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TULANE

Tulane +10 over DUKE: I had to wipe my eyes and check this line a gain when I first saw it. Duke is a double digit favorite? And over a team that is off a 39 point road win as a double digit loss no less. Duke is an improved team and they did shock Boston College on the road last week, but they also did lose at home in the opener to Richmond, which is an FCS team. The Duke offense brought back 8 starters and they were to be very improved over last years group, but they have struggled so far putting up just 18.3 ppg on the year and just 17 ppg vs FBS foes. Tulane's offenses has improved this year as they have put up 33 ppg and 393 ypg in the early going. The defense for the Devils has not been that great this year, allowing 28.7 ppg and 373 ypg so far and they should have problems with this solid offense of the Green Wave. Duke is not a blowout kind of team and they really don't play well at home as they are just 3-9-1 ATS as a home fav the last 12 years. Look for the Tulane offense to keep it close vs a Duke team that may suffer a letdown after last weeks upset win vs Boston College. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Duke is just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 home games vs Non-conference opponents, including 0-2 ATS this year.

The Bowling Green offense has been rolling in the early going, but putting up 39 ppg and 521 ypg vs the likes of Wyoming, Morgan State and Idaho is not a difficult task. The Miami defense will be their toughest test so far, as the Red Hawks have allowed just 345 ypg and 23 ppg so far and that was vs Minnesota and Missouri, on the road. Coming into the year I expect this group to be good as they returned 9 defensive starters from a group that allowed just 22 ppg and 339 ypg last year. They should be able to keep the B. Green Scoring down. On the other side the miami offense has really struggled, putting up just 14.5 ppg and 337 ypg and this despite they have brought back 8 starters from last year's team. That attack by Miami will be facing a very improved Falcon defense today. Last year BG allowed 34 ppg and 429 ypg, but with 7 starters back this year they have allowed just 18.7 ppg and 29o ypg. Just one team in this game can score, but they whil be going up against a very tough defense, while the team that can't score will also be going up against a tough defense and to me that's a recipe for a low scoring game. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Under is 46-18 when a team (Miami) playing a conference game in the first month of the season, is off a season in which they finished the year with 4 or more straight wins.

 

GL

EAST CAROLINA -14 over UAB: Last year UAB went 4-8 and were expecting a better showing this year as they had 16 starters back, including QB Bryan Ellis and 9 back on defense. Well that hasn't happened as they have come out 0-2 and have been outscored by 88-10 in the process. Last week was particularly bad for them as they were blasted 49-10 at home as 12 point faves vs Tulane. UAB was thoroughly beaten in that games as they were outgained 540-193 and out-first downed 28-10. That was not a strong Tulane team that crushed them last week. Now they must take on an East Carolina team that may be 0-2, but they did play very well vs in those games vs S. Carolina and Va. Tech. ECU's defensive weakness is their run “D”, but UAB can't run as they have grabbed just 60 ypg on the ground thus far. ECU's offense hasn't really gotten on track just year, but this is an explosive group and should have good success vs a UAB defense that has allowed 525 ypg and 44 ppg so far this year. ECU has won the last 4 in this series and by and average of 16.8 ppg. This one will be much worse as UAB just doesn't have enough play makers on either side of the ball to stay close in this one

 

GL

 The Aggies offense has been great this year as they have put up 41.45 ppg and 486 ypg, but it is the defense that has reminded me of the day of the Wrecking Crew. Coming into the year I felt the A&M defense was a top 10 unit and they have shown how tough they are by allowing just 10.5 ppg and 267 ypg thus far. Granted they haven't really played anyone yet, but make NO MISTAKE this is a very formidable defense that returned 30 of 36 lettermen from last year's team that allowed 22 ppg and 364 ypg. The OSU offense will be their biggest test all year long as the Cowboys come in averaging a whopping 52.3 ppg and 601 ypg. The OSU offense is strong , but they haven't really played anyone either just like A&M and this will be their toughest defense they will have faced so far. The OSU offense has also been a bit mistake prone in the early going a Weedon may have 8 TD passes, but with 6 INT's and they are 93rd in the Nation in penalties. OK we have establishes that OSU has the edge on offense, but here is where the tide really changes as the Aggies do get a BIG edge on the defensive side of the ball. I already went through the strong Aggies defense so let's look at OSU's stop troops. The Cowboys defense comes in ranked 80th in ypg allowed (417 ypg) and 64th in points allowed (27 ppg) and just like their offense piled up numbers vs bad teams their defense has not faced top notch opponents either. A good gauge of this bad defense was last week when they knocked out G.J. Kinne, who is one of the best QB's in the nation, after just 3 series and they still allowed the Hurricane to put up 30 points after he left. Last year Kinne was also this teams leading rusher yet OSU allowed them 365 yards on the ground. Both teams will get their fair share of points in this one, so it will come down to who can get more stops and tat edge has to go to A&M. Last year they led by 14 at the half, but 5 2nd half TO's did them in as they lost 38-35 on the last play of the game. Today they get revenge as their defense comes up with enough big plays to help them to a 10 point win.

