per game averages over this number, and in what could be snowy conditions, the short-intermediate passing game will be key, and that's where Knox thrives.  Falcons give up 47 yards per game to TE's.  Good value in this situation. 

More to come but would welcome your thoughts, picks, etc.  Good luck today!