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I'll tell you s/u I'm having a horrible season. And I'm 7-11 in the playoffs so far. The main reason is I play way too many games but that is mainly for action & those are for only $10-$20 each. But then there are what I call the Golden Nuggets...the ones I find after doing extensive research that I will hammer for hundreds. My greatest example is I posted many multiple plays on one game...KC @ Denv. Halves, team totals, alternate lines, etc...in which I made a couple grand. I also posted GB in a blowout vs NORL on MNF with Halves, team totals, alternate lines, etc...& banked. So how do I compare $10's-$20's compared to $100's+++ The answer is: I don't. What matters is the account is in the black. I've been doing this for decades, for far too long, and I never bet what I can't lose. I learned that lesson the hard way more than 30 years ago. I finance the account with xtra monies & never have to worry about re-stocking it. That's my play money, just some of my entertainment money. So I guess you can say both can be true. I play for fun & I play for serious money. But I know when to do what & never break that rule. Once you can master that, only then are you a true gambler... |
BeeRich | 75 |
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Allen should be MVP. It all comes down to this: He beat both #1-seeds in both conferences already & with a lot less weapons. Without him, the Bills wouldn't be sh*t. And the MVP is not for seasons past. |
BlackstoneIV | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:
So here's the contemplation I'm having (Admittedly a Bills homer). If one is going to play the Bills here (I don't take points on dogs - just my long term strategy) are you better off looking at superbowl matchups and take them +260 to win the superbowl? They're +112 at my book currently (I know I can do better) so a unit win here is +1.12. Bills / Eagles is a pick em so a unit would be +.90 for a total of 2.02. Same payout for Washington but I'm laying points vs. +2.60 unit and a hedge consideration is Washington wins. Thoughts on the play and not necessarily the teams? Let It Ride!!! The Lords of Football have ordained the Bills win the SB. Finally! KC's about to get steamrolled! |
Lucky Luciano | 33 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: I totally agree that someone with this methodology would help an NFL team to alert a coaching staff to possible poor performance coming into a game. As far as fading trends, I think there is a good rationale for that....Jowchoo on this forum had a massive year this year, probably the best of anyone on this site. As far as I could tell, his methodology was to find a team that had four or more performances above or below 500 and then to fade that trend in a teaser. For example if the Raiders were 0-4 to the OVER in the year to date, he would play them OVER their next game in a teaser, the rationale being that everything reverts back to the mean. It's hard to argue with his results, as he hit over 60% on over 400 plays and I do find it interesting that of all the cappers that I have seen on this forum, he is the only one that has detailed his approach, which is systematic in nature, and he is also been one of the best cappers here....I don't think that is a coincidence, as the universe gives back to those that give. I did this once in a very simplistic manner many years ago in baseball....I would look at home favorites or left handed pitchers, etc....and when they had won or lost three days in a row I would go the opposite...the bookmaker I had at the time said he'd never seen someone who had been as successful as I was over that season. I will definitely look at emulating Jowchoo's methods next season in the NFL. It is interesting that coaches are now well aware of phenomena like let down spots and trap games (I hear them talk about it in interviews) and try to anticipate and prevent it for their team, but those are so obvious compared to the level of influence that hidden historical trends, like those you find, have on the outcome of a game. That’s whole other level of performance related data and predictors. I believe I have seen Jowchoo’s thread but I did not know what his methodology was until you explained it. One method I’ve been using is watching line movements and comparing the ones between a sharp book and a square book: the difference is sometimes night and day. For instance, I got worried about my Detroit pick last night when the line at the sharp book dropped to -7.5 -110 before the game and it was still at -8.5 -115 at DraftKings. Meanwhile the ML fell to -490 while it was still -550 at DraftKings. When Detroit took a 7 point lead, the line at the sharp book hardly budged while the line at DraftKings went up, making Detroit a bigger favorite. A big thankyou from the SDQL professor ..indigo beginnerboy; Since my regession model by my definition cannot start until week 5, I approach the first 