HardCheddah

Wrong way so far. Dream -2.5

Numbers aren’t enough. Whenever I find a trend like this, I try to reason out why it could be this way in my mind. 

Sure it could be coincidence as 12 isn’t a huge sample and I stopped at 2018 where the trend actually goes the other way 3-0, but here’s my explanation for 11 of the last 12 teams in this spot failing:

The scenario of being at home after 2 straight wins in a playoff series has at least 1 road win baked in by default. This team isn’t just coming off 2 wins but are either coming off 2 road wins and returning to the comfort of their own home OR they won one on the road and another at home and now play at home again. You can see how in both situations this team might relax a bit. “We just beat them twice on their home floor. Time to crush in our arena” OR “We’ve beaten them there and here. They can’t beat us”. Pair that with the spread inflation for having home court and I think you get a pretty tough number to cover. 

This doesn’t even mention the mentality or desperation for the other team which has now lost 2 in a row (at least one at home) and looking to steal a game back. 

@Charo757

 Correct. That is what the trend says. 

With the Celtics 9 point win yesterday, home teams off exactly 2 wins in a playoff series are now 1-11 SU and ATS in the last 5 years (excluding bubble year since nobody played at home)

If either the Warriors or the Knicks force a game 7, they will be in this spot. 

FTR, this scenario came up 3 times in 2018 and the home team won all 3 games pretty comfortably.

2020

1. Jazz Game 4 First Round. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 2 point victory. Jazz -3 pre-game

2. Nuggets Game 7 First Round. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 2 point victory. Nuggets -1 pre-game

^twice in the same series again

3. Clippers Game 5 Second Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 6 point loss. Clippers -8 pre-game

4. Heat game 4 Second Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 15 point victory. Heat +5 pre-game

5. Celtics game 3 Second Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 1 point loss. Celtics +3 pre-game

6. Raptors game 5 Second Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 22 point loss. Raptors +1 pre-game

7. Heat game 3 ECF. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 11 point loss. Heat +3.5 pre-game

    **3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS... Honestly though, this is the bubble year and the point is HOME teams. Nobody got to play at home this playoff season. 

2019

1. Warriors game 5 First Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 8 point loss. Warriors -14.5 pre-game

2. Blazers game 4 First Round. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 4 point loss. Blazers -4.5 pre-game

3. 76ers game 4 Second Round. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 5 point loss. 76ers +2.5 pre-game

4. Raptors game 5 Finals. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 1 point loss. Raptors -3.5 pre-game

    **0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS (-9.5), MOV: -4.5

2019+2021+2022 ****1-10 SU, 1-10 ATS (-10.955), MOV: -6.636    

I want to look at HOME teams off 2 straight wins in a playoff series. 

First Round

Bucks vs. Heat:   HBHHH   

Celtics vs. Hawks:  CCHCHC   

76ers vs. Nets:   7777                              

Cavs vs Knicks:   KCKKK  

Nuggets vs. Twolves: NNNTN 

Grizz vs. Lakers:   LGLLGL   

Kings vs. Warriors: KKWWWKW                          

Suns vs. Clippers:   CSSSS*     Technically Suns 1st round Game 5 counts though they were off 3 straight wins in the series (not just 2).                                                 Win by 6 but fail to cover 12.5 spread by 6.5       Noted but will now focus on exactly 2 wins. 

Second Round (so far)

Nuggets vs. Suns: NNSSN   

Knicks vs. Heat:  HKHHK   

Celtics vs. 76ers:  7CC77 __     76ers are in this spot tonight.

Warriors vs. Lakers: LWLLW  

Hmmm, not a lot to go off of. To the time machine we go! 

2022

1. Raptors Game 6 First Round. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 35 point loss. Raptors +1.5 pre-game

2. Bucks Game 5 First Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 16 point victory. Bucks -12 pre-game

3. Celtics Game 6 ECF. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 8 point loss. Celtics -8.5 pre-game

    ** 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS (-15.33333), MOV: -9

2021

- Jazz off 3 straight Game 5 win and cover as 10 points favs. Like the Suns this year but they covered.

