andarmac99

Interested to hear some on your methodology, especially your anchors.

I understand they are regression based. But regressing to what and over how many games? Cleveland this week for example. What are you looking at that makes them an anchor? I assume it is because Pittsburgh is in a regression spot. But what criteria makes them in a regression?

Please for the love of god just go back to the scoreboards you had before you changed to these stupid ones earlier this year. Why does it take 7 months of wasting everyone's time with feedback?

The scoreboards suck. Go back to the old ones. Done.

Colin - Something I don't get about the new MLB Scores pages. Take a look at this one from last night: https://www.covers.com/sports/mlb/matchups

Look at any one of the games and all the dead white space between the team name and final score that used to show the scores by inning but now is just dead wasted space. Why has the scores by inning disappeared? Anyone betting first 5 innings and looking at the scores pages doesn't get what they need.

And it's not a scraping issue because if you click on the boxscore you have the scores by inning, and they are live too!

It just makes no sense. This is such a simple fix.

Colin - I see today you have updated the MLB scores page and somehow they are even worse than football and basketball.

How can you justify removing so much info from the pages? There is literally almost nothing there now. And you can't even see the scores by inning.

Pure garbage.

Nothing redeemable about them. Truly don't understand it. The old ones were so simple and had everything on them. Teams, Score, SU records, ATS records, last 10 records, home and away records were displayed prominently. The logos were much bigger and colorful and made people want to visit the page.

The new ones don't even have the opening prices for spreads and totals. The logos are smaller. The team names in all caps bolded is just obnoxious. The whole scoreboard is actually bigger too and makes you scroll more and fits fewer games on mobile. And when a game has gone final, the final score is not separated enough, and you have to read the stupid text at the bottom to see who covered and whether it went over or under. The old ones took a one second glance and you easily got all the info you needed.

Probably the biggest downgrade in the site's history. What was the reason for changing? Because it was a big fail.

Niners had 31 carries for 110 yards. Just 3.5 YPC. Chiefs run defense with Bolton...not too shabby huh. He had 18 combined tackles + assists.

Insanity. One day they will learn.

Good luck today, brother. Great to see you. It's like 2010 around here today.

I still can't forgive Kaepernick for crapping himself early in the Super Bowl, and Jimmy G for crapping himself late. Both cost me big. Would be fitting if Purdy holds his own today to knife me when I'm against them.

Really appreciate the counterpoints from everyone. Let's hope for a great game.

Fun to see so many old names in here especially BigNiner. It's been years. Hope you are well!

@begginerboy

The line is beginning to drop. I expect it to drop further. 

None of those people you mentioned have any influence over the NFL market. Books are using models to set lines so groups using models don’t beat them. The models like SF and that’s why they are favored. 

I think what’s happening is books are getting so many small KC bets that it’s adding up too much. They need some of the SF money from the sharp groups so the line is ticking down. Think it might land 1. At PK they get too much influential SF money. 

To sum up: I think the modelers and stats guys are missing some key pieces of context. They aren’t truly digging deep enough. Statistics and models don’t allow them to. They are betting against Mahomes and KC as underdogs yet AGAIN. It is true definition of insanity.

6. Coaching

I think you can call OC Kyle Shanahan vs DC Steve Spagnuolo a wash. They are the two best in the league in my opinion. But Andy Reid with prep time vs DC Steve Wilks is a disaster for the 49ers. Wilks has been stubborn all year sitting back in zones and refusing to adjust the defense. Shanahan has had to involve himself in the defensive meetings multiple times. In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers were gashed the entire game by Amon Ra St. Brown. It wasn't until a late 3rd down that Wilks finally moved CB Charvarius Ward onto Brown for just one single play. Ward is a great player. But Wilks does not move guys on defense. Ward plays left CB 94% of snaps. Reid with two weeks prep can move Rice and Kelce around and away from Ward. I expect big games from both. Kelce has actually played 61% of snaps in the slot or out wide this year. He should get some great looks here against the much weaker SF defenders.

And then there is the issue of coaching game management. Andy Reid is no saint here to be sure. But Kyle Shanahan is the King of all Kings in making -EV decisions. He's done it his entire career in big spots. Continually clamming up and getting conservative. It has cost him BIG. At least two Super Bowls. We saw just two weeks ago before the half yet again he pissed away an opportunity for a TD somehow burning off 4 minutes and only settling for a long FG. TRUST that he will come up small and cost them again. There is nothing to say otherwise.

