iamhuge

Sorry I came down with a stomach bug and forgot to do my write ups.  My picks sucked anyway 

Here are my picks for the week - picks on the left, home team in CAPS:

utah +11.5  COLORADO

Liberty -14.5 UMASS

oregon state -3.5 AIR FORCE

which ones do you like?  Best of luck to all.

BYU Wins but does not cover...1-2 on the week.  24-22 YTD ATS 52%

New Mexico State gets the late game back door cover...doh.  1-1 on the week.

byu -3.5 UTAH

They call this rivalry game the Holy War, but this year they should call it – Holy Shit, Utah’s offense sucks.  Normally a home game at night in Utah makes it very difficult for the road team to succeed but Utah has already had a night game this season and their fans don’t drink and they lost.  I expect more of the same this week when the Cougars roll into town and I’m not talking about 40 year old women hunting Utah frat boys.

BYU is undefeated and is a legit top 10 team while Utah is way down at around 50.  BYU has already slayed SMU, K State, Baylor and UCF.  All of these teams are better than Utah.  The Cougs look like a complete team, averaging 36 points per game on offense and giving up only 19 points per game on defense.  If you look at the 3 common opponents that BYU and Utah have played against (Baylor, Arizona and Ok St) BYU of course is 3-0 with an average victory margin of 38-27.  Utah, facing the same opponents, is 2-1 and lost to Arizona.  Utah scored only 10 points against the Wildcats whereas BYU lit them up for 41 points.  Against all 3 teams Utah’s average score was 18-18.  So on paper it looks like BYU Is 11 points better than the Utes.  BYU is a run heavy team, averaging 4.7 yards per carry but they are also efficient throwing the ball, completing 60% of their throws for 18 TDs and only 7 interceptions. On the other hand, Utah is just not getting it done on offense, averaging only 22.8 points per game.  Interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian seems to be too consumed with whether he’s going to have grape leaves or Lamachjun for dinner and his play calling has been ass. Utah has been running an up temp offense, which is idiotic since they don’t get first downs.  The defense barely has time to sit down on the bench and they have to get up again. 

BYU is hyper focused on making the CFP and Utah is just a stepping stone without Cam Rising under center.  This spread isn’t giving BYU the respect they deserve.  Utah’s home field advantage hasn’t been there, losing at home to TCU and Arizona the last 2 times they were home.  BYU is the much better team and the fact that Utah’s offense is so pedestrian means minimizes the likelihood that they spring big plays to keep the game close.  BYU is the much better team and is improving weekly.  Gee whiz they have been impressive all season.  Give me the road favorite Cougars.

Columbia vs. Harvard today for the Ivy League lead...last time Columbia won the title was in 1961

western kentucky -18.5 NEW MEXICO STATE

Betting against New Mexico State is better than buying Bitcoins.  This team sucks.  That’s a given.  People love Western Kentucky because they think of Bailey Zappe throwing for a million touchdowns, but this WKU team is kind of different.  They actually run the ball more often than they pass it.  They actually play very good defense, only giving up 14.5 points per game this season in the 6 games that they’ve won.  Looking at comparable games that WKU has played, they have played 3 other ass teams this season (UTEP, MTSU and Kennesaw) and they won these games by the average score of 41- 17, so it looks like they have the capability of covering against this sad sack Aggie team.  In direct head to head, WKU beat Sam Houston 31-14 and Sam Houston beat New Mexico State by the score of 31-11.  That makes WKU 37 points better than new Mexico State

What makes NMSU so bad?  For starters, they are 1-6 against FBS teams.  WKU will be the best team they have played all season and in 4 of their 6 losses, New Mexico State lost by more than the 18.5 point spread.  The math does not add up for the Aggies.

