jasondemz

I just saw total dip to 49 from 49.5. This triggered me to make the bet now. I couldn't wait until next Sunday.

Feel strong about a straight up Philly win here but honestly the way this season has went, it would not surprise me at all if KC won by exactly 1 point. (not more)

To avoid a push on the spread, I pulled the trigger.

Eagles +1.5 and Under 49 .........$1186 to win $3130.

Done. 

@maxwagers781

 Either KC wins by exactly 1 point (not more) or Eagles win Superbowl. 

@tjones1270

 All things including trends usually come to an end. In my case, I look at this as entertainment. The TV stations are in on the betting stuff along with the NFL and Vegas. It is too lucrative to not be the case. If I am looking at this from an X's and O's perspective, Philly has the advantage in the trenches and playing against a Fangio defense means less big plays for KC. Same on the other side against a Spags defense. KC will need to win on the outside with their WR's (Brown, Worthy Thompkins).. in this game. Philly's corners match up well. The run game will not be there and Fangio's defense typically covers the middle of the field well. (Much better than Buffalo). Philly can run better than Buffalo as well which will shorten this game. (Think UNDER 49.5) Philly's offense is no slouch as they have talent on the outside that can beat KC's corners but it is really Goedert who will be doing the damage in this game since KC is not that good at covering TE's. I look at this game as being a better version of the KC / TB super bowl. I think that Philly will extend drives more than KC because they have the better 3rd down defense. Yes, I am aware that Fangio is 0-8 against Mahomes but this defense is special and their front 4 can get home without sending extra bodies especially on the exterior. The interior line is an advantage for KC. I see a close middle scoring game like a 23-20 final with Mahomes driving down field at end of game for a win to put the game over 49.5 but he gets picked off. Philly gets revenge and the crown. The public loses on the KC ml and over bets. Just the way I see it. I believe Tom Brady is calling this game on FOX. It would sure suck to have to be the announcer watching Mahomes get the 3 peat which is something Brady never did. Safe to say it won't happen either for Mahomes. Just my opinion.   

My out of the box methodology of the NFL Fixed League is the following:

FOX is hosting Superbowl.

In playoffs, FOX had 3 games and the outcomes are below:

Philly beat GB (Favorite covered and under covered)

Washington beat Detroit (Underdog covered and over covered)

Philly beat Washington (Favorite covered and over covered)

Only 1 combination left (Underdog and UNDER).

Betting $1300 on this parlay on Superbowl Sunday.

Hopefully it hits.

Snow starts at 1pm. Hoping the over still happens here. 

Rams won and covered their last 4 road games. Their last 3 road games have been played to the UNDER. Philly has won and covered 3 straight home games as a favorite. Their most recent two went UNDER. I played Philly -6 and over 43.5 despite the weather. Too much offensive talent on field for an under I feel. 

Ravens have won and covered 5 straight games. It ends in Buffalo. I like taking teams where they start as a favorite at beginning of week and turn to a home dog by game time. Buffalo ML. No Zay....no way for the Ravens. Two MVPs against each other in 10 degree temps...give me the over 51 because fans want to see a 28-24 final but actually this is a revenge game from earlier this year. Bills circle the wagons with a Zayless Ravens team that will have King Henry facing a heavy defensive box. Likely will have a good game with Andrews but not enough. Ravens secondary got better recently but they haven't faced a team like Buffalo during the latter stretch of their season. Smoke and mirrors. Ravens secondary getting exposed tomorrow like early in season 34-20. Tomorrow Romo wants an OVER game since he just called a Buffalo UNDER against Denver last week. Buffalo ML and over 51.

Baltimore won and covered last 4 games.

Pittsburgh lost last 4 games straight up. Tomlin was an underdog in all 4 games.

Chargers have covered 5 straight road games and now a short line favorite on the road again.

Chargers played OVER the total in last 4 games.

Browns have lost their last 5 games SU and ATS and now play Baltimore who has won last 3 SU and ATS. Sounds similar to my prior post regarding the Steelers/Bengals game. Baltimore just wants to win the game without getting anyone injured playing a 4th string QB that actually won a game in the NFL playing under Belicheck. I would have been more inclined to bet Baltimore if their secondary were better but it's not. This has 27-10 backdoor cover written all over it.  Take Cleveland getting anything above 17 points. They have a decent defense and know Lamar's tendencies. Besides, Harbaugh has bigger fish to fry with either his brother or Tomlin coming to Baltimore the following week. Can't see Baltimore getting up for this game when everyone knows the division is in the bag and this game is just a formality.

Pittsburgh has lost their last 3 games straight up and against the spread all as underdogs.

Cincinatti has won their last 4 games straight up and against the spread all as favorites.

The line opened at Cincy - 2.5 and is now down to -2 or -1.5 at various sites.

