HALLINGGOL

Bet turns into +8.5 after 1S

Couldn't agree more. Querry's wins are manufactured, and +6.5 is value up the gills.

Huge play for me as well.

o21.5 is a big bet for me today. 

At least one of us will hit it big. GL today! 

Rubin down from -270 to -220

maybe someone knows much more than I? Haha. BOL everyone!

Feels like 7-6, 6-2 Goffin. History suggests they play a close set, and Laj rolls over looking for, and unable to execute his "Plan B".

BOL 

FYI:

Noah Rubin has his entire frat down from NC, and family posted up today in Sota'. -270 ML, and -3.5 looks equally enticing. Even if Noah storms out and lets off the gas, Cuevas doesn't have an auto-pilot to shift momentum his way longer than 3-4 points. 

I can't fathom a TB, can't see Cuevas even sniffing a set. Take it for what it's worth, Noah is getting up for this one. Also, his "bad form" is littered with tricky opponents ahead of him who are ASCENDING. 

He's in the midst of a re-set in front of his family.  Just another stop on the tour for Gonzo.. Noah churned out nice results on Clay last yr, and he's dedicated himself to be an all surface player. 

Rubin negotiates the win in straights. Line is around -600/-700 true value, and should shift that way after it's clear Cuevas is playing a losing game and has his mind on Tennessee/Mexico. 

*Also worth noting... Rubin won Tallahassee last year (upcoming tournament). This clay swing is a BIG DEAL to him. Most importantly, he has the belief he can dispatch lesser quality opponents in these conditions. Cuevas will get fed up with the overwhelming support going the other way REAL quick.

GL fin and everyone if ya'll hop on. GL with the rest of your plays! Tallahassee

Essentially -170 on whether Novak is "up for the moment" or not. Ooozing value.

Should be less than an hour's work. 

Nerves 100%. The nice thing is, the chances are plentiful when riding these mentally strong youngsters on their ascension. This is especially prevalent on clay. Zverev, Thiem, Goffin, ect... it was not long ago these guys were albeit less refined, but MUCH more enthused. But being green, they were often in the -200/-250 range when facing "ABC gatekeepers" (no variance - they play a solved game at maximum ability). FAA is having that run now.. Soon these lines will be opening at -600/-700 against opponents in which the outcome is decided upon FAA's stick.

Hopefully someone out there made a buck. I'll go back into lurkmode. GL everyone. 

FAA is a star in his own world, playing an imaginary opponent. There is not much variance in Londero's game, and certainly nothing that FAA hasn't seen or dealt with. 

He has to be up for the moment. He has to play "well" in this spot, and it's an easy win. Then he'll put on a great show vs Zverev and ultimately lose. The trap match will be next tournament where everyone expects him to dispatch a crafty veteran, and everyone remembers that there's levels to this s8hit, and knocks everyone down a peg on him. -- Way she goes.

Smooth sailing tomorrow though! 

Auger-Aliassime (-220) vs. Londero

This isn't one to overthink. Actually it is. All the hype behind FAA, Londero beat him on CLAY last July, Londero a good clay courter, FAA hasn't had a match on clay in about 45 days... Aliassime's line is being held sturdy, it has to. Given those reasons, he can't be inflated too much here. We can all agree FAA has turned corners, and is breaking out before our eyes. He's a talent sure, but he's not other wordly. What is other worldly about him is his mentality. The sky is the limit for this kid.

But Whoa! Reasons! Londero beat him in July (Ffff that might as well been an eternity ago). Let's breakdown Londero's body of work since that match:

He posts up in Europe to play Clay in Sweden & Finland. He goes 5-2, beating who he is supposed to beat, losing to Laaksonen an Griekspoor.

Washed in USO Qual by Bagnis.

Back to Europe to Clay. He goes 5-3, no notable wins. Expected 2-0 loses to Garin, took a set from Hurkacz and still lost (who recently only started played clay that yr), and lost to Baldi. 

NOW back to South America.. his home. To sum it up ----- Tons of matches. No notable win, expected loses. Except for his great run in Cordoba! He beat Sonego, Delbonis, Pella, Jarry. Amazing tennis by him.. but make no mistake, that is in Argentina.

Since then, not a single notable win. Berlocq is only a name now, which only helped make this line possible. That, and the fact Londero was able to dispatch a Fabbiano who is completely out of form himself.

This is a banger. Whether FAA plays stone tight, and gets him with a 6-4, 6-4 "professional" win, or really puts on a show and clips him by 7-8 games. 

FAA has been prepping on clay for a minute now, and it's his preferred surface.

GL everyone.