7. Intangibles

This can tie in the coaching decisions as well and is more opinion based. But Mahomes and KC right now are not making mistakes. Mahomes has a negatively graded play rate in the playoffs of just 6% and that is against the best three teams in the AFC. Purdy has a negatively graded play rate of 23%, which for the season would be dead last. And he's had the fortune of playing his two playoff games as TD+ favorites against two pathetic pass defenses. He's looked confused and jittery. If KC CBs play like I think, and SF's OL gets exposed like I expect, I think Purdy is going to look terrible.

The Chiefs have by far the better kicker too. Butler has kicked in big games for years and has only missed 2 kicks the entire season. Moody for SF has missed 3 kicks in the last 3 games and a lot of the ones he's made have been moving all over the place.

And I gotta tell ya. I watched the media night event. The Chiefs were booed mercilessly. This game is going to be 80% Niners fans. KC will have the building and everyone against them and I think they relish it. They've needed this and they thrive in these environments. There was a moment with Mahomes and Purdy on stage together and Purdy looked like he was shitting his pants hearing the crowd boo Mahomes. He couldn't even look at him. The Niners are going to feel pressure in this game. It's impossible not to when the crowd is on your side but against Mahomes. Look what happened in Baltimore. You can sense when the crowd knows Mahomes is on the other side. And when that pressure is on, cracked pipes become burst pipes. 

There's been some discussion too about how the Niners haven't played a good playoff game yet and the Chiefs have shot their load. Small sample but favorites in the Super Bowl after not covering the championship game are 0-5 ATS since 2000. Playing bad in the semi-final is a precursor to playing bad in the big game. It is the opposite for underdogs like the Chiefs. Dogs in the Super Bowl after winning SU as dogs in the championship game are 10-1 ATS since 2000.

4. The KC secondary has been playing incredible

Specifically, their CBs Sneed, McDuffie, Watson, and Williams. The Niners have the better offense in this game. There is no debate. But the Chiefs have by far the better defense. And they also have the pieces on defense to slow down the SF offense. I've already laid out why I think the KC run defense is much better than anyone thinks. But I also think the play of the Chiefs CBs is not being properly accounted for. The Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens had the best three offenses in the AFC this year and the Chiefs have completely blanked them in the pass game in their three playoff wins. Look at the stat lines those opposing QBs have put up:

Tua: 51% for 199 yards and 5.1 YPA

Josh Allen: 67% for 186 yards and 4.8 YPA

Lamar: 54% for 272 yards and 7.4 YPA

The Chiefs 4 CBs are playing at an insane level. During those three playoff games against the best three offenses the conference had to offer, they have allowed a combined 47% of targets to be caught for 262 yards. Insane. And if you're CBs can play well and man up on WR and make Purdy hold the ball then you have this problem:

5. The 49ers four offensive lineman other than Trent Williams are pilons in pass protection.

It's been an issue all year. The other 4 guys on the OL are bad. But SF has been ahead so much that they haven't been exposed often. PFF grades the other 4 Niners OL as below replacement level pass blockers. RT Colton McKivitz has allowed 9 sacks and 55 pressures this year. George Karlaftis and Chris Jones should both tee off here in passing situations if the Chiefs CBs work on the Niners WR like they have the other good offenses they have played in the playoffs.

Purdy has been atrocious against the two Top 5 pass defenses he has faced this year and that is largely due to the Browns and Ravens having excellent secondaries like the Chiefs, and Purdy being forced to hold the ball and allowing the other 4 OL to be exposed. Against the Ravens, Purdy held the ball for almost 3 seconds and was pressured on 42% of drop backs. Against the Browns he was pressured on 48% of drop backs. I'm expecting heavy pressure in this one from KC.

2. The KC run defense

It's bad. We've all heard. We've all looked at the stats. We've all modeled. "SF and McCaffery are going to run all over this terrible run defense!" "BUT THE CHIEFS ARE 28TH IN RUN DEFENSE EPA!! Let's add some context: Nick Bolton. He's the Chiefs best LB by a mile. He plays almost every snap when healthy. He's darn good against the run. He has KC's top run stop% among regular defensive players. Last year PFF graded him as the best run defender on the whole team. Not only is he very good but him in the lineup also improves the spots around him by bumping everyone down a rung. But he missed half the season.

