jasondemz

@CravinMorehead Yeah. This one is.

New Orleans +14. Green Bay covered last 4 straight ATS...New Orleans lost last 4 ATS the spread on road ..go opposite as trends reverse. Take New Orleans +14 and get paid. Take GB next week as dogs against Vikings.

Although I agree...one big difference...Surtain was out that game and Dobbins was playing for LA. Now flip those. Things can go differently. I originally said Chargers by 10 early in week....but I might have to lower the prediction because Surtain is playing after a full practice. McKonkey will have a big game here. 

Jets +3 is a lock

Denver injuries have lightened a bit with only Riley Moss and Jaleel McLaughlin out. Still on LAC -3 though. Could be a push game. 

Take a look at the road vs. home splits for the Rams. They did nothing on the road all year. Weather forecast in the teens. Not good for an indoor team on the road with an early start and 2 more important division games on deck with the first of those games being played on a short week coming up (Saturday). Take the UNDER as well.

@Hiok1553

Sean Payton- Denver. - Yes, I am aware that all of Denver's wins were against a weak strength of schedule, but he has this team on the cusp of getting to the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade with a mostly no name roster and a rookie QB under center and the team is in cap hell this year. Their defense is for the most part solid along with their special teams. He is coaching an offense that lacks a running game, no big name TE, and a group of non-speedy WR's that lack the ability to get separation yet they are at 9-5 and a blocked chip shot field goal away in Kansas City from being 10-4. Their two home losses to the Chargers and Steelers were by 7 points each. Their only true blemish was getting blown out in Baltimore. A truly masterful coaching job by Sean Payton this year.

Take Detroit this week and fade them as small road favorites at San Francisco the following Sunday night. They can't afford a division loss. It's the bigger of two games for them. Plus they are coming off of a loss against a team that is mailing it in.

@tahoejoe2

 You play the under because Denver is on a short week after playing 3 straight OVERS against Indy and Cleveland at home as well as prior to that they played an OVER in Vegas. The team is tired. They will not give max effort here. LA goes up early and just wins a typical Harbaugh game. They will probably win by 10-13 points but not go over the total. It will just be LA's defense smothering Nix. I see a couple of picks here by Nix. Denver will be playing in a high scoring game the following week against Cincy in a standalone game on National TV. This is a short week with minimal preparation on the road for Coach Payton. They will want to get out of this game without injuries. They will lay down here in this spot. It gives them extra rest going into the Cincy game. Just my perspective from being a Denver Broncos fan for the last 30 years. I could be wrong and will be pleasantly surprised to win and get in the playoffs but LA is the more desperate team in this spot especially coming off of a blowout loss. They did not even try in the 2nd half of last weeks game. They are loading up for this game. 

FOX Games:

Philly/Washington - Take Washington +4 and lean OVER. Purely a spot play. Philly has won SU and covered its last 5 road games. In this series, they have also covered and won the last 3 games played in Washington. Despite the Eagles being a solid team coming off an in-state rival victory (which was emotional because of the media on Hurts/Brown matter), this situation is ripe for a regression and the Eagles are due for a non-cover on the road. Washington should be able to stay within the number here. They finish with Dallas and NYG at home after this. It would not surprise me if Washington won this game straight up but I am not playing the ML. This number is a tad too high. By the way, Eagles are on 3 straight UNDER and Washington on 3 straight home OVERS. I lean OVER because both teams coming off an UNDER game. Go opposite if picking a total here.

Detroit/Chicago - Take Detroit - 6.5. Despite Detroit playing its last 3 home games, they did not cover any of them. They are on 3 straight non-covers against the spread. Now they go on the road off of a SU loss and are playing to keep the #1 seed and the division lead. Chicago is coming off of 3 straight road losses with the most recent one on a short week. Did you see Chicago's QB sitting on the bench and his reaction last night. They are on to next season. The coaching advantage is not fair. The talent is far apart and this game will not go like the Thanksgiving game where Chicago snuck up a bit on Detroit. Detroit will be focused for this game division game especially since division tie-breakers come first ahead of conference tie breakers (Think Vikings here). Detroit might be banged up on defense a bit but they will outgun Chicago here.

Rams/Jets - Take Jets +3 and sprinkle on the ML and lean UNDER- Trap line if I ever saw one but it goes deeper than this. By the way, they scheduled the next Rams get to play Arizona on Saturday of following week. This hints at a Rams loss here. Rams have won SU and covered 4 straight road games. Jets are coming off of a road win and now a home underdog. Rams coming off of 2 big emotional games that they won and now have a non-conference East Coast early start road game prior to playing 2 more divisional games at home to close out the year. Jets on 4 straight OVERS. This goes UNDER with a big game from Breece Hall. 

