HoneyBadger21

I am an AZ fan and I would say I would be pretty surprised if we blew SF out by 17 plus.  I could see a 14 pt victory possibly since we are at home.  But SF +17 should be pretty safe assuming SF shows up and they usually do vs us.  On the off chance AZ could lose it could easily be by a fg. GL

Decent chance Brady or Russell are pulled late when its a 2 or 3 score game and then the tease is broken because SEA and NE defense have been suspect so far.  However, it isn't the worst bet you could make.  SEA should be angry and blow them out.  NE is who I'm more concerned about making it a close contest.

I feel bad for the cowboys....it appears they may be in for an injury plagued season similar to what AZ had to go through. It is very encouraging if I am a DAL fan that they were able to pull out the first 2 games...If they can take it gm by gm week by week I don't see how you can count them out to win a weak division especially if Romo and Dez return with time to spare.  GL to the Cowboys its a tough situation for sure.

2-0.

BRANDIN COOKS WHO?  Go Cards!

1-0.  Bet the Under...NO picked us apart alright..just stick to your team buddy
:
Thats 31 pts vs a weak defense, I sense improvement...N.O. really sucks on the road.  They were never beating us. 

1-0.  Bet the Under...NO picked us apart alright..just stick to your team buddy

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The assumption by many that the Rams will automatically be better than an 8-8 team this year comical.  As you mentioned Foles threw 2 ints vs us...he is an overrated QB with limited offensive weapons  He has also never played SEA's def. So it is funny to me you think the Cardinals have more to prove than the "tough" Rams. 

The question wasn't about playoffs it is how we would only go 8-8.  This is considering the fact we won games with a ton of injuries last year.  That's a big reason why all those games were so close. If you can show me how we lose 8 games I would love to debate you on that.

If your only argument for us going 8-8 is losing our defensive coordinator than I don't buy that.  Everyone has the potential to get hurt and this team knows how to overcome injuries more than most. 

If you want to say we will only win 9 games and miss the playoffs I can see that.  But until someone shows me the 8 games we would loe to finish 8-8 I see this bet as a lock.

   

I have alot of football knowledge and have no motivation on who wins this game so lets debate....

If Giants get JPP back that helps.  Also I doubt it, but they are trying to get Kam Chancellor as well.  I'm a cardinals fan so I would love this cuz it gets him off SEA.

Yes Cruz is out.  Randle is a very good backup wr.  I would say that Scandrick is DAL's best CB and whoever isn't on Bechkam can have issue with the TE Donnell or Randle.  Additionally, anyone on Beckham can have issues with Beckham obviously.

Rashad Jennings played moderately well last year and Shane Vereen is a good pickup for NYG.  I know DAL oline is awesome but I'm not sold on Randle till I see him perform for a whole game.

Giants will have trouble with DEZ as always.  IMO this should be a relatively high scoring game.  If one were to take the giants, it would be for the reason that Randle doesn't run the ball great initially and so Romo starts forcing passes that lead to INTs.  Thats how dal loses.  Or they settle for fgs cuz Randle can't score TDs in the redzone despite having a great line.

If I were to predict the score I would obviously go Cowboys...27-19.  But like I said if Romo screws up thats how they lose.

Quick edit because the line has moved since I last looked at it...we are now +110 to win over 8.5 games lmao.  So we are now an underdog to have a winning season...

Let me preface by saying Yes I am an AZ fan.  But I am also an NFL fan and I'm not stupid.  For instance, there is another future wins bet that seems like a lock.  And the Sportsbooks are giving odds to the public as if it is a lock.  I am referring to MINN total wins Over 8.5 (-250).  Min went 8-8 last year.  They have (added) AP and Mike Wallace and their defense is very underrated.  They face GB twice without Nelson, Lions without Suh and a Bears team that has gotten worse.  Barring an Injury to AP or Bridgewater they should win 9 games easily hence the (-250) line.

Now that I have hopefully proven to you that I have football knowledge and not a hopeless diehard AZ fan, can someone please explain this to me.  The line for Cardinals wins this year is 8.5..with the Over price being (-140)...

