iamhuge

UCLA wins outright and Mississippi State covers.   3-0 on the week.  23-20 YTD ATS 53%

See you next week!

Wow..Nebraska can't defend the pass...at all.

UCLA looking good 

 Ucla +6.5  NEBRASKA

It’s really easy to overlook UCLA in this contest, because of their 2-5 record but look at the teams they have lost to:  Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Penn St and a close one to Minnesota.  Three of those five losses are to teams that are still undefeated.  UCLA had a bye week last week and has found its offense, putting up a lot of points in its victory over Rutgers the last time they suited up.  That’s why I’m loving getting the points here. 

Nebraska has an offense problem and is averaging less than 13 points per game in their last three contests.  Their QB loves to get sacked, having hit the dirt 17 times already this season and he has tossed 4 picks in the last 2 games. Also, they can’t run the ball, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.  UCLA does a very good job at stopping the run.  In order to cover this spread, they will need to score 28 points and its doubtful that they can do this. 

Nebraska will be without defensive back Hartzog, who injured his hamstring in the fourth quarter of last week's game.  UCLA QB Garbers completes 64% of his passes so look for him to exploit the JV backup.  Nebraska's passing defense is their weakest link, and they have been picked apart all season by teams with efficient passing attacks.   This is going to be a low scoring game, which makes covering the spread by the favorite even more difficult.  I’ll take the points anytime in a close contest.  On the underdog Bruins.

MISSISSIPPI STATE -18 umass

Why are they even playing this game?  We need more COWBELL!  The Massholes have to get on a plane and land in Starkville and they will be looking at each other and going WTF??   It doesn’t matter what Umass thinks.  They are ranked 133 out of 134 FBS teams.  They have yet to win an FBS contest.  They lost to Buffalo by 31 points and lost to Missouri by 42 points.  They are averaging less than 14 points per game against FBS competition.

The Bulldogs, however, have also not won an FBS game this year.  This season is a lost cause, no doubt.  They are an SEC embarrassment.  But this is a home game, and a game they are clearly going to win.  But will they cover?  It’s hard to say, since they haven’t won an FBS game yet.  However, the computers think this will be a cakewalk.  How so?

Mississippi State beat Eastern Kentucky in week 1 by the score of 56-7.  The genius Jeff Sagarin has UMASS and EKU ranked virtually identical.  So if MSU is 49 points better than EKU, that’s quite a cushion over an 18 point spread over a team ranked identical to EKU.  That’s not good news for the Minutemen.  At the end of the day, there is a huge differential in talent.  UMass is 113th in total offense and 122nd in scoring offense. UMass is also 104th in scoring defense.  The Bulldogs will be loose and playing with confidence which should translate to points…points that UMass will be unable to match. Loving the home favorites against a very very bad football team.

Took them a little while but Tulane easily covers.  1-0 on the week.  

tulane -16.5 CHARLOTTE

On vacation and I forgot the game was tonight.  Charlotte big step up in competition.  3 of their 5 losses have been by more than 16.5 points and all 3 of these losses were to teams not as good as Tulane (Navy, UNC and JMU).  Charlotte loses because their defense sucks, giving up 34.5 points per game.  Tulane is loaded on offense, averaging 40.5 points per game and when they play bad teams, they run up the score.  QB Mensah is a phenom and is having a great season, completing more than 64% of his passes for 14 TD's and only 3 interceptions.  Tulane can also pound the rock whenever they want, to take control of this game and close out Charlotte - they get 5.0 yards per carry.

The Green Wave will have this spread covered by halftime.  I'm on the road favorite tonight

Looks like my picks this season are going nowhere fast...strap in for week 10..here are my picks... home team in caps....selection on the left hand side:

MISSISSIPPI STATE -18 umass

Ucla +6.5  NEBRASKA

tulane -16.5 CHARLOTTE

which ones do you like?

Wisconsin can’t score.  1-3 on the week.   Loser week. 

Utah gaks against Houston....loses outright.  1-2 on the week

oops...was out to dinner and forgot to post my SMU analysis.  Go Mustangs!

Ole Miss decides not to score today. 1-1 on the week 

The Hoosiers cover.  1-0 on the week 

Ole Siss looking like a bust.  Kiffin drives me nuts

WISCONSIN +7 penn state

 Wisconsin is a very good football team and they are playing their best football right now.  What’s that, they are getting a touchdown at home?  At Camp Randall?  Jump around?  Wow.  How good must Penn State be to be giving a touchdown on a night road game?  Well, the Nittany Lions are undefeated BUT they are facing their toughest opponent to date in the Badgers.  Wisconsin’s defense has really tightened up, allowing only 16 points total in their last 3 games.   Their pass defense is ranked tenth in the country and the Badgers have been getting magnificent play out of their secondary.  What’s going to be the difference maker?  Penn State has been rattled with controversy regarding two players who are in a heap of trouble.  On top of this major distraction is that this is a trap game.  That’s right, next week Penn State hosts Ohio State. 