The Aggies are ranked number 125 in total defense, giving up 455 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.  They are also yielding 216 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry.  At the end of the day, they don’t stop anybody.  With WKU’s balanced offense, the Aggies will be guessing how to stop them.  With the Hilltopper’s QB, Caden Veltkamp completing 70% of his passes with 17 TD’s and only 5 interceptions, one would expect the Aggies pass defense will become Shredded Wheat.  The Hilltoppers enter this contest 26th in the nation with 278.8 yards per game through the air.  When New Mexico State has the ball, the Aggies are 132nd in the nation in passing.  That’s not good for them since  it’s likely they will be playing from behind the whole game.  What sucks for NMSU is QB Parker Awad is 40 of 93 passing for 518 yards.  That’s right, he can’t throw.  The Aggies threw for a grand total of 30 yards last week against FIU.  They are 104th in third-down conversions, converting 33.6% of their attempts.  What’s worse?  Of the 4 quarterbacks they have, New Mexico State doesn’t know which one will be playing. 

This game has all of the makings of a blowout.  Taking the Toppers on the road.

@DrGame

 of course

Easy Peasy night in Greenville.  ECU covers.  1-0 on the week. 

EAST CAROLINA -7.5 florida Atlantic

Tonight the Pirates of East Carolina, with their high powered offense, are hosting florida Atlantic.  I’m on the Pirates because, despite being only 4-4, they know how to put up points and they are home at night…always good combos for covering spreads.  Averaging 30.4 points per game, ECU will score on anyone – especially teams that suck.  Last week they scored 56 on the Temple Owls.  Tonight against another Owl team, they will look to do the same. In their last 4 FBS contests, Florida Atlantic has given up 43 points per game.

The Pirate offense has been pretty balanced all season, throwing the ball 51% of the time behind new QB Houser (they made the switch because their other QB kept throwing interceptions) and they play at a very high pace, so look for them to wear out an already bad FAU defense – which has one of their cornerbacks questionable with a foot injury.  ECU is ranked #33 in passing offense…that’s pretty good.    The real problem with FAU is their pass rush, as they barely average over 1 sack per game.   Tonight’s weather will be clear with no wind…perfect for passing.   It looks like FAU is struggling stopping the run as well.  South Florida ran for 319 yards against them last week.

FAU likes to run the ball, but ECU plays good run defense, holding opponents to 3.7 yards per carry.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road during a night game?  You lose..that’s what happens.  Three of FAU’s last four losses against FBS competition have all been decided by at least 14 points. The Owls have lost all four of their conference games by an average of 15.5 points.

ECU is coming off of a bye week with their new head coach.  FAU is the weakest FBS team that ECU has seen all season, so it is really hard to go against the Pirates here in a Thursday home night game.    Both teams played UTSA with ECU winning their game by 10 points while FAU lost to the Roadrunners by 14 points.  Considering all of this, the 7.5 point spread does not look too daunting so I’m going with the home Pirates.

EAST CAROLINA -7.5 florida Atlantic

Tonight the Pirates of East Carolina, with their high powered offense, are hosting florida Atlantic.  I’m on the Pirates because, despite being only 4-4, they know how to put up points and they are home at night…always good combos for covering spreads.  Averaging 30.4 points per game, ECU will score on anyone – especially teams that suck.  Last week they scored 56 on the Temple Owls.  Tonight against another Owl team, they will look to do the same. In their last 4 FBS contests, Florida Atlantic has given up 43 points per game.

The Pirate offense has been pretty balanced all season, throwing the ball 51% of the time behind new QB Houser (they made the switch because their other QB kept throwing interceptions) and they play at a very high pace, so look for them to wear out an already bad FAU defense – which has one of their cornerbacks questionable with a foot injury.  ECU is ranked #33 in passing offense…that’s pretty good.    The real problem with FAU is their pass rush, as they barely average over 1 sack per game.   Tonight’s weather will be clear with no wind…perfect for passing.   It looks like FAU is struggling stopping the run as well.  South Florida ran for 319 yards against them last week.

FAU likes to run the ball, but ECU plays good run defense, holding opponents to 3.7 yards per carry.  You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road during a night game?  You lose..that’s what happens.  Three of FAU’s last four losses against FBS competition have all been decided by at least 14 points. The Owls have lost all four of their conference games by an average of 15.5 points.

ECU is coming off of a bye week with their new head coach.  FAU is the weakest FBS team that ECU has seen all season, so it is really hard to go against the Pirates here in a Thursday home night game.    Both teams played UTSA with ECU winning their game by 10 points while FAU lost to the Roadrunners by 14 points.  Considering all of this, the 7.5 point spread does not look too daunting so I’m going with the home Pirates.