1. Lakers Game 4 First Round. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 8 point loss. Lakers -6.5 pre-game

2. Mavericks Game 3 First Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 10 point loss. Mavericks +2.5 pre-game

3. Clippers Game 5 First Round. 2 straight wins (ROAD). 5 point loss. Clippers -7.5 pre-game

^twice in the same series is wild

- Clippers off 3 straight Game 6 win and cover as 1.5 point dogs. Officially locked in to EXACTLY 2 wins.

4. Hawks Game 6 Second Round. 2 straight wins (SPLIT). 5 point loss. Hawks +3 pre-game

  **0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS (-9.125), MOV: -7

2021+2022  ***1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS (-11.786), MOV: -7.857

For the sake of time, I will no longer include the 3 straight scenario....

BOS@MIL Second Half OVER 109 (-110) - 2U

One thing is for sure. People like this ^ suck. Pure poison. Doesn't offer any insight and condemns others for things they aren't even doing. Nobody said "lock" or "guarantee" or anything like that so why the attitude? What's with the "tell both teams to call it a Miami win". Force was asked explicitly to explain his reasoning and so he did. Jesus your life must be 100% pain. I'm so sorry. 

@SuperSlapem

 First you say " And not once were the Lakers favored on the road. That should sound an alarm in your head my friend." 

...directly followed by: "Lakers had key players missing in every Suns game this season whether it was James, Caruso, Schroder, Gasol, etc."

Regardless of where my money ends up tonight, I thought I would point out how you seem to be ignoring your own information. Brains are tricky things and you clearly have yours set on one result, but that doesn't mean you are thinking clearly and the above is actually evidence to the contrary. 

BOL tonight

Boston Celtics +3 (-120) - 1u

Celtic tic tic tic boom!... and then there's heat, but not before. 

Spread/Total: 8-7 +4.33 units

ML Dogs: 0-1 -0.5 units

Total: +3.83 units

Cleveland Cavaliers +6 (-120) - 2.5u / Cleveland Cavaliers ML +180 - 0.5u

Cavaliers are often associated with honour, duty, and their mounts but let us not forget of their prowess in combat. Their dps far outmatches any magic-user in a duel. The concentration checks for Orlando alone...

Spread/Total: 8-5 +5.43 units

ML Dogs: 0-1 -0.5 units

Total: +4.93 units

Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trailblazers OVER 232.5 (-110) - 1u

Bulldoze + Trailblaze = clear path 

Edge: OVER

Spread/Total: 8-4 +6.53 units

ML Dogs: 0-1 -0.5 units

Total: +6.03 units

Charlotte Hornets +8 (-110) - 1u

H=4,0=1,R=1,N=1,E=1,T=1,S=1. Add it together for a perfect ten, none of this 76 bs...

Edge: Hornets

Golden State Warriors +5 (-120) - 1u

Warriors fight. It has always been that way. Nothing trail blazing about it.

Edge: Warriors

Spread/Total: 7-3 +7.93 units

ML Dogs: 0-1 -0.5 units

Total: +7.43 units

San Antonio Spurs +6 (-120) - 2u

Jazz is defined by its spurratic notes. 

Edge: Spurs

2021/01/02*... Keep fuckin up the dates like I can't stop talking about my ex.

Spread/Total: 7-2 +9.2 units

ML Dogs: 0-1 -0.5 units

Total: +8.7 units

Toronto Raptors -1 (-127) - 1u

Velociprators were actually most likely around the size of a domesticated turkey... or a pelican? 

Edge: Raptors

San Antonio Spurs +8 (-118) - 2.5u  /  San Antonio Spurs ML (+273) - 0.5u

I know this shit seems spurratic, but it's not. Laker? I barely even know er'.

Edge: Spurs

Dallas Mavericks +2 (-110) - 3u

Maverick's rival and eventual wingman was named ICE MAN, NOT HEAT MAN.

Edge: Mavericks