BigNiner

Reverse jinx attempt 

Water

The line doesn’t predict who will win, Roger Goodelll does.

i kid, I kid. 

I think San Fran comes out with something to prove today. It’s now or never for this group. They’ve responded every time their backs have been against the wall this year.  Could win big if defense shows back up. 

@Neef

 I haven’t heard anyone predicting that.

Today marks the 49ers 20th playoff game since 2011. Excluding last year's loss to the Eagles, where the had no able body to throw the football, the 49ers have gone 13-5 SU in those 18 games. Those 5 losses were:

2011 - overtime loss to Giants in NFC championship game

2012 - Loss to Baltimore in Super Bowl by 3, where they had the ball first and goal to win the game

2013 - Loss to Seattle by 6 in NFC championship, where they were denied at the goal line on the final play

2019 - Loss in Super Bowl to the Chiefs where they lead by 10 points with 7:03 to play in the game

2021 - Loss in NFC championship game after leading by 14 in the 4th quarter

If you look at the Shanahan era alone, the Niners are 8-2 SU in the playoffs. In the 2 losses, the Niners had the game firmly in hand in the 4th quarter and were arguably one play away from winning both games.

If you look at Shanahan in the playoffs alone, including the Patriots Falcons Super Bowl, he has had double digit leads in the 4th quarter in his 3 playoff losses.

the 49ers are 6-0 their last 6 playoff games as favorites. 

There is nothing in SF's recent history to give any indication they will get dominated today. They might lose the game, but if they do it will be close. They are always well prepared. If The Niners blow another late double digit lead today, they will have a permanent stink on them, a la Buffalo Bills. 

The Chiefs enter this game with the #27 ranked DVOA run defense, facing a team whose identity is running the football well. The Chiefs gave up 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season and are only 7-6 when teams run for 110 yards against them. Baltimore only ran the ball one time in the first half after Gus Edwards long run early in the AFC championship game. They never went back to the run after that. If the Niners run the ball, it will open the Niners playbook up wide and they will win this game today. 

Secondly, The Chiefs defense excels at blitzing with a 61.5% pressure rate. Spagnola's playoff history suggests this will be a point of emphasis today for the Chiefs. Brock Purdy is number one in the league by far at beating the blitz. To me, these are the 2 biggest keys to the Niners winning today.

I initially like the under in this game, but it seems so does everyone else. San Fran's defense hasn't played a great game in months. Not sure if they can revert to form today, but getting embarrassed the last 2 games for the world to see should provide some motivation. 

Andy,

Great to see you on here bro. Good shit as always. Totally agree on Hufanga. You can draw a straight line between when he got hurt and the Niners defensive struggles. I disagree on the chiefs run D and I think that is an area where they’ll get exposed today. If the Ravens would’ve stuck with the run instead of panicking, they’d be playing today. Respect your thoughts as always.

I’m going to try and write up my thoughts on the game in a little bit. Glad to see you around, man.

This Chicago defense is jealous of the 1995 Bears. Don’t tell tt_boy I said that though. 

First time I’ve seen Bears and playoffs in the same sentence in a long time.  

You know there are 4 quarters played, right?

You and everyone else on this board. Good luck with this play. 

You’re big on the Jets today, but you’re on Houston in the first half???

Sports betting isn’t for everyone. 

When I think of defense, I think of the Bears.

MrBator, I initially shared your thoughts on the Jets, but after perusing this board for the last hour, I can only seem to find Jets backers, which concerns me immensely and is chasing me off my Jets moneyline bet. 

I’m confused, do you want the better defense or are you taking the Bears +3.5?

The Eagles had the NFL’s 24th ranked defense against the run this year. They’re about to get trucked in a few hours.

^^^^Brock Purdy has more PLAYOFF wins than Jalen Hurts.

Brock Purdy has more wins than Jalen Hurts

They also got run the fuck over by Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson…I think.

Dallas and San Francisco had to be played on Sunday because Dallas he just played Monday. 

Were they going to play a game in California at 12:00 PM local time?

Yes, you’re off. They’re all playing.