dirk41nowitzki

ugh.. i dont know what else to say.

im not going to double up with a halftime bet, but if i werent on the full game i would take +3.5

dkite... generally the ref trends take effect much more noticeably in the 2nd half. things will more than balance out.

Im almost not sure this is right... lakers are shooting 63% to 41% for the game and have 13 ft's to only 3 for houston, but only lead by 3 at the 5:53 mark in the 2nd.

I couldve done without that blake 3 with 2 sec left in the 1st. 6 points doesnt sound so close after 1 - lol.

yeah, they definitely arent going to just get run over.... they look pretty intense (as intense as the rockets can get).  CLose game and lakers getting all the calls so far, that will switch over as the game goes on i think. +8 is beautiful

That is crazy... lol.  The 3 of us should have lunch one day....  Sorry about the early one, ATL/CHI looks like it will cover handily though.

its gonna be tough to lose 70 in a 66 game season - lol.  i get your point, just thought it was funny.

bigbang - I used to live in what was "JEfferson on the cliff" 15 years ago, white apartments (or used to be) that overlook the bluff right there. I think they are an AMLI property now.  NOrthwest of the corner of that intersection.  I havent even been to arlington in about a year... but i know the area very well. small world indeed.

oh... and i watch a ton of NBA. Ive seen every mavs game for 15 years which by itself gives me a good feel  of the league, but i watch another 10-15 games a week on top of that (tivoed or staggered schedule etc). I am a huge mavs fan, but do not allow that to sway me from a moneymaking standpoint.  About 5 years ago, i learned to look for the game within the game - small things like coaching tendencies, ref preferences, player rotations etc.  THere are certain players that might be great defenders but have trouble guarding very specific players. It helps. If i had a slightly higher tolerance for risk, id be retired - lol.

smartbets - basic info is available on this site, go to ref assignments under the NBA dropdown.  Its a good place to start.... You look for blatant trends - lots of overs for both teams or unders for both teams or conflicting wins and loss streaks.  But sometimes the historical lines they have are off, so anything within 2 points - double check somewhere else (i.e. at times 4-3 can actually  be 6-1 or vice versa in reality bcuz a couple of "losses" are based on inaccurate closing lines).   www.nbastuffer.com has good data but everything is very raw, you have to sift through it and come to your own conclusions. It is organized better here on covers, but in both cases you REALLY have to do the work - it is not something you can glance at and make a call. I dont get like a report from some magical company every day that gives me the numbers i post, i do a lot of work to sift thru and evaluate that data. I am OCD and have a background in financial planning so i am very used to working with numbers and it actually feeds the "OCD monster" inside of me, so this is a good fit for me.  I do also have a couple of connections to various useful private sources that dont come into play often but are useful when they do.

bigbang12 - I grew up in ARlington and spent most of my life there.  Grew up close to collins and lamar and then as an adult lived at park springs and 20 for many years. I am in addison now.

DWADE - a pleasure as always.  just hoping for some winners tonight.

OK... here we go.

ATL/CHI UNDER 183 - LEAN

THE REFS...
CURTIS BLAIR - 7 of last 10 with ATL UNDER and CHI 7 of the last 10 UNDER ( both of those sets of 10 had 1 game each go over by 1 pt)

DAVID GUTHRIE - last 6 and 7 of the last 8 with ATL went UNDER (the lone over was OT). 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 with CHI went UNDER (the two overs were an OT game and an over by 3 pts).

JASON PHILLIPS - last 3 and 8 of last 10 with ATL went UNDER (both overs by 4 pts and one of the unders was an OT game that still snuck in 2 pts under).

Combined trend is 36-11(76.6%) but of the 11 OVERS - 3 were OT and 2 were 1 point losses. I kind of think i am going to kick myself for not making this a strong play, but gonna play it safe and call it a LEAN.

HOU +7.5 VERY STRONG

THE REFS...
MATT BOLAND - HOU has covered the last 3 he has officiated. LAL have NOT covered 8 of the last 9 with him on the court.

MARC DAVIS - HOU has covered 3 of the last 5 with him (and one of the non-covers was a push).  Also, LA LAKERS HAVE NOT COVERED 10 CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITH HIM ON COURT. 

MARAT KOGUT - HOU has covered the last 3 he has officiated.

Combined trend is 27-2-1.  On top of that there are some other factors... THis crew ( BOLAND and DAVIS in particular) have a general tendency to lean to the road team. At times, BOLAND is almost specifically defiant of the crowd and seems to go out of his way to make a point that he will not be influenced by a home crowd.  Lastly, KOGUT was on the court for the LAKERS 55 point win against CLE (112-57) almost a year ago to the day AND for a 28 point win against DAL in the last week of the season last year. That would seem like possible LAKER favortism, but i have it on good  authority that he was admonished by the league office after both games and was left off of the playoff rotation for some blatant no calls that should have gone against the lakers in both games as well as for generally allowing the CLE game to get that far out of hand.  How do you think he will react tonight knowing he is being watched closely? The game against the MAVS was the last LAKER game he has officiated.