 

Gl

    4-1  at least!!

GLTA

GL FRANKIE

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ARKANSAS ST.

This is another case of a team being falsely ranked, as the Hokies come in #23 in the country after beating Appalachian State and East Carolina. Big deal. They barely got by the Pirates and there are at least 40 teams better than this one-dimensional club from Blacksburg. Va Tech has some more important fish to fry coming up. They play Marshall next week and then they open up ACC play. Virginia Tech could be caught napping and they can't fix their broken passing game in a week. Arkansas State is a senior-laden outfit that sports enough offensive playmakers to dent the scoreboard a few times, and a defensive front seven that won't get completely run over. The Red Wolves racked up over 600 yards last week on Memphis and while things get much tougher here, this game is a lot more interesting to the Red Wolves than it is to the Hokies. The Red Wolves hang around in this one.

GLTA

Gl Kansasstate1 

Can the Gamecocks really be up for this one? They opened with a tough fast break game vs E. Carolina in the opener, then had a huge game vs Georgia last week and then have another SEC foe, Vanderbilt on deck. All that is going on for south Carolina and now they have just 1 week to prepare for the option. This is not a good spot for them. SC is 2-0 on the year, but just how good are they? They beat East Carolina by 19 points, but only outgained them by 6 yards and then last week they allowed Georgia to march up and down the field and despite the win they were still outgained by 41 yards. Last week they were very lucky as the Bulldogs made a ton of mistakes and practically gave the game away. SC scored 28 points off TO's and still only won by 3 points. SC's offense has been spectacular so far, but the defense has been bad as they have allowed 390 ypg and 39.5 ppg so far. Navy is 2-0, but their level of competition hasn't been that strong. Their defense was to be a sore spot, with just 3 starters back, but so far they have allowed just 15.5 ppg and having 2 games under their belt should help them as they have some game experience for this one. The option should also help to shorten the game and keep that strong Carolina offense off the field. The Dog is 7-1 ATS when Navy takes on a BCS school and they are 3-0 ATS the last 3 vs Carolina. The Gamecocks have not played all that well so far and are in a classic sandwich spot and Navy has just the right team with just the right offense to keep this one close

 

GL

GL THEMUGG 

Washington State +5.5 over San Diego State: The Cougars are picked for last in the North Division of the PAC-12, but this still may be the most improved team in the league. Now they take on a SDSU team that is just 2-35-1 vs the PAC-12, and is off a cross-country trip to play Army and then they have a game at Michigan on deck to take on their ex-HC Brady Hoke. Not an easy spot for the Aztecs, and even if the schedule didn't set up this way for them they would still be taking on a tough opponent this week. Washington state hasn't played top notch opponents, but they've done what they should vs inferior opponents and that's crush them. The Cougars have outscored their opponents by 47.5 ppg and outgained them by 295 ypg through their first 2 game. Here's a comparison for ya. In UNLV's opening game vs Wisconsin (one of the best teams in the nation) they got 17 points and 292 yards off that top notch defense, but last week they were only able to grab just 7 points and 138 yards off this improved Wash. State defense. Ok were not gonna confuse this defense with the Badger defense, but what it shows is that the Cougars did what you should vs bad competition. So when I look at the numbers they put up vs their 2 opponents, I say year that's about right. The Aztecs have also played some weak competion, but last week despite their 3 point win over Army they were still outgained by 154 yards in the contest. The Aztec's had a good defense last year, but with 5 starters back I see that group struggling, especially vs a Cougar offense that has put up 600 ypg so far. The Aztec offense will be good this year behind RB Ronnie Hillman, but it won't be near as explosive as last year group that put up 35 ppg last year. Right now their weak link on the offense is at WR where they just aren't getting solid play after having to replace their top 3 from last year. The Cougs came into this season just 5-32 in their last 3 years and this year they have started 2-0 and that will give them confidence in this one, especially vs a SDSU team that is in a tough scheduling spot and that is just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs the PAC-Whatever it is now. I look for the outright upset in this one

 