Wisconsin is on a Somari roll.  They’ve won their last three matchups by a combined 117-16 which has to have bolstered the confidence of Bucky.  It’s true, as Kurt Angle would say, that Penn State is undefeated BUT Strength of Schedule is a marginal 70th in the country, and their best win was an OT squeaker against a meh USC team.  I like the fact that both teams will try to run the ball, limiting the total number of possessions.  If Wisconsin can hold their own in the Red Zone on defense and hold Penn State to field goals, this will be a difficult game for PSU to cover on the road in hostile environment.  Notably, the Lions are pretty nicked up, with 11 players listed as questionable.  The real difference here will be that Wisconsin is home and those points look real big right now.

what happened to Rutgers defense?

utah – 4 HOUSTON

My goodness…for years, Cougar High was begging to get into the Big 12 and show the big boys what they could do.  But alas, that was back in the day of Andre Ware and David Klingler.  Not so much for Donovan Smith, who this season has thrown 8 interceptions and only 4 TDs.  He’s also really good at getting sacked.  Well, they got their wish and they are in the Big 12.    The problem is, they don’t know how to move the ball.  Houston averages 13.7 points (133rd) and 302.0 total yards (122nd), including 166.6 passing yards (123rd) and 135.4 rushing yards (88th).    Despite the fact that Utah has been struggling on offense as well, the Utes are playing crazy good defense – only letting up 16.4 points per game.  So the evidence is clear that Houston is not going to score more than one touchdown on Saturday night.  So even if they manage 10 points, all Utah needs is 15 points to cover this one.  Houston has coughed up more than this total in 5 of their 6 contests.

Other than Utah State, the Cougs will be the worst FBS team that Utah has faced this season.  The Utes are on the road here, but they do run the ball well, with their lead horse getting 6.3 yards per carry against the Cougars who rank 121 in explosive plays allowed against the run.  Houston is ranked 132 in red zone scoring percentage…which means they couldn’t find the end zone even using Braille and a guide dog.    Houston’s season is essentially over, but Utah – after losing 3 straight – has a lot to play for and needs this one badly to get into the win column.  This is going to be a low scoring game but Utah likes to punch you in the mouth.  This will be bloody, but the road team will cover and then go home to multiple wives or girlfriends or whatever it is they do in Utah.

INDIANA -6.5 washington

Does anyone remember the hit song by R Dean Taylor called “Indiana Wants Me”.  It went something like this ==> Indiana wants me…no I can’t go back there…Well, when it comes to betting football, Indiana does want me…and you better believe I’m going back there.  After a cakewalk cover against Nebraska last week, there is no way I am getting off the Hoosier train right now.  Indiana is moving up the charts…and it’s not a hit song.  They are undefeated and ranked number 13 right now.  QB Kurtis Rourke is playing an insane level of football right now.  But hold your horses…aw shucks.  He is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and just this week ESPN announced that Gameday will be broadcasting from Bloomington.  It’s really a sad situation because the dude was seriously being considered for the Heisman.  Have no fear. Hoosier fans.  Backup Tayven Jackson, who started five games for Indiana in 2023, replaced Rourke for the second half last week and threw for 91 yards and two touchdowns on 7-of-8 passing while leading four touchdown drives.  He'll be a more than capable game manager.  With this skinny spread, they don’t need much offense.  What’s more, it’s the Indiana defense that is the reason the Hoosiers are undefeated.  They are giving up only 13.7 points per game and 4 of their 7 wins have been against Big 10 teams. 

Truth be told, Washington will be the best team that Indiana has faced this year.  But the Huskies are going the wrong way in a hurry.  After playing in the Natty last year, this team has lost to Rutgers and Wazoo and got blown out by Iowa.  They are only 2-3 in their last 5 games and coming across the country again for a noon kickoff in front of a Game Day crowd will not be a friendly welcome for the Huskies.  Washington has yet to win a game on the road this year.   Their offense has not been able to generate points consistently, averaging only 21 points per game against Big 10 competition.  Indiana has covered the spread for six consecutive games since narrowly failing to cover in their season-opener against FIU and the public is just not ready to give them the respect they deserve.

Despite Rourke’s heroics, Indiana is a run heavy team, preferring to run the ball 57% of the time and they are making it pay off, going for 5.3 yards per carry.  On the other hand, only three Big Ten teams have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Huskies this year.  While Indiana would love to have Rourke under center, Jackson can do what Rourke doesn’t do, namely run the ball…which will give Washington even more fits.   Enough said…the better team wins and covers.