You should be more than fine with a +7, but the line is starting to move in our direction (7.5's arent that hard to get) and you might get an 8 if you wait. Nothing is ever for sure, even at this strong a play - I still only go to 3x my regular amount... But you rarely get info THIS strong.

BEST OF LUCK, use them however you choose.

CORRECTION - *I* will be hammering HOU tonight. I try not to tell other people what to do with their money, and just veered from that. It is, however,  my strongest play of the year so far and will place 3x my normal wager on houston (splitting that 80% on HOU +7.5 and 20% on HOU ML +275). I rarely vary my bet amount. Do what you want with it... Data to follow in about an hour.

DWADE - I use 3 online and 2 local books, i can usually get a 2 point range. THe locals want action and i can even just talk them into 1/2-1 point moves at times depending where there action is. I placed that around 4:00 CST with a local. Id feel comfortable playing it at 185 though. I take it you didnt or i wouldve heard about it, but since it did land on 5 last night i wish you couldve snagged a 6 on MIL to go with you 4 1/2 or 5 on DEN.  A good local book is invaluable... sonetimes they are too smart for their own good - i.e. if you had 200 on DEN at -5 and call back and ask about lines, they are going to assume you are coming with more on DEN... SOmebody on their game quotes you a 6, and then you hammer them 500 on the other side. Bet amounts are relative - jsut pulled those numbers out of the air, i have no idea how much you bet per game, but you get the idea.

dkite22 - Ill answer your posts later tonight... kinda swamped shopping lines and getting plays in. 

FOr those who have enough faith to go blind, the other plays will be a LEAN to CHI/ATL under and absolutely fucking HAMMER HOU against the lakers tonight.   Just dont have the time to put up the statistical data yet.  I will as soon as I can.

Running a little behind, only posting the first game right now, but there are 2 more plays I will post in a little bit and one of them is VERY VERY STRONG.   For now...

CHAR/CLE UNDER 189. - LEAN

THE REFS...
DAN CRAWFORD - 6 of last 8 UNDER on CHAR and 3 of last 4 UNDER on CLE

KEVIN CUTLER - 2 of last 3 CHAR UNDER (1 of those unders was an OT game) and last 3 CLE games UNDER

GARY ZIELINSKI - 7 of last 10 UNDER for CHAR (1 over was OT) and last 6 UNDER for CLE

Combined trend is 27-7 (79%).  THis is a LEAN
So far all ref plays are 10-3-1 (LEANS and STRONG plays). Had a bad night last night going 0-1-1, should be much better tonight.

BEST OF LUCK, will post the other 2 plays in a bit.

Went 4-3-1 on selected unders last night. ALL games played went 5 unders, 4 overs and a push.  ALthough it has been small wins on 2 of the 4 days, this system has won all 4 days posted.  The facts so far...

FOR THE YEAR - EVERY GAME PLAYED
45 UNDERS (61.6%)
28 OVERS
2 PUSHES

ALL GAME THE PAST 4 DAYS (when this thread started)
23 UNDERS(63.9%)
13 OVERS
1 PUSH

SELECTED UNDERS OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS
16 UNDERS (61.5%)
10 OVERS
1 PUSH

I think the trend still has a couple more days left and even though yesterday was only a little above break even, it was very close to going 6-2 on selected and 7-3 overall.  I expect a little better than the 5-4-1 tonight.   I will be personally playing 5 of the 6, with the lone exclusion being the HOUs/LAL game - I just thing they get to running and score a ton of points tonight (205+), HOU in particular.  As for the other 5, i will be playing the top two are by far the strongest - ref info on those games to follow in that thread.  Ranked in order of strength.

1) CHAR/ CLE 189
2) ATL/ CHI 183
3) MIL/UTA 186
4) SAC/ MEM 190
5) POR/OKC 196

BEST OF LUCK.

oh...fuck my bad. I had NO/ UT graded wrong in my head. 5-4-1

I show 6-3-1 to the under... guess it depends on the numbers

Well, Dammit... 0-1-1 tonight on these plays. Had the Bucks game till literally the last couple seconds. MAVS game just didnt work on the total - worst play of the 14 so far.  THat said, I would play it again - feel like it works out 7 out of 10 times, this was just one of those other 3.

OVERALL on ref plays 10-3-1 (77%)
STRONG PLAYS 5-1-1
LEANS 5-2
 
Sorry guys....

DWADE... I obviously believe in the pic, but if a bet is already laid i hate for you to lose the juice on it. If its a local book you might can call back and ask what the line is, he will know which side you are on and if he is sharp he will quote you 6 this time.  Then you can come back on the other side and have the possibility of a win/push if it lands on 6 or double win if it lands on 5 (hopefully you got 4.5 on DEN). Just my thoughts.