So according to Vegas AZ has about a 58% of winning 9 games 

ROFL LMAO.

Last year we went 11-5.  We started 2nd and 3rd stringers at EVERY position at some point.  Most importantly, we won games with Patrick Peterson having diabetes, Tyrann Mathieu being hurt, Palmer and Ellington out, Fitzgerald hurt. The list goes on.

Arians got coach of the year.

Now yes our schedule this year is a little tougher.  Yes we lost Bowles and Cromartie to the Jets.  But if the sky fell and we got hurt again and our defense wasn't as good I still put our chances of winning 9 games at somewhere close to 90%.  Am I crazy?

Consider also that one of our 5 losses last year was to SF when we started a 3rd string QB.  I fully expect us to sweep SF this year.

 The line for our wins should be at 9 Minimum...I think anyone who has a solid understanding of football should see this and take advantage of it..please someone tell me what I'm missing here.

Beat the bookies cuz apparently the hate the Cardinals or not enough of the public sees what an amazing bet this is. 

 

I have a solid football mind and I don't even feel cocky saying that.  I have a great knowledge of players on every team and also crushed Fantasy Football.  I would love to debate anyone on these picks.

Patriots HT/FT -140
Packers HT/FT -140

I think both of those are self-explanatory.  Until proven otherwise PITT and CHI Def should project to be as horrible as last year.  Brady is determined and Rodgers kills the Bears.  I figure at the very worst its probably close to 90% you win one of these.  So worst case is you take a small loss.  But I think the odds should be in the -200 region for both especially NE...PITT is at NE with no Leveon Bell.


To win:

  Parlay

-200 MIA over WAS
-150 NYJ over CLE  

Everyone knows the situation in WAS is one of chaos.  Cousins faces a solid def with the addition of Suh...good luck.  Grimes can handle Desean for the most part.  Tannehill has steadily improved every year and has weapons all around him.  Considering Tannehill hasn't been bad on the road and WAS hasn't been good at home, the homefield advantage really doesn't mean much.  At first -200 seems large but I think it should be closer to -275 minimum.

NYJ have a new def coach (Bowles) and added Revis and Cromartie.  Being an AZ fan I know what Bowles can do and its legit. CLE simply doesn't have enough weapons to move the ball on this imo top 5 defense.  The only issue is if Fitzpatrick gives the games away but  with Marshall and Decker I think he will be fine despite the presence of Haden.  Much has been made of the Jets and Geno but they will still beat the Browns at home.

Gambles of the Week:

   OAK at home +172...Cincy looked horrible in the preseason.  Dalton can be a an absolute joke sometimes.  Carr can play decent and Amari Cooper ould be a beast...they have a clear shot here at home but I wouldn't bank on it just cuz CIN DEF is solid and OAK is still very young...but worth a flier.

DET +130 at SD:  If Megatron plays like himself SD will have issues defending him and Tate.  Lions def remains solid and Gordon hasn't looked great.  This game could go either way but my gut says DET will win.

KC -105 at HOU:  If JJ Watt doesn't score I don't know if HOU can score more than 1 TD.  KC def is finally healthy and they are legit.  Hoyer is the HOU QB and Foster is out enough said.  KC should be a clear favorite here.  They added Maclin and Charles is healthy.  Just more talent on offense compared to HOUs. KC should win and should be a higher favorite.


Exact Game Result: STL to beat SEA by 1-3 PTS +900

Foles I think is overrated and has very few weapons on offense.  However, Rams dline vs SEA oline is the key battle here.  This is a top 3 dline vs what currently looks like a horrible oline.  If Rams def can keep it close Foles won't have to do much.  STL won against SEA in STL by 3 last year.  If they do win on Sunday it won't be my much. 
 

The other good thing with Adjusted run parlays is they rarely change much as they aren't usually released till the day of the games and you get to see the lineups etc. before you place the bet.  Just another way to minimize the risk.