Tennessee / Indy - Take Tennessee +4 - Mason Rudolph will have a good game here. He is more competent than Levis. Tennessee sports the better defense. Indy just lost an emotional game in Denver and now has a 1 off home game against Tennessee, who just happens to be one of the worst covering teams in the NFL. However, this series normally plays tight and for some reason Tennessee plays better against Indy on the road than at home. They won and covered 3 of their last 4 games played at Indy in this series. The number is a bit high with a demotivated Indy team coming home to get themselves up to be a favorite when they realize their playoff shot is pretty much over due to losing the head to head tiebreaker with Denver and LA probably beating Denver on Thursday ahead of this game. Take the ugly dog here to ride RB Pollard to a big day against this suspect Indy run defense. 

Chargers/Broncos- Take Chargers - 3 and the UNDER. It is really simple. Denver will have both of their CB's out this week. Surtain and Riley Moss. Furthermore, they will have a couple of guys on their interior out as well including DJ Jones. Denver has won SU and covered ATS their last 4 games. Now on the road against a much tougher opponent than prior 4 games, you have an easy recipe for a Denver loss. Perryman back in for LA helps the defense. Take the UNDER in this game since LA has went 4 straight OVERS at home. By the way, another big clue was that they flexed the Denver / Cincy game to Saturday at 4:30pm the following week. Why do that unless you know that game will have playoff implications. Denver on a short week on the road against a Chargers team off back to back losses with most recent one a blow out at home. Again..easy winner here.

Texans/Chiefs - Take Chiefs ML and lean OVER. Texans look like they are going to be locked into the 4 seed. Not catching KC or Buffalo and Houston has a game with Baltimore on deck. Chiefs have not covered at home in 4 straight games. They have 2 games at Pitt and at Denver to close out the season. They will play all out in this game because if they lose this game paired with a Buffalo win on Sunday..would mean that they will have to win both road games. (Buffalo last 3 games are cakewalks). KC has played last 3 games to the UNDER. In addition, they played their last 3 home games to the UNDER. Wentz will air it out a bit this week along with Stroud as well. I can see multiple turnovers both ways resulted in short fields and lots of points to barely achieve the OVER late.

Pittsburgh/Baltimore - Take Baltimore -6. Pittsburgh is hurting on defense without TJ Watt. They will probably hold out Pickens again this week. Ravens at home with revenge basically off of a double bye if you consider the Giants any competition. Baltimore has too many offensive horses in this game to keep it close against a banged up Pittsburgh defense playing its second straight on road. With no Pickens and not being able to run against Baltimore's top rush defense..this = a Ravens easy win. Ordinarily, Tomlin as an underdog on the road is an autoplay. Bettors would be even more sure to play Tomlin as a road underdog after just losing as a road underdog. Also, Pitt has owned this series winning straight up 8 out of the last 9 games they played while covering 7 of them. This is a trap line. Pitt can give this game away as they would still own tiebreakers with home games against KC and Cincy still remaining. Take Pitt as a home dog against KC next week. Baltimore wins by 7 minimum and clinch a playoff spot. 

Really tempted to take New Orleans +7. Who is Washington to be laying -7 points on the road. They have Philly on deck at home and Saints playing at home as a big underdog off of a road win. As crazy as it is...they are only 2 games out of the division lead. Their 3rd string QB is not bad either. He should actually be their 2nd string. Last 7 games in series have all gone OVER. I actually see this going OVER as well. Washington lost some firepower at WR this week. They will have to rely on McLaurin and Robinson at RB. Not bad but not enough to cover -7.5 on road with such a big revenge game on deck. Take New Orleans +7.5

You can't back Denver in this spot with Riley Moss out. He is Denver's #2 CB. He was out last game against Cleveland and the Denver secondary was a liability despite winning. Josh Downs is back for Indy. They have Pittman and Downs on the outside. Surtain will cover Pittman but Downs will eat. This is the issue for Denver. Take Indy +4

Summary of this post....take Detroit -1.5 and take Arizona - 6

@pavaman58

 Wow...60 years. Crazy

Seattle has gone UNDER at home last 3 games. Looks like game against Green Bay should reverse and go OVER the total.