Do you think Tomlin does not cover as an underdog for the 4th straight week? This is his bread and butter spot.

I mean it would do the team wonders to win this at home in 22 degree windy weather with a chance of snow and then play at Houston as opposed to a road game at Baltimore? The team has a clean health report as of the latest injury report. Leaning Pittsburgh +1.5

Raiders and Saints now both on 5 straight UNDERS. 

Saints have not covered ATS their last 4 road games

Browns and Titans have both lost SU and ATS five straight games

Jets lost 3 straight home games SU and ATS

Steelers have lost 3 straight games SU and ATS

Bengals have won and covered 4 games straight up and ATS

Denver has covered 4 games straight up and ATS at home

Giants have lost last 4 road games straight up and ATS

Chargers have won and covered 4 straight road games

Titans have not covered a home game all year.

Vikings on 9 game winning streak SU

Patriots have went OVER last 5 games at home

Steelers last 3 games at home went UNDER

Denver will backdoor their way in. Cincy, Miami, and possibly Denver could all lose outright. 

Denver covered and won SU last 4 games at home. They are due for a non cover and possible straight up loss at home.

Cincy won and covered last 4. Pitt lost last 3 straight up and ATS all as underdogs. Tomlin at home as a dog again. Tomlin wins this time. Game will probably be on Saturday night.

Jets lost straight up and ATS the last 3 times at home. Aaron wins finale as a home dog. 

Denver will backdoor their way in. Cincy, Miami, and possibly Denver could all lose outright. 

Denver covered and won SU last 4 games at home. They are due for a non cover and possible straight up loss at home.

Cincy won and covered last 4. Pitt lost last 3 straight up and ATS all as underdogs. Tomlin at home as a dog again. Tomlin wins this time. Game will probably be on Saturday night.

Jets lost straight up and ATS the last 3 times at home. Aaron wins finale as a home dog. 

Looking at the over in the Rams/Cards game. Could see lots of points here in this spot. Both teams don't generate any pressure on QBs and game is indoors. 

Take Chicago +3.5. Seattle has covered and won its last 4 road games. Bears lost last 4 against the spread. It ends tomorrow. Go opposite of the trend and take the Bears ATS. 

Take over 37.5 in Raiders and Saints game. Both teams on 4 straight unders. This ends Sunday. Go opposite. Take the OVER.

Overall, I have a 10 team parlay that pays $5k: KC -2, Baltimore ML, Jets +9.5, San Francisco +3, Atlanta +4,  Bears +4, over 37.5 in Saints game,  Tennessee ML, Miami ML, and Green Bay ML. (I decided to flip to GB after doing further analysis. I am oncerned a little about Green Bay covering last 4 ATS but they are the better team. Vikings on 7 game winning streak SU. Onevtrend has to end.)

Pittsburgh has won and covered 4 straight ATS at home. People are extremely tempted to take Tomlin at +2.5 as a home dog off of two straight road dogs losses. Tomlin can't possibly lose 3 straight as a short home dog playing in a sandwich spot between Baltimore and Cincy games. Take Pitt next week as a short home favorite against Cincy. For this week take KC - 2.5. Better team with Brown active. 

Take Tennessee ML and Cleveland +6.5. Both are ugly teams on streaks of losing 4 straight ATS and SU. Pendulum swings other way. 

Take NE +4. Chargers have covered last 3 road games ATS. Trend reversal. Heavy ticket count on LAC. Reverse line movement also. 

Be wary of hopping on Rams who won and covered 4 straight ATS with a rapidly increasing line up to -6.5. Arizona could play spoiler in this spot after being spoiled last week. Leaning +6.5 Cards. 

Take 2 line flippers...Minny and New Orleans. Both favorites early in week ...now dogs of +1. Both at home.

Finally, lean SF +4...getting healthy and will show out one more night with Trent Williams possibly back at LT. Detroit in sandwich spot between division games...2nd roadie in a row now in a standalone night game with a crappy defense against an outdoor team on grass that underachieved due to injuries now getting healthy and a competent offense. Last second Detroit field goal game winner. Could see a straight up loss here as well.

@CravinMorehead Yeah. This one is.

New Orleans +14. Green Bay covered last 4 straight ATS...New Orleans lost last 4 ATS the spread on road ..go opposite as trends reverse. Take New Orleans +14 and get paid. Take GB next week as dogs against Vikings.

Although I agree...one big difference...Surtain was out that game and Dobbins was playing for LA. Now flip those. Things can go differently. I originally said Chargers by 10 early in week....but I might have to lower the prediction because Surtain is playing after a full practice. McKonkey will have a big game here. 

Jets +3 is a lock

Denver injuries have lightened a bit with only Riley Moss and Jaleel McLaughlin out. Still on LAC -3 though. Could be a push game.