4 weeks thusly: I have tracked pinnacle's lines for a few decades as I admire their crew, as the best in the business,year in year out. When they have stand alone lines, they are by definition taking a position on that game. This position is more often then not the right side So, together with my early season SDQL querys I fashion my plays. I way over achieved this year and fully expect to have my regression model regress....lol Going (+61.2%) on 733 plays is not sustainable. I was reticent about sharing this as books pay attention and I was quite happy with the public thinking 2 team 6/6.5 teasers were book friendly. While, the books finally woke up and now it is difficult finding good prices. My vig this year was between -114 to -121. I have a new challenge this off season and that is to create a props model based on SDQL data. I like the potential. GOOD LUCK There he is... |
Indigo999 | 73 |
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Polar_Bear | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by anNFLfan:
After I read a number of good writing about Redskins, the Eagles line moved from -4.5 to -5.5. I'm curious why. there is a reason rookie qb's are 0-5 in the CC game |
GMoneyGTown | 33 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Riderx:
Both teams, Balty & Buff, are going to cover at +7 each. Don't have to wait. Bingo |
ActionMagnet | 32 |
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road teams off B-B road playoff wins & scored more than 32pts last game: Only 1 '10 GB @ div foe Chic...won s/u 21-14 '24 Wash @ div foe Philly GB won the SB behind gunslinger AR Wash has gunslinger JD Wow put some on Wash to win SB |
Riderx | 1 |
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Buff & Balt are #2 & #3 scoring Offenses |
Newkid92 | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Riderx:
both teams MOV more than +6 during the regular season, both teams off a playoff game, road team not a dog of 5 or more & not off a bye, total more than 46.5 & opp off a s/u win by 18+: 4 games...the prev 3 all went to OT...all 3 went Over road teams: 36-41, 37-31 & 28-31 Ravens/Bills Over 51' in OT... those 1st 2 are aFC games...77pts & 68pts |
Riderx | 6 |
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team on a 4+ win streak, team avg'd more than 27 & allowed less than 15 L4, off a playoff game & vs conf opp not off a bye, on Sunday: 5-0 s/u...home or away, dog or fav All AFC games went Over...with the above teams scoring 35, 36 & 34...Balt Over TT Balty s/u in OT Over 51' |
Riderx | 6 |
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both teams MOV more than +6 during the regular season, both teams off a playoff game, road team not a dog of 5 or more & not off a bye, total more than 46.5 & opp off a s/u win by 18+: 4 games...the prev 3 all went to OT...all 3 went Over road teams: 36-41, 37-31 & 28-31 Ravens/Bills Over 51' in OT... |
Riderx | 6 |
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@Fuse
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Riderx | 6 |
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wtf...this is football...all games should be outside on grass... |
Moose6836 | 20 |
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Since '89 to now, in the database: Non-div conf road dogs of +5 or more on Sunday on 5 days rest, team scored 20+pts in the 1st-half, vs opp on 6 days rest: 0-4 s/u...by -25.2ppg 0-4 ats...by -17.5ppg 4-0 o/u...by 19.1ppg All 4 were NFC teams, just like today If they are off a home game: 20-53...-33 s/u...at +6...-27 ats 17-47...-30 s/u...at +6...-24 ats Rams are +6' & the Eagles were involved in those 2 prev. avg TO's: 3.0 vs 0.5 Q1: 0.0 - 12.0 Q2: 4.5 - 20.5 Q3: 3.5 - 9.0 Q4: 10.5 - 8.5 Philly-6' Over 42 Over 1st-Half Philly Over TT Philly-9', Philly-12', Philly-15', etc...you get the point (Yeah, I know it's snowing all day, but it's not rain) |
Riderx | 6 |
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game #2...Wash/Det...going with simplicity: Home teams in the playoffs with 14+ wins & a bye vs opp off road dog win & 5 days rest: 2-0 s/u & 2-0 ats & 0-2 o/u 38-7 & 20-3 Det-8', Under 55' avg 1st-half: 22.5 vs 1.5 Det- 1st-half Wash Under TT |
Riderx | 23 |
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@savanh1
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savanh1 | 15 |
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Div Rd Home Favs that were in 4 playoff games & won the SB the previous season are: 0-3 s/u & ats...against the Chiefs s/u & something else for all you sdql'rs: tpS(playoffs=1)=2 and A(margin@team and A and playoffs=1, N=1)<-10 and A and p:playoffs=1 and op:week=o:week-2 2-0 s/u...24-13 & 24-21 Texans+9 & Texans +400 m/l |
Riderx | 23 |
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Smoqueed47 | 10 |
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@GriLo
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GriLo | 22 |
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