Bucky Irving is the key for Tampa Bay. Very underrated running back and makes the offense go. Chargers have absolutely no running game whatsoever. It is really impacting them in being a solid team. I think Tampa Bay is a live underdog this week to win outright. Chargers in a sandwich spot between playing at KC last week and Denver on deck on a short week coming up. Tampa Bay +3 and a sprinkle on the ML

Josh Downs is practicing for Indy this week. Riley Moss is Denver's #2 CB that will be out for 2 more games. I can't tell you how critical it is for Denver to have their secondary healthy especially the way their Defensive Coordinator like to play man to man on the outside. No Riley = No Good. Denver has been a solid team covering their last 4 games and winning 3 of them. Indy's defense is weak against covering TE's and weak against the run. The problem is that Denver lacks TE talent and they don't run very well outside of Jaleel Mclaughlin. They can't take advantage of Indy's weaknesses. Not a good matchup. The spread is too high. Indy like Cleveland did... will test Denver's #2 CB. That is the key in this game with Downs return. Take Indy +4. Field goal game either way.

You can make an argument that they are in the top 3 of best teams in the league. Solid defense, solid offense. I know that Tomlin is lucrative as an underdog on the road but he is holding WR Pickens back one more week. The Steelers, like the Chargers are caught in a sandwich spot between two division games. They have Baltimore on deck and they have a 1.5 lead in the division. This is a non-conference road game for Pitt. Philly is coming off of a flat poor performance despite getting the win last week. Pitt has not won in Philly (I do not believe ever, but I can be wrong) Anyway, this is a live favorite. Take Philly - 4.5. No Pickens, no shot in Philly. 

Arizona will rout the New England Patriots who sport one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Arizona has lost their last 3 games SU and playing the 2nd of back to back home games after being obliterated by Seattle. The score did not justify how that game went. Arizona is a lot like Miami. This game will go like the New England / Miami game a few weeks back. Arizona has a solid running back, TE, and WR to easily dispatch this squad. Take Arizona -6.5

Tennessee is your 1pm EST live dog this week. They have not covered a game against the spread at home all year and this could be their best shot against a god awful Cincinatti defense. The Bengals are coming off of a short week back on the road and have a division game on deck. Tennesse got back one of their two CB's Awuzie last week. I do expect Higgins to have a big game since Awuzie will be on Chase. Despite this, Tennessee will put up points at home after going UNDER the number at home in their last 3 outings.  This game will go OVER the number. Look for RB Pollard, and former Bengal WR Boyd to have a nice outing. One other key item...there is a lot of familiarity between these 2 teams as a number of former Bengal players now play on the Titans roster. This game will be close. Take Tennessee +5

Jets have played 3 straight OVERS. I think this game with the Jags will be low scoring. I like the UNDER here. 

Leans but no plays below:

Kansas City is currently on a 6 game ATS losing streak including 3 straight non-covers ATS when playing at home. Kansas City has won every nationally televised night game they have been on this year. (Don't like this stat coming into this game if I am a Chiefs backer) Dobbins may not be back for this game. This game is for KC to clinch AFC West. Waiting on injury report. Leaning KC -4

Notes - Dallas has won SU and ATS the last 4 vs. Bengals. They are playing on extra rest at home as an inflated underdog against a historically bad Bengals defense. Lean Dallas +6.

Carolina has lost last 3 ATS on road. All blowouts. Carolina has covered last 4 games but all were at home. Philly have covered and won SU their last 4 games. A trend will be broken either way here. Lean Carolina +12.5

Giants have not covered or won a game at home all year. Saints have not been a good team outside of the dome historically. Furthermore, they are not that good in cold weather in an outdoor stadium historically either. No lean on this game. Gun to my head...NYG +5

Atlanta lost their last 3 straight SU and ATS. Furthermore, their last 4 games have gone UNDER. My only lean on this game is to go OVER. Nothing on the side perspective. Vikings won last 4 with division game on deck. Could be a tight game here with Falcons playing desperate. Make no mistake though...the Vikings have the better coached team with better playmakers. Falcons could be in free fall. Lean Minnesota -5

Rams +4.5 - Home dog after win on the road prior week. Buffalo covered last 6 out of 7 including last 3 games on road. They play Detroit next week. This is a sandwich spot for Bills. Rams a live dog to keep it close. Field goal game. Buffalo on 4 straight overs. Lean to the UNDER on this game.

San Francisco - 4 - Despite lots of injuries, they will show out against an interim coach. Desperate spot for 49ers. This is really their season as they are only 2 behind Seattle/Arizona with 5 games to go. They lost last 4 ATS. Furthermore, they only have 1 cover at home in their last 4 tries. Purdy gets the offense going in the air this game. Chicago has yet to play a game OVER on the road all year. This changes this week. Game should go OVER the total. 

