jasondemz

Tampa Bay looking like a strong play as well. Ravens have covered 4;straight games. Tampa Bay at home as an underdog of 3.5 with a good run defense. Lamar as a favorite on road above 3 points is not a good spot. Baltimore in a flat spot with a divsion road game at Cleveland on deck. Add to the fact that you are asking him to throw to win the game is also not the best option. Add in that Ravens secondary is not good going against Godwin and Evans and you have a recipe for a Tampa cover. FG game either way. Taking the points. 

I am not a Jets fan. (Actually, I am a Broncos fan). Regardless, the Steelers have nobody to throw to outside of Pickens. Gardner will be on Pickens. Advantage Gardner. Jets will stack the box and ask Fields or Wilson to beat them aerially. Not happening this week. The Jets will use Hall more in this game as a pass catching RB in the flats to stifle Pittsburgh pass rush. Jets offensive line can handle Pittsburgh front. Rodgers has too many weapons now. They have Adams on the field with Garrett Wilson, Lazard, and possibly Mike Williams, and Breece Hall. It is too much for the Steelers to handle even with their top 10 defense. The real deciding point is simple. The Steelers will not be able to keep up on offense from a scoring perspective. Rodgers is coming off of 3 straight losses and now you have him as a favorite of less than 3 with a top to bottom better roster than the Steelers. Rare spot that you need to bet. Talent wins out here in this game... even with Tomlin playing as an underdog at home on National TV. (which has been a historically good spot to bet on Pittsburgh). 

Jets is the play here. They lost twice on National TV. 

At San Francisco and Home against Buffalo this year. 

Due for a win under the lights of National TV. Especially on National TV the following week. 

On a more serious note, it is Aaron vs. who is the Steelers QB...lol. 

Jets have a decent defense. Steelers will not be able to pass on NY Jets. They can only run. 

Add in Davante now on the Jets. Easy win. Jets by 10. Steelers will go to Russell after this game. 

Washington is due for some regression. 

Underdogs for sure this week after watching road favorites just clean up.

Cleveland +5 - Both tackles are now back for Cleveland and Cincinnati's defense is bad. Cleveland's is respectable. Cleveland will get its offense going this week. Rumor is that Nick Chubb coming back this week. Short week for Cincy on road again playing against a team off of 3 straight road losses. The over might not be a bad play here either. 

Carolina +7.5 - Washington is on a streak of over 3 straight ATS wins including a push last week at Baltimore. They play Chicago at home the week after. Carolina is coming off of 3 straight ATS losses. Flat spot for Washington as an inflated favorite. (Sell high on Washington, buy low on Carolina)

Seattle +2.5 - Seattle off of extended rest now travels to play a team off of 3 straight division games and they have a road game at Tampa Bay on deck. This is a flat spot for Atlanta in a 1 game homestand. Seattle off of 3 straight ATS losses as well. Sell high on Atlanta, buy low on Seattle.

Carolina / Washington under. Rule of 3 in effect. Go opposite of both teams coming in off of 3 straight overs. (Same would have applied if both teams came in off of 3 straight unders. (you play the over in those situations). Strategy has been profitable over the years.

Atlanta / Seattle under. See rule of 3 in effect above. Applies to this game as well.

Miami +3.5 - Indy has covered 4 games ATS in a row and now have a 1 game homestand which is sandwiched in between back to back tightly played tough division road games and they have Houston on the road on deck the following week. Miami has had 2 weeks to prepare for Indy since they are coming off of a bye. I am not saying they win but at least stay within the 3. Indy is banged up and they will probably start Richardson at home this week after Flacco has provided quality back up QB services. Probably no Jonathan Taylor either. Pittman not 100%. Miami is rested. This is a flat spot for Indy.

KC has won their last 5 games against the spread.

SF has lost their last 3 games against the spread.

Is there anybody here that can run a query that yields a record where a team on a streak of 3+ wins ATS plays against a team on a streak of 3+ losses ATS? (Maybe going back 10+ years would be nice as it pertains to a timeline)

Maybe Indigo might be able to run this query?

Just curious on this one? Thanks

5 out of the 6 games in the wildcard round were not close with 3 underdogs winning outright. The Lions/Rams game was the only game that was close.

I believe this round we will not have as many blowouts. 

@leafs1789

I am going to fade KC next week when they play at Baltimore for the AFC Championship. Baltimore will struggle with rust this game and pull it out in the end against Houston. KC will be coming into that game next week with 4 straight wins against the spread if they beat Buffalo and the spread will probably be Baltimore -3 or -3.5. Baltimore will cover and go to the Superbowl and lose to SF in a revenge game. 

By the way, I just rewatched the Tampa Bay vs. Detroit week 6 game in Tampa. A very telling note that I must say is that Detroit has much more speed than Tampa, especially their wide outs and keep in mind that the first time they met, the game was on grass. Now it will be on synthetic turf. The Detroit wide receivers got better separation against the Tampa secondary than Tampa's wide outs did against the Detroit secondary. For some reason Tampa's wide receivers (Goodwin and Evans) remind me of the Chargers wide outs (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams). They are good receivers but lack shiftiness and speed. Godwin is a bit more speedy than Evans though. The difference in this game to me is team speed. Detroit has it and Tampa does not. Also, Gibbs did not play at RB for Detroit in the first game. Tampa stopped the run in the first game but Goff was picking the secondary apart. I do not see what changed from that game to now. Same game plan this go around will do however, I definitely see this hitting over 50 points total.

