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Wisconsin is primed for a let-down after coming back from a late seven point deficit to dethrone the defending national champions. Wisconsin had matched up really well with Villanova. Wisconsin tends to beat teams when they 1) control tempo and 2) dominate the interior. So far in the tourney, Wisconsin has faced teams against which they were able to do both. Villanova also likes to play at a snails-pace. Villanova is also soft in the interior. So Wisconsin had their way in the interior, shooting 20/31 from inside the arc, and played at a tempo favorable to them, and won. Likewise in their first round against, Tech, who was playing without their forward who specializes in defensive rebounding Chris Clarke, Wisconsin had 9 more rebounds and won by 10. 

Without their center Egbunu, Florida must surely look like a team whom Wisconsin can bully in the interior and so find success against like Villanova? Both teams play great defense. Regarding offense, Florida is indeed a team that Wisconsin can easily defend in the half court. Florida's 3 point % is 116th and their 2 point % is 101st.  However, Florida's offensive efficiency is 26th. The Gators rely on getting in transition--on forcing turnovers and pushing the pace. To push the pace is key against Wisconsin. Then it does not matter that Egbunu is injured. Michigan State provided the template for this when they beat Wisconsin at home by 10 points without having a backcourt of nearly the same quality as Wisconsin. Florida is great at forcing turnovers, their defense is 32nd in the country in this category and Wisconsin has not been secure with the ball as of late. Part of the reason for their recent problems is their lack of experience in conference play playing teams who are strong in forcing turnovers. Their Big 10 opponents generally rank towards the bottom half in the NCAA at forcing turnovers.  In Wisconsin's loss against Michigan they had 15 turnovers. In their recent win against Villanova, they had 14 turnovers. Villanova, because they play at a slow tempo, did not so much punish Wisconsin for their turnovers. But Florida will. They forced 11 turnovers from Virginia (an inflated number given the low quantity of possessions in that game), who is 18th in offensive turnover %, 17 from East Tennessee State and I expect their defense to achieve a similar feat against Wisconsin. Despite Egbunu's absence, Florida still has the length in the interior to compete on the boards. The last time that they were out-rebounded was at Kentucky on February 25 and the 20 missed threes might have had something to do with the rebounding differential. I think Florida can compete with Wisconsin in terms of physicality and outclass them in terms of athleticism. I think they can get enough turnovers to ignite their transition game and generally maintain a fast pace in order to score enough on Wisconsin so that they don't miss Egbunu on the inside. Give me Florida -1.5!