Arizona - 2.5 - Seattle on 3 straight wins ATS after long travel win at NY Jets and now have to fly all the way back to the West Coast for another road game in the rematch at Arizona. Arizona currently on 4 straight UNDERS. I strongly feel this game goes OVER the total. 

4pm Games Summary: Rams +4.5 and under, San Francisco -4 and OVER, Arizona -2.5 and OVER

Cleveland +6 - Cleveland off of Monday night game now at Pittsburgh again who will be playing their 4th straight division game. Pittsburgh covered last 3 at home ATS. Tomlin not good as a favorite beyond -3. Play the division road dog to keep it within the number. Slight lean to the UNDER due to Cleveland playing their last 3 games OVER the total. 

Jets +6.5 - Too many points for Miami to be laying at home to a talented yet leaderless Jets team that have lost the last 3 games SU and ATS. The key thing though is they were listed as a favorite on the closing line of all of their last 3 games. Now they are an inflated underdog. I like the UNDER here as Miami has played OVER the total in its last 4 home games. 

Tennessee - 3.5 - Titans have not covered a home game all season. They get it here on the defensive end. This is their best chance. 

Tampa Bay - 7 - The Bucs have lost their last 3 SU at home. Their team health has drastically improved and will now play against a Raider team coming off of a close division loss heartbreaker. The Raiders now have to get motivated to play a 1pm East Coast non-conference game. Bucs will blow this team out Sunday.

1pm Games Summary: Jets+6.5 and UNDER, Cleveland +6 and UNDER, Tampa -7, and Tennessee -3.5

Rams +4.5 - Home dog after win on the road prior week. Buffalo covered last 6 out of 7 including last 3 games on road. They play Detroit next week. This is a sandwich spot for Bills. Rams a live dog to keep it close. Field goal game. Buffalo on 4 straight overs. Lean to the UNDER on this game.

San Francisco - 4 - Despite lots of injuries, they will show out against an interim coach. Desperate spot for 49ers. This is really their season as they are only 2 behind Seattle/Arizona with 5 games to go. They lost last 4 ATS. Furthermore, they only have 1 cover at home in their last 4 tries. Purdy gets the offense going in the air this game. Chicago has yet to play a game OVER on the road all year. This changes this week. Game should go OVER the total. 

Arizona - 2.5 - Seattle on 3 straight wins ATS after long travel win at NY Jets and now have to fly all the way back to the West Coast for another road game in the rematch at Arizona. Arizona currently on 4 straight UNDERS. I strongly feel this game goes OVER the total. 

4pm Games Summary: Rams +4.5 and under, San Francisco -4 and OVER, Arizona -2.5 and OVER

Cleveland +6 - Cleveland off of Monday night game now at Pittsburgh again who will be playing their 4th straight division game. Pittsburgh covered last 3 at home ATS. Tomlin not good as a favorite beyond -3. Play the division road dog to keep it within the number. Slight lean to the UNDER due to Cleveland playing their last 3 games OVER the total. 

Jets +6.5 - Too many points for Miami to be laying at home to a talented yet leaderless Jets team that have lost the last 3 games SU and ATS. The key thing though is they were listed as a favorite on the closing line of all of their last 3 games. Now they are an inflated underdog. I like the UNDER here as Miami has played OVER the total in its last 4 home games. 

Tennessee - 3.5 - Titans have not covered a home game all season. They get it here on the defensive end. This is their best chance. 

Tampa Bay - 7 - The Bucs have lost their last 3 SU at home. Their team health has drastically improved and will now play against a Raider team coming off of a close division loss heartbreaker. The Raiders now have to get motivated to play a 1pm East Coast non-conference game. Bucs will blow this team out Sunday.

1pm Games Summary: Jets+6.5 and UNDER, Cleveland +6 and UNDER, Tampa -7, and Tennessee -3.5

Detroit covered last 3 at home (all 3 games went OVER)

Chicago failed to cover last 3 on the road (all 3 games went UNDER)

As a matter of fact, Chicago has not played a game that went OVER on the road all year.

Trend reversal means a Chicago ATS cover and probably their first OVER for the year on the road. (Chicago ATS +10 and the over 48.5)

Last 4 meetings between Dallas and NYG went OVER when the game was played in Dallas.

Dallas has played OVER in all but 1 game at home all year.

Furthermore, Dallas has lost every game SU and ATS all year at home.

NYG have lost their last 6 games SU AND ATS. (No lean on this game but a trend or trends will be broken here)