Let's look some basic rushing stats. This season including the playoffs (and minus Week 18) the Chiefs gave up 4.8 YPC in games Bolton missed. A terrible number. But when he played that number was 4.2. Much better. But further context reveals that the Chiefs play a lot of man coverage. That leaves them susceptible to QB runs and KC got killed there this year. But Brock Purdy really doesn't run. Sure, he's had a couple scrambles the last few weeks. But for the season he has just 39 rushes, and the vast majority of them have been kneel downs or sneaks. It's unlikely that QB runs are going to be meaningful for SF here. If you remove all QB runs from the games Bolton has played, then the KC run defense further improves to just 4.0 YPC allowed. The playoff game against the Bills where KC allegedly got run over? That was mostly all Josh Allen. James Cook had 3.4 YPC. If Brock Purdy decides to become Josh Allen on the ground in this game, then I'll tip my cap. Models and surface level metrics say the Chiefs run defense is terrible. Contextually with Bolton in there...not too shabby.

3. Talanoa Hufunga

SF's best Safety. He tore his ACL in Week 11 and the SF defense has fallen off a cliff. Since he went down (and throwing out Week 18) if you look at plays excluding turnovers and garbage time (<10% win prob) the Niners defense is 21st in EPA/play allowed. 19th in success rate. Their run defense has cratered ranking both 27th in EPA and  success rate allowed. They have been run over in both playoff games. So much of the focus has been allegedly how bad the KC run defense is, but I would make a strong argument that contextually, SF has the much worse run defense.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Here we go again. The modelers and stats folks are betting against Mahomes and overweighting SF on paper. They are overweighting that SF is built to beat the crap out of bad teams. The league was down this year. I said it in my writeup fading Baltimore. SF beating the crap out of bad teams and the middle class in a down league makes them look incredible in the metrics. I don't buy it. Dominate wins against the Cowboys and Eagles look great on paper but were those teams actually any good?

Something I fundamentally believe in the modern age of betting is to dig beneath the surface stats and matchups. Everyone is using the same team level data and matchup metrics. Everyone is making the same models using the same stats. DVOA, EPA, CPOE, etc. I'll even use a few of them below. But the real edge IMO in the modern market comes from peeling back the onion and examining context. Not just what a model spits out. Here are a few contextual factors that I believe aren't being fully accounted for:

1. Mahomes

I don't think the models are fully factoring in Mahomes. But how can that be, andarmac99? There has truly never been a QB like this. He has consistently elevated his play in the biggest moments and situations. He's almost immune to pressure. He's now 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog. His EPA is consistently BETTER when he's an underdog. It's BETTER when he's trailing. It's BETTER when he is away from home. No player has ever elevated his play, and his teams' play in these situations better than him. The models using base level, and even weighted season stats on the KC offense with Mahomes are severely underweighting KC. You must account for his elevated play when it matters most.

Those with FanDuel accounts can get some Chiefs +3 lookahead against SF in a potential Super Bowl. Can even get 4 figures with a good account.

I mean...

@JackAdamsss

 Niners big.

No, they were not that good at all. One of the most overrated "great" teams of all-time.

Hat tip to the Lions for a great season. I don't think they are particularly good. SF played horrible last week and should have lost. I like to play teams the next week where they found a way despite not having their best. Shanahan is the worst game manager and will def make many -EV decisions though. While Campbell as a dog might legit go for every 4th down and fake every punt. Quite a game management mismatch you have to hold your breath on but I like SF quite comfy.

SF 35-17.

Look, has KC looked bad at times this season? Unquestionably. Could you nit pick them? Yessir. Does Thuney being out hurt? BIG time. If you made it this far you're probably thinking, Jesus andarmac99 why are you picking on Baltimore so much? Because the Chiefs have Pat. They have the GOAT. His record now games with a line of -3 or less sits at 22-8 ATS. 8-1-1 as an underdog. His EPA is significantly HIGHER when his win probability is under 50%. He's a true unicorn. Everyone is scared sh!tless of this guy. Everyone at the Bills game last week said the crowd totally puckered up. The same will happen in Baltimore. You could already sense the tensions and pressure when they were tied with the freaking Texans at halftime last week. Mahomes' offense as a whole might be down, but he also has by far the best defense he has ever had. It is going to take a supreme game to beat him by more than 4 points. You have to be an all-time team to be -4 over Mahomes. You're paying a price to back Baltimore like they are that all-time team. Truth be told, I don't think they are.