Here are my picks for the week HOME TEAM in CAPS...my picks on the left hand side....analysis to follow:

EAST CAROLINA -7.5 florida atlantic

western kentucky -18.5 NEW MEXICO STATE

byu -3.5 UTAH

which ones do you like?

UCLA wins outright and Mississippi State covers.   3-0 on the week.  23-20 YTD ATS 53%

See you next week!

Wow..Nebraska can't defend the pass...at all.

UCLA looking good 

 Ucla +6.5  NEBRASKA

It’s really easy to overlook UCLA in this contest, because of their 2-5 record but look at the teams they have lost to:  Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Penn St and a close one to Minnesota.  Three of those five losses are to teams that are still undefeated.  UCLA had a bye week last week and has found its offense, putting up a lot of points in its victory over Rutgers the last time they suited up.  That’s why I’m loving getting the points here. 

Nebraska has an offense problem and is averaging less than 13 points per game in their last three contests.  Their QB loves to get sacked, having hit the dirt 17 times already this season and he has tossed 4 picks in the last 2 games. Also, they can’t run the ball, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.  UCLA does a very good job at stopping the run.  In order to cover this spread, they will need to score 28 points and its doubtful that they can do this. 

Nebraska will be without defensive back Hartzog, who injured his hamstring in the fourth quarter of last week's game.  UCLA QB Garbers completes 64% of his passes so look for him to exploit the JV backup.  Nebraska's passing defense is their weakest link, and they have been picked apart all season by teams with efficient passing attacks.   This is going to be a low scoring game, which makes covering the spread by the favorite even more difficult.  I’ll take the points anytime in a close contest.  On the underdog Bruins.

MISSISSIPPI STATE -18 umass

Why are they even playing this game?  We need more COWBELL!  The Massholes have to get on a plane and land in Starkville and they will be looking at each other and going WTF??   It doesn’t matter what Umass thinks.  They are ranked 133 out of 134 FBS teams.  They have yet to win an FBS contest.  They lost to Buffalo by 31 points and lost to Missouri by 42 points.  They are averaging less than 14 points per game against FBS competition.

The Bulldogs, however, have also not won an FBS game this year.  This season is a lost cause, no doubt.  They are an SEC embarrassment.  But this is a home game, and a game they are clearly going to win.  But will they cover?  It’s hard to say, since they haven’t won an FBS game yet.  However, the computers think this will be a cakewalk.  How so?

Mississippi State beat Eastern Kentucky in week 1 by the score of 56-7.  The genius Jeff Sagarin has UMASS and EKU ranked virtually identical.  So if MSU is 49 points better than EKU, that’s quite a cushion over an 18 point spread over a team ranked identical to EKU.  That’s not good news for the Minutemen.  At the end of the day, there is a huge differential in talent.  UMass is 113th in total offense and 122nd in scoring offense. UMass is also 104th in scoring defense.  The Bulldogs will be loose and playing with confidence which should translate to points…points that UMass will be unable to match. Loving the home favorites against a very very bad football team.

Took them a little while but Tulane easily covers.  1-0 on the week.  

tulane -16.5 CHARLOTTE

On vacation and I forgot the game was tonight.  Charlotte big step up in competition.  3 of their 5 losses have been by more than 16.5 points and all 3 of these losses were to teams not as good as Tulane (Navy, UNC and JMU).  Charlotte loses because their defense sucks, giving up 34.5 points per game.  Tulane is loaded on offense, averaging 40.5 points per game and when they play bad teams, they run up the score.  QB Mensah is a phenom and is having a great season, completing more than 64% of his passes for 14 TD's and only 3 interceptions.  Tulane can also pound the rock whenever they want, to take control of this game and close out Charlotte - they get 5.0 yards per carry.

The Green Wave will have this spread covered by halftime.  I'm on the road favorite tonight

Looks like my picks this season are going nowhere fast...strap in for week 10..here are my picks... home team in caps....selection on the left hand side:

MISSISSIPPI STATE -18 umass

Ucla +6.5  NEBRASKA

tulane -16.5 CHARLOTTE

which ones do you like?