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replied to Atlanta wins by appx 10, AND, tops the O/U by appx 10!!! in NFL Betting The body of work that you must consider is what each team has done the second half of the season and how they each went through the playoffs. Falcons defense after their bye week have been giving up less than 20 ppg. Take away the garbage points and they are giving up 15ppg. The Falcons are 12-0 when scoring 30 or more pts, which could very well happen. This game is going to be incredibly tight for three quarters baring injuries. View Post \| View Thread	lajohn	15	February 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to New England at Atlanta (02/05/2017) in Pro Football Food for thought; Falcons surrendered 28 ppg prior to their Week 9 bye week. Since then and including the playoffs they have given up 20 ppg, a much closer measure of their defense. I am going to take it one step further and take away the points that were scored in "garbage time", which I will qualify as points scored in the 4th qtr when the Falcons held a 3+ score lead at the end of the third qtr: 11/3 - Bucs, Falcons up 33-14, Bucs scored 14 in the 4th 12/11 - Rams, Falcons up 42-0, Rams scored 14 in the 4th 1/1 - Saints, Falcons up 38-13, Saints scored 19 in the 4th 1/22 - Packers, Falcons up 37-15, Pack scored 6 in the 4th If you take away the 53 points that were scored in what I refer to as "garbage time" the Falcons have a scoring defense averaging 14 ppg over the last 10 games Conversely, if we look at the Patriots using the same 10 game stretch with the same criteria: 12/4 - Rams, Pats up 23-3, Rams scored 7 in the 4th 12/24 - Jets, Pats up 34-0, Jets scored 3 in the 4th 1/22 - Steelers, Pats up 33-9, Steelers scored 8 in the 4th They allowed 151 points over this same 10 games taking away the same garbage time scores of 18 points give the Pats 13 ppg over the same stretch. This demonstrates that both defenses have gotten better but stresses that the Falcons defense is quite a bit better than their stat line is showing. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	74	February 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to C Alex Mack injury could have significant effect on the outcome of SBLI in NFL Betting He (Mack) sat one play in the NFC Cahmpionship game and then finished the game. They ( Falcons) reported early that it was a fibula injury and that he and Julio would not be participating in the first week of practice prior to heading to Houston. He is still listed as limited but did get his reps at todays practice. He as well as Julio are expected to be ready by Sunday. View Post \| View Thread	BrownianMotion	50	February 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Patriots by the numbers - Better defense than Denver in 2015 and best since 2013 Seahawks in NFL Betting If you are correctly going to analyze either defense one would need to look at the garbage yards and points when a team has a 3 or 4 score lead and remove them from your analytics. An example; Falcons were up 38-13 at the end of the 3rd qtr vs the Saints on Jan 1st. Brees was limited to less than 140 yds passing at this point. In the 4th qtr the Saints scored 19 pts and Brees threw for over 200+ yds. Bad defense or just putting your defense in a soft zone to run out the qtr? This was also the case vs the Panthers, Broncos, Bucs, Rams and to a large extent the Seahawks and Packers in the playoffs. If you are going to be smart about analyzing the defense for either team you must account for this our you could be on the wrong side of the bet come Sunday. My point, one cannot just look at the game score and properly deduct that they allowed a 7-9 team to put up 32 points, when the final score does not tell the true story. This defense did give up points this season but if you take away the "garbage" points after a late 3-4 score lead, it certainly gets you closer to the true measure of their defense. Be careful falling in love with the shiney paint as there is more than likely a little rust somewhere. Coaches care about the win and keeping players healthy, not stat lines. View Post \| View Thread	Bet_The_House	20	January 29, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Atlanta's resume is not that great in NFL Betting Now what, going to be all about Brady? This is a betting forum, not a romance novel. View Post \| View Thread	Scoop8282	24	January 23, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Green Bay at Atlanta (01/22/2017) in Pro Football Quote Originally Posted by redthundersky: heartfelt thanks to all the packer fans...i promise to spend the $$$ well You and me both... View Post \| View Thread	Covers	48	January 22, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Green Bay at Atlanta (01/22/2017) in Pro Football Quote Originally Posted by plays4all: Once again, I don't see a single one of you guys on the right picks. It's GREEN BAY AND THE UNDER....(not Atl and under, not Atl and over and Not GB and Over, lol) This would indicate that the Packers defense is able to stop the Falcons with regularity, which is a bad assumption. It would also indicate that the Packers establish an effective ground game and try running the ball 20-30 times, again bad assumption. The Packers are not built to play this way nor will they game plan this way. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	48	January 21, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Green Bay at Atlanta (01/22/2017) in Pro Football Quote Originally Posted by Toolarmy1972: thet just beat the Cowboys in dallas...and people are gonna bet falcons? wow.. smoke up then i guess...pass it this way... smoke that cash away... GO PACKERS!!!! They just torched the #2 defense in the league and you are betting that the Packers can keep up with the leagues #1 scoring offense that has the best running back tandem in the league? Good luck with your bet. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	48	January 20, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Atlanta's resume is not that great in NFL Betting Absolute garbage and I hope you lay your bankroll on such terrible logic. The Falcons were tied with the 49er's for the toughest schedule in the NFL this year, period. View Post \| View Thread	Scoop8282	24	January 20, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Green Bay at Atlanta (01/22/2017) in Pro Football If Atlanta gets up early and then has success running the ball, which they will, it will keep Rogers off of the field. The Packers secondary is not the only defensive issue they have and the Falcons possess two very different backs that lead the league in combined yards from scrimmage. The Falcons will get up early, control the clock and get a handful of stops, 38-30 Falcons View Post \| View Thread	Covers	48	January 20, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Tampa Bay at Atlanta (09/11/2016) in Pro Football This is one I would just stay away from as neither team showed anything in preseason not to mention that this is a division game. Ryan will have to show stability in his performance this year and Quinn needs to show that his defense is up to stopping any type of offense. View Post \| View Thread	Covers	10	September 02, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Play of the Month - Baltimore over Philadelphia in NFL Betting Flacco would need to show consistency against good defenses and subsequently good teams. His record to date is merely reflective of the longevity of arguably one of the best defenses in the NFL. This is not to say that Vick is a solid commodity but he has the ability to extend the play and either make a play or force it and give it up and he is playing at home. Just food for thought, we are only headed into week two be careful of the Kool-aid View Post \| View Thread	MrWonderful	31	September 15, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils: Because hes a dick I concur. See you guys later..... View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts Alright.....I got it, thanks. Not a WWE fan. View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts This thing is not over? View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts He is still a beast, and I would love to see his wife, WOW! View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts Well...sh!t 3-1 works but Lesnar is a d!ck. View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts Round 1, Lesnar gets this one View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts Quote Originally Posted by FadeOnly: how much money would it cost for you to fight either one of these guys? 100,000? 500,000? 1,000,000? more? No amount of money, sorry. View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UFC 100 in game... in Mixed Martial Arts Wow, Brock a little salty........ View Post \| View Thread	NJDevils	154	July 12, 2009 View Post \| View Thread

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