OLE MISS -19.5 oklahoma

Yes…this line is insane.  It’s crazy to be giving Oklahoma this many points.  But, you have to hear this out.  Oklahoma is no longer Oklahoma.  They are Joklahoma….and their offense is so bad, it’s not even funny.  In the last 4 games, they have averaged only 13 points per game and on Saturday they will be on the road against the best defense in the country.   That’s right, Ole Siss plays defense like you wouldn’t believe.  The Sooners don’t have a quarterback, and they can’t run the ball even against bad defenses, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry.  The Rebels have only given up 10.6 points per game all season and their opponents have only mustered 1.9 yards per rushing attempt.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road?  You lose…that’s what happens. 

The Sooners are going to punt the ball a million times in this game and Ole Siss will have lots of possessions to put up points and cover this ungodly spread.  Ole Miss plays the up tempo offense with one of the fastest rates in the country.   In their last two games, the Sooners have lost by 31 points to Texas and 26 points to South Carolina.  File note:  The Rebels beat South Carolina by 26 in Columbia.  The Sooners have scored a combined 12 points in their last two games.   Ole Miss is coming off of a bye week and is still fuming from their OT loss to LSU.  Believe it or not, their offense is generating 560 yards per game….so their point totals just don’t measure up to how they’ve been moving the ball.  No doubt Kiffin will fix this over the bye week. 

The Oklahoma offense is an indescribable dumpster fire.  Against the Gamecocks, Oklahoma witched QB’s from Michael Hawkins Jr. to Jackson Arnold after the Sooners started the game with three straight turnovers.  The Sooners have made a change at offensive coordinator on Sunday night, moving on from Seth Littrell and promoting Joe Jon Finley to play caller and Kevin Johns to co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.  They will no longer be known as the Sooners.  Now they are the Laters.    How this can be good for their offense, I have no idea.  The Sooners allow eight tackles for loss per game, which is a drive killer beyond compare.   Ole Miss team defense averages 9.6 TFL’s per game. Ole Miss is still fighting for an at-large playoff bid and this will be a very meaningful home game in Oxford.  It will be mail it in time for the Sooners and Ole Miss will have no mercy, particularly on defense, so watch them pile up the points every time they get the ball back.  Going with the home chalk here.

INDIANA -6.5 washington

Does anyone remember the hit song by R Dean Taylor called “Indiana Wants Me”.  It went something like this ==> Indiana wants me…no I can’t go back there…Well, when it comes to betting football, Indiana does want me…and you better believe I’m going back there.  After a cakewalk cover against Nebraska last week, there is no way I am getting off the Hoosier train right now.  Indiana is moving up the charts…and it’s not a hit song.  They are undefeated and ranked number 13 right now.  QB Kurtis Rourke is playing an insane level of football right now.  But hold your horses…aw shucks.  He is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and just this week ESPN announced that Gameday will be broadcasting from Bloomington.  It’s really a sad situation because the dude was seriously being considered for the Heisman.  Have no fear. Hoosier fans.  Backup Tayven Jackson, who started five games for Indiana in 2023, replaced Rourke for the second half last week and threw for 91 yards and two touchdowns on 7-of-8 passing while leading four touchdown drives.  He'll be a more than capable game manager.  With this skinny spread, they don’t need much offense.  What’s more, it’s the Indiana defense that is the reason the Hoosiers are undefeated.  They are giving up only 13.7 points per game and 4 of their 7 wins have been against Big 10 teams. 

Truth be told, Washington will be the best team that Indiana has faced this year.  But the Huskies are going the wrong way in a hurry.  After playing in the Natty last year, this team has lost to Rutgers and Wazoo and got blown out by Iowa.  They are only 2-3 in their last 5 games and coming across the country again for a noon kickoff in front of a Game Day crowd will not be a friendly welcome for the Huskies.  Washington has yet to win a game on the road this year.   Their offense has not been able to generate points consistently, averaging only 21 points per game against Big 10 competition.  Indiana has covered the spread for six consecutive games since narrowly failing to cover in their season-opener against FIU and the public is just not ready to give them the respect they deserve.

Despite Rourke’s heroics, Indiana is a run heavy team, preferring to run the ball 57% of the time and they are making it pay off, going for 5.3 yards per carry.  On the other hand, only three Big Ten teams have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Huskies this year.  While Indiana would love to have Rourke under center, Jackson can do what Rourke doesn’t do, namely run the ball…which will give Washington even more fits.   Enough said…the better team wins and covers.