Another good thing to look at for these is when two teams are basically even money.  I'm not saying I would do this bet but tomorrow the cubs are at the white sox.  Cubs are -115 and Sox are -105...Samardizja +2.5? combined with Price +1.5...just a thought.  I have to research the white sox cubs matchup more thought buts thats another way to approach it.

I've just been experimenting recently with ways to increase my win rate without the huge swings.  They say I believe that you need something like 53% to make a profit.  Enter Adjusted run lines parlays.  It's pretty pointless to do just one adjusted run line bet because of how high the juice usually is.  However, if you find an underdog you expect to win or a favorite you believe isn't being given enough credit, why not combine them into one safer bet?  We all have the experience of thinking we know an underdog will win or a favorite can't lose only to see them lose by 1 or 2 runs and us feeling like shit.  I think I can make Adjusted run line parlays with a 60% win rate minimum.  Here are some examples from my 2/2 day.

Just a trend I've noticed all year is that the Pirates and Nationals are constantly huge favorites when the Pirates are at home and Scherzer pitches.  This is despite the fact that Scherzer is 9-7 and while the Pirates have been streaking every game they play is a sweat cuz they cant score to save their lives.  Thankfully for them last series SD can score either but they lost to STL today 4-1 and were shut down by Carlos Martinez...a very good but not amazing pitcher.  Look at the Nationals last game with Scherzer on the mound and while he got roughed up a bit by CIN they managed 0 runs vs Cueto at home.  I know Cueto had something to play for but come on WAS...both these teams are so overrated cuz of the lack of run support they give their pitchers and it will be their undoing in the playoffs.

At least the public perception of the Blue Jays constantly being favorites can be somewhat justified cuz their offense can go off any given day.  PIT or WAS offense going off is like 6 runs a gm haha.

venting over...I'd love to see how many games PITT/WAS combined have lost when they are -120 to -150 favorites.  Games where they aren't playing shit teams but their offenses still get more credit than it should.

Just something to think about...

Pujols would be a nice surprise although his age scares me..
but at 100/1 that is looking like a hell of a bet now.  I agree Frazier has a better shot at runner up than Harper considering the Nationals can win without him hitting home runs...wheras Stanton and Frazier are like half or more of their teams total offense lol.

I actually already bet on him about 2 weeks ago at +200 as well but its never too late to join the bandwagon

More of a fun betting topic here.  sportsbook.ag is offering -150 for Stanton to win the HR Crown...he currently leads Pujols 27-24...is it too early to consider placing a bet?

These seem like reasonable odds to me but obviously a reflex to seeing him crush the ball every other game...yet if he doesn't get hurt do we see Frazier Pujols or Harper catching him?

I've been a lurker and learned a lot lately so now I want to share my picks. 

FYI: Great source for team totals especially vs RHP or LHP Home/Away as well as Monthly Trends

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?season=2015&category=BATTING&group=1&sort=13&time=0&pos=0&team=1&qual=1&sortOrder=0&splitType=42

Blue Jays -115

TOR is almost avg 6 runs per game on the road...facing converted reliever Andriese who has a 4.50 ERA lifetime vs them in 3 appearances.  Rays are only avg about 3.5 runs per gm scored in June so that should help the shaky Hutchinson a bit who gets the most run support of any P in the league.  Even the jays dreadful bullpen can't blow this one...TOR 6-4...I guess OVER 8 isnt a bad play as well.

Cubs +157

Kershaw has given up as many hrs this yr already compared to all of last yr.  Dodgers are one of the worst teams vs lefties and are 26th in runs scored on the road.  Couple this with the fact that Cubs are 3rd in batting avg vs LHP make this one almost a lock.  Really think Kershaw gets roughed up in this one...Cubs 5-3

Sleeper: Phillies +250...really can't go wrong with that line.  PHI only avg about 3 runs on the road and NYY scores about 5.5 at home.  The hope therefore is that PHI SP Correia who has only allowed 2 ER in 10.2 innings can pitch a great game.  Philly already screwed everyone yesterday by beating a STL ace soundly with a minor leaguer so the possibility is already there.  Being on the road makes it tougher but that line is hard to pass up. 

GL all.