Damn. Wish I seen this fin.

If you're ever up in the air on something, reach out bro. 

Fritz definitely has it in him to pop a clay tourney here and there. What better place for his cherry.

Harrison on the other hand. I'd be happy to give you double the odds on him for an outright. lololol

Total habit rounding off numbers from decades of hedging, and middling out.

Good sh8t bro. Details when you get a chance! 

Worst lost was 2012? CL Zenit (-500) vs. Austria Wien. Zenit got a quick red card in the 1H, and ended 0-0. 15K to win 3K --- watching Zenit pepper shots on goal all on a flippin' red card and it ending 0-0.. made me want to off myself. I was watching it with a couple spanish and russian kids at the LVH at about 7am. If they had won that match, we all would have become best friends.. instead, the whistle blew at 90' and we ripped out tickets in disgust and went our separate ways.

also, best wishes search. money ain't shit.. i'm sure your mom was the best. pm me if you need anything, or just someone to talk to brother.

They're both offensive minded. Pouille is in form, and looks to be the decider. With that being said, Bags flourishes in these winnable "underdog" matches, especially if he is playing someone who doesn't have stock "ABC defensive" tennis. 

If Pouille is hitting on all cylinders, Bags rolls over. A couple dicey service games, and Bags WILL capitalize. 

I've been capping tennis for 13 years now at every level, and this is a Top 3 play for me in terms of wager size and confidence. If Djokovic is outplayed specifically, I can happily call it a wrap on this hobby - as I clearly don't know what the fuck I am talking about, and missing something.

Surely weird things happen, and matches can flip.. but a Bo5 here at the top level, I expect variance to be a minimum. Analyzing every aspect of these guys' lives for the past few months combined with my 10+ years studying sports psychology, this just seems akin to an autistic kid cruising through a video game on an insane difficulty that no one else could come close to beating.

Maybe I am fooling myself. I can't wait to find out.

This feels so right. Tons, TONS of people on Nadal. All the OG's on Joker. No fake outs, money pouring in both sides.

Let's get that bag bro.

That's about right. Remember, that was the outright line -- potential retire, Joker loss, Joker injury, and marathon match all priced in. 

The only thing that would cause a 40-50 cent swing is the obliteration of Pouille. 

So I was planning on writing this 2-3hr breakdown. I've been watching -nothing- but tennis the past year. Outside the Khabib fight, I haven't made a sizable wager even remotely close to this.

I just don't have the time though. I leave for Vegas tomorrow afternoon. Which leads me to ask.... WHO THE FUCK is in Vegas? If anyone knows me here from a couple yrs back, or knows me from PS back in the day ---- let's link. I always come out solo, and looking to TURN UP. I'm not looking to grab a beer, I want to GET UP for this one. If we've ever talked on the phone, sat at the table, ect... and you're cut from my cloth, I beg you to come out. If interested, send me a DM on Instagram: federer666

Mini break down: Djokovic vs. The Final Boss.

Nadal is the Final Boss in a video game on Expert. An absolute machine, and nerves of steel. No less than a 6:1 favorite throughout the entire tournament, his pre-tournement adjustments made pre-season to assure a foothold on the NextGen (bigger serve, flatter approach shots to finish at net) couldn't be more of a success. The thigh looks like a non issue, but DO NOT overlook that abdominal injury. 

Novak is not a Final Boss. He's not any boss. He's Player 1, and he holds the key. Something like 38-0 in GS' as the #1 seed. If you could have him play one match anywhere in the world for all the marbles... you likely put him right here.

Djokovic has the weight of an entire nation on his back... and wouldn't want it any other way. His foundation is really cranking out the good deeds recently in Serbia. He's so in touch with the fans, as any pro-Serbians are. He's worshipped as a god, and razzed like a brother at the same time. Practically all Serbian athletes are the same -- when they are spoken to in their mother tongue and praised, they must aknowledge. He's constantly being looked into his eyes, wishing him on, being told that he gives a nation hope. 

Shoes. He's rocking the custom Asics Court FF that were made just for him. The jump he's getting on some of these balls flatfooted is downright retarded. There will be a few "Point of the Year" canidates in this match that if you breakdown.. will include a ridiculous jump. 

His son. What an X factor. His son is now starting to tell his old man to go out and win. You just don't get it unless you have children. Especially when you already excel at something. Expect something special.

I've been blindly throwing money on Djokovic AO Future Outright @ +125 for weeks leading up to the tourney. I'm going to unload in Vegas as well. Anyone recommend a place to watch? 

*so sorry for spelling errors, and lack of write up.. on phone with no ac. best of luck to everyone, all plays.*