San Francisco has not covered a home game since early October against Dallas. (5 straight losses at home ATS). I took SF -10. Green Bay run defense is not so special.

Green Bay has played in 6 straight overs on the road. I took the under 50. Weather forecast calls for sloppy conditions as well.

KC has played in 4 consecutive unders and now faces an injured Bills defense especially in the middle. Go opposite and take the over. At the very least, Josh Allen is good for 21-24 points at home. 

Bills on 6 straight wins and are playing on an unsustainable level. Time for regression against a better defense and coach. KC wins by a field goal but I took the +2.5.

Houston +9.5. Baltimore will be rusty and have won 6 straight with Lamar if you exclude resting their players against Pitt in week 18. Go opposite. I think it will be close because Houston has a defense and they are not the same team that Baltimore met in week 1. Gonna be cold and windy. The under is a good recommendation but I think Stroud and this offense has too much talent to be receiving +9.5. Baltimore wins by 7 or less but Houston covers. 

Detroit ML - Despite TB's solid run defense, Gibbs and Montogomery will do just enough to aid Detroit in another close win. TB does not run the ball really well either and they will not against another good run defense in Detroit. This will be won through the air and Goff has more weapons. TB is on 4 straight unders. The over is also a good play.

Houston +9.5

San Francisco -10 and under 50

Detroit ML

Kansas City +2.5 and over 46.5

Houston +2.5 and under 44.5

Dallas ML and over 50.5

Rams +3 and under 52

Over 43.5 in TB/Philly game

I also have 8 team parlay to hit $3200...same card as above but remove the over in the TB game.

Replace with Miami +4.5 and over 44.

I believe there was a thread here at beginning of year that someone mentioned regarding teams ATS record the week after winning by exactly 1 point. If someone has that thread or stat please share. I think it applies to the Rams this week.

@Dental

@Dental

 I incorporated the 1pm parlay and the 4pm parlay as er below to win $12500

Bengals ML and under 37

Vikings +3.5 and under 46

Jets +1.5

Tenn/Jax over 41.5

GB/Chicago under 45

Denver+3

KC/LAC under 35.5

Dallas/Wash over 46.5

Philly/NYG over 42

I did not parlay all 1pm recommendations into 1 parlay but my analysis says they are the suggested plays. 4pm as well.

@mccofp

 I apologize. I meant Under 45. Take the under. By the way if u are railing that parlay, I would leave out  Bears +3 and Seattle ML. Those 2 are leans that I put in the steamer. I feel a bit stronger about my 12 steamer belowin the thread that I added this past Friday night

@mccofp

 I apologize. I meant Under 45. Take the under. By the way if u are railing that parlay, I would leave out  Bears +3 and Seattle ML. Those 2 are leans that I put in the steamer. I feel a bit stronger about my 12 steamer belowin the thread that I added this past Friday night

4pm games summary:

Denver +3

Philly ML

Philly / Giants over 42

Chic/ GB under 45

Dallas/Wash over 46

Seattle / Arizona over 47.5

KC/ LAC under 36

Tough calls on GB / Chicago and Seattle /Arizona games. Can go either way from a sides perspective 

A few other games to note and I have in some parlays is the under 37.5 in the Cincy / Cleveland game. Cleveland is on 5 straight road overs.  Go opposite and take under. I have on 2 parlays.

Vikings on 3 straight overs. Go opposite Take the under of 46. I have on 2 parlays.

Lions on 3 straight covers ats. Go opposite. Take Vikings +3.5. I got +5.5 earlier in week.

Pats on 4 straight overs. Go opposite.Take under 30. 

Sunday 1pm summary:

Vikings ATS and under

Bengals ML and under

Jets ATS and under

Tenn ATS and over

Car/ TB under

No play on ATL/NO game but I lean over

I forgot to mention that I have a 12 team parlay going as well to win $28,500. 

Pitt ML, Houston ML, Cincy ML, Philly ML, Jets +2.5, Minnesota +5.5, Denver +2.5

Over Ten/Jax 40

Over Dal/Wash 44.5

Over Seattle/Arizona 47.5

Under Chic/ GB 44

Under Car/Tampa 37.5

A little further information that I will add to this thread.

Colts have won 3 games straight up at home including a recent Saturday night game where they dominated Pittsburgh. Here is another Saturday night game in front of their home fans playing against a Texans team seeking same season revenge. Leaning a change in regression here. I have Houston ML on a few other parlays.

Pittsburgh was blown out on a recent Saturday game against the Colts and now they play another Saturday game against Baltimore who has covered 6 games in a row. They are due regression. Hence, I have Pittsburgh ML paired with Houston ML on those same parlays.

Philly has lost 5 straight games against the spread with 4 of those straight up. They happen to be playing at the same time as the Cowboys who are on the road against a division rival. Giants covered their last game at home and Philly is in the playoffs already but they are lacking momentum going in. Giants are not truly playing spoiler here. Philly has an NFC championship to defend but it all starts with getting the team playing better going into the playoffs. I have Philly ML on a few parlays and I even have Philly -5 in 1 parlay. Philly is due to cover a game. 

Dallas is on 4 straight unders and 3 straight losses against the spread and Washington's game last week at home went under. Go opposite. I took the over in the Washington/Dallas game and is in some of my parlays. I am careful about taking Dallas with all of those points. I avoided it. I just have a feeling that Washington keeps it closer than it needs to be this week. They are also seeking same season revenge however talent for Dallas will probably win out here. Staying away from spread but gun to head says Washington +13.5.