HoopsAndBases

Twins -135

Marlins -125

Reds -152

Mets -128

Rays -147

Braves +106

Brewers +106

Jays/Rangers over 9.5 -110

By far my biggest card of this young season and a lot of juice today Good day yesterday, lets do it again

YTD: 6-7 -0.88 units

tin, dcgmt

dcgmt

Tin

Brewers +101

Reds -145

Rays -105

Angels -115

Twins/Tigers o8.5 -120

Mostly juice today

YTD: 3-5 -1.83 units

D-Town

Cover34

-- Also pretty insane some of the prices you can get on the "legal" books as opposed to offshore. Offshore has more competitive pricing (less juice) but often times you can find some stale lines

For example Rays/Marlins under 7.5 -110 at BetMGM while the under 7.5 is at -126 on BetOnline. Nice to have a lot of options

White Sox +104

Diamondbacks +195

Red Sox -1.5 +106

Marlins -110

Rays/Marlins under 7.5 -110

2-1 +1.33 units ytd

Magic/Bucks under 225.5 -110 $2200 to win $2000

My 1 unit bets are $500. This is 4 unit. 3 is usually my max but I'm pushing the envelope on this bet and here's why:

-My model shows this play as profitable. Even if I personally have reasons it's a good bet but my model shows differently than I will pass on the game (except in certain situations like say if the Lakers somehow lose the first 2 against portland I'd unload on the Lakers ML in game 3)

-Obviously the Bucks have the best defense in the NBA that's no secret (no offense Raptors)

-Orlando defense is MUCH better than people realize. They're also really good at defensive rebounding.

-Combine those things with Orlando's inept offense AND the likelihood of a blowout and we have an insane edge on this bet. The fact this total is higher than the thunder/Rockets total is fucking hilarious

-This is already a great bet for the regular season. It becomes a nuclear bomb of a bet in the playoffs when intensity is upped a couple notches

The one bad thing (and it is indeed bad as this is very important) is Milwaukee's pace of play. I expect Orlando's snail of a pace to neutralize it enough as well as the other factors listed above and just the slight hesitation of players in the playoffs when things go even slightly bad. Also if you look at just the bubble play the Bucks offense isn't quite there yet. They'll get there but that's not a switch you can just turn on. (Miami/Indy is absolutely fucked in the 2nd round don't get it twisted)

Pace of play is honestly more important than everything else listed but you actually have to know how to apply it which is where I excel at. Most people just look at the numbers which is honestly meaningless if you don't know how they factor into the matchup

I usually don't sweat results too much but a 4 (!) unit play has the juices going a little bit. I won't give write ups very often as I normally just work off of my model but I'm not doing anything today and I was in the mood.

Plays my model show as profitable for Wednesday:

White Sox -114 *1u*

Braves -121 *1u*

Dodgers -124 *1u*

Athletics -143 *1u*

Brewers -145 *1u*

Padres -172 *2u*

Dodgers/Astros over 10 -105 *2u*

Mariners/Angels over 9 -115 *1u*

Cubs/Reds under 9.5 -115 *2u*

Red Sox/Mets F5 under 4 -110 *2u*

Can't remember a day with this many favorites I've played without a single dog... Hopefully dogs aren't barking tonight

Four 2 unit plays

Yesterday: 5-7 -0.55 units

Overall: 28-21-1 +3.10 units (9-4 +7.90 units on 2 unit plays)

Would like to start hitting some 1 unit plays too....

Another busy day for me. Won't be on until later tonight or tomorrow most likely. Let's get back to winning

softball: Yeah I've had sweeps and reverse sweeps. Had a 10-0 was the biggest. And then on days when there's only like 5 plays I've had some 0-5s and 5-0s etc

White Sox game 1 +130 *1u*

White Sox game 2 +108

Braves +115 *1u*

Dodgers -126 *2u*

Nationals -136 *1u*

Padres -138 *1u*

Twins -145 *2u*

Athletics -157 *1u*

Brewers -163 *1u*

Angels -165 *1u*

Cubs/Reds over 10 -112 *1u*

5-7 -0.55 units.

Late Brewers loss made it a losing day.

28-21-1 +3.10 units overall

Plays my model have as profitable for Tuesday:

White Sox game 1 +130 *1u*

White Sox game 2 +108

Braves +115 *1u*

Dodgers -126 *2u*

Nationals -136 *1u*

Padres -138 *1u*

Twins -145 *2u*

Athletics -157 *1u*

Brewers -163 *1u*

Angels -165 *1u*

Cubs/Reds over 10 -112 *1u*

The grind continues. Won't be back online until tomorrow -- hopefully I'm recapping a good day

Yesterday: 2-4 -2.15 units

Overall: 23-14-1 +3.65 units

Braves +125 *1u*

White Sox +117 *1u*

Diamondbacks +106 *1u*

Brewers -167 *1u*

Braves/Rays under 8.5 -110 *1u*

Cubs/Reds over 10 -105 *1u*

Blue Jays/Nationals over 10.5 -105 *1u*

Today: 2-4 -2.15 units

Overall: 23-14-1 +3.65 units

Not very often do you feel happy about a losing day but there was a real chance of finding the reverse sweep 0-6 or at the least 1-5 with the Brewers having been a decently high juice

Overall 38 picks in to the year and to the novice +3.65 units might not look like much but we're almost on a 7 unit/week pace which would obviously end up being a great year (Without doing that bullshit 5 unit 10 unit shit people do to inflate their records to look cooler)

Could've been way worse and even if it would've been I'm still gonna trust my numbers like I have been for years and move on to the next day 

This is not a play from my model just a play from me that I like as I'm doing some research. So win or lose it will not count towards my record. FYI I bet smaller on these prop bets than my model plays 

Javier Baez to hit a home run +325

Wouldn't bet too much on any home run props that I ever post. Maybe some lunch money?

unclebenelli

softballmaniac GLGL

LoserNation

dcgmt: Thanks!

unclebenelli: Yes, I can adjust the starting lineups when needed. Same way as doing it with changing the starting pitcher every day

nicky