GL

Oklahoma -3 over FLORIDA STATE: Yes I am one of the many that have bought into the hype of the Noles, as I do expect them to have a great year, just not a great game in this one. Last year OU beat FSU by 30 points and I do not feel that the Noles improved enough to close that gap, by 28 points. Yes FSU is improved and will most likely win the ACC and be a top 10 team this year, but Oklahoma is and will be just flat out awesome this year. The Sooners are led by Landry Jones and his is one of the top 3 QB's in the nation and dating back to last year he has put up 376 ypg and 17 TD's in his last 6 starts. Last year vs the Noles he put up 380 yrd and 4 TD's. This is one very good QB. Landry also gets their #2 WR back from suspension in Kenny Stills. Like he needs anymore weapons. The Noles defense is improved over last year and they have allowed just 5ppg and 134 ypg so far, but they really haven''t played anyone yet and they will have all sorts of problems with this high powered OU attack. The OU defense is also strong this year and they held a Tulsa offense that was top 5 in the nation last year and brings back 10 starters this year, to just 14 points. They also did that without DT Stacy McGee who was on suspension, but they get him back this week. The FSU offense will be able to get yards through the air,. But they also need a good running attack to take the pressure off EJ Manuel and this offense. Through their first two games vs shitty competition they have averaged just 4 ypc on the ground. Not gonna get it done here. Oklahoma is Bob Stoops is 11-2 ATS with a line at +3 to -3. The line is only 4 points different than last year while the Noles have improved I just don't think that they did enough to close the gap from the 30 point they lost by last year, even on their home field. OU by 10+ here

 

GL

The Trojans are the best team in the sunbelt and are coming off probably their worst loss of the season as the offense was just off. That was just the first time they scored less than 30 points this year. The Trojans have the #18 passing offense in the country. QB Corey Robinson has thrown for more than 250 yards in every game except last week. Coming off such a poor performance this Troy team should be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. The mean green are 0-4 SU & ATS at home this year and only have two wins on the year versus a couple other bottom feeders in the sunbelt. The mean green will want to run the football here as their passing game is non-existent since their top two Qb's have went down. They have not thrown for more than 200 yards in any game and troy does have the #1 defense versus the run in the sunbelt. I like troy here to bounce back with a strong effort after last weeks game

(Baylor +8, One of the ongoing arguments in college football is whether high-ranked teams from “non” BCS schools (Boise State, Texas Christian) deserve a shot to play in the national championship game if they run the table. Due to ESPN having the opportunity to televise their games, it has been Boise State who has received the bulk of the national “small school” attention as they had the opportunity to play Virginia Tech in an ESPN Monday primetime battle opening week. Almost completely ignored on opening week was TCU’s victory over an opponent (Baylor) who very quietly is having one of the nation’s biggest turnaround campaigns. For those who have yet to watch Baylor, they are led by quarterback Robert Griffin who at one time was a high school star in the state of Texas (Friday Night Lights) as his coach was offensive mastermind Art Briles. When Briles advanced to the collegiate level (Houston Cougars) Griffin followed him. After a run of success with the Cougars, Briles moved up to a bigger paycheck with Baylor and once again Griffin followed him. For those who watch FOX-NET early today you will see that Griffin has the speed of a world-class hurdler which is why he rushed for more than 840 yards on the ground during his freshman season of 2008. Due to a severe knee injury most of 2009 was wiped away, but Griffin obviously is back to full health in 2010 where Baylor has already become “bowl eligible” for the first time in fifteen long years when the Big-12 Conference as we know it was formed in 1995. One would have thought that after garnering enough wins for postseason consideration two weeks ago that Baylor would suffer an emotional letdown on the road last Saturday, but that was not the case as the Bears pulled off a stunning underdog OUTRIGHT upset of the Texas Longhorns. One of the reasons why Baylor’s attack has been so successful has to do with a massive offensive line which features a pair of 300-POUND giants that can literally move concrete in the pits. Baylor also has a special teams weapon in Derek Epperson who a year ago was one of the nation’s best punters averaging more than 45 yards per boot. Regarding today’s game I am fully aware that Oklahoma State has owned Baylor in this series (13-2 SU/11-3 ATS) and that the Cowboys have reinstated wide receiver star Justin Blackmon (62 receptions, 112 yards, 14 touchdown catches) after a one-game suspension. But due to the fact that Oklahoma State is involved in such high scoring games, their secondary has statistically been shaky which opens the door to an interesting database angle. Baylor just happens to be on a productive 11-3 ATS roll when facing a poor pass defense that allows the opposition on average to complete at least 58% of their attempts. In the past three years Baylor has successfully COVERED the spread at an 8-1 clip on the road when facing an opponent with a “winning” record and Oklahoma State certainly fits that bill

gl fellas!!!