JohnKreese

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Posts: 155

Member Since: February 2008

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by JohnKreese: I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple. Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made? Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them. We see this more and more in financial markets these days. “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what. Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes. Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you. If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened… Wow. I COMPLETELY misread what you meant by "fix". I was providing a "fix" for the bad coaching decisions. hahaha. oops. View Post \| View Thread	vanzack	116	February 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: It happens all the time in real life. Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities. You are looking for patterns in randomness. There is no way to script that. I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen. DETAILS. Who did it. How they did it. I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple. Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made? Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them. We see this more and more in financial markets these days. “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what. Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes. Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you. If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened… View Post \| View Thread	vanzack	116	February 07, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MNF Bears +5 in NFL Betting I agree with your take on this game but why would you buy the hook to get it to 5? View Post \| View Thread	Contrarian21	15	October 31, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nobody scared that gs is -111 without dray in the series? in NBA Betting I think startupboy must have seen this tweet and gotten his numbers mixed up. GSW in Finals: With Draymond at C: 81 minutes, +53. All other lineups: 111 minutes, -24. View Post \| View Thread	startupboy	6	June 13, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nobody scared that gs is -111 without dray in the series? in NBA Betting Just checked. Green's +/- by game in the series: 17, 20, -15, 14 That equals +36 which means they are -7 without dray. Not -111. Where did you get that number from? View Post \| View Thread	startupboy	6	June 13, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nobody scared that gs is -111 without dray in the series? in NBA Betting That must mean they are +140 with him on the floor since they are up 29 pts. That can't be right, can it? View Post \| View Thread	startupboy	6	June 13, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to ### best handicapper alive ### in MLB Betting The records are intended to be a joke, right? Just want to be sure I'm not missing something. View Post \| View Thread	WussieMan	17	May 19, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Quant Edge in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by lastround37: you play too many games thats is why your record is like that Like what? winning? He's hitting 55% with an 8.6% ROI. Is your record better than that? View Post \| View Thread	MrECapps	262	May 19, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to What was the final of Georgia Southern? in College Basketball Brutal. Thought I won. Just brutal. View Post \| View Thread	scho525	7	November 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic How does Dr Boob still move lines? in College Football Guy is barely above water since 2007 and is having another losing season this year. Do the books themselves adjust based on his plays? or does he still have that many followers that actually move lines with their action? View Post \| View Thread	JohnKreese	2	October 31, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *NFL WEEK 9 PLAYS* in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27: He is horrible. Probably, no is the worst capper on this site by far. Not only is he horrible he lies about everything. So even when he says he wins he probably lost. Ok ban me again covers for battering your best client. Its pretty remarkable really. Would be a fascinating case study for psychology students- a fake internet personality exhibiting sociopathic behavior. He's between the ages of 36 and 40 and lists his interests as "Sex With My Girlfriend". That one kills me. View Post \| View Thread	PrimeTimeBoys	214	November 02, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *NFL WEEK 9 PLAYS* in NFL Betting Has anyone ever gone back and tallied up this guy's dollar figure from the time he started posting? He has to be down well over a million right? View Post \| View Thread	PrimeTimeBoys	214	November 02, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *MONDAY NIGHT PRIME TIME GAME---TEXANS VS JETS* in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984: One of the most underrated frauds in the entire forum. Uses GIANT CAPITAL LETTERS in all his thread titles, wagers fake, obscene amounts, has a game of his life/year/etc. every week, sometimes twice a week. My personal favorite though, is when he says "if this play loses, i'm done". Play loses, yet he's still playing. Or this year, in fucking week 2 or 3, has 2 bets using all of his "bankroll". This guy is a joke. Luckily, about 85% of the forum knows it already. Only the newbies looking for a bailout follow this dope. Don't be so mean guys, he's got his PLAY OF THE YEAR coming out soon! He won't tell anyone what it is (probably because he doesn't know what it is yet himself) because..... well, actually I can't think of any reasonable reason why he doesn't tell people what his POY is. Look at me! Look at me! I have a play of the year! Really can't wait to see the results on this spreadsheet. View Post \| View Thread	PrimeTimeBoys	84	October 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bos/NYY total looks fishy in MLB Betting As in Kobra Kai John Kreese. It does seem too easy. I may take the bait though. View Post \| View Thread	JohnKreese	3	October 03, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Bos/NYY total looks fishy in MLB Betting I'm seeing it at 9 with the over at +105. Dice K is on the bump for the sox and he's got an ERA approaching 8. I realize the Sox lineup is pretty brutal but both teams wore out their 'pens last night in the 12 inning game. And it is certainly conceivable that the Yanks could put up 9 on their own. Anyone else have this one capped at 10 or higher? Or am I crazy? Is weather a factor in that line? Looking for some input. View Post \| View Thread	JohnKreese	3	October 03, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NYY @ Minnesota Twins With Write-Up 1:00PM in MLB Betting Al Capone, I saw the Yahoo write up too. I was also confused about how a pitcher can get shut out. Regardless, some decent angles here and good value on Twins at +230. I'm on it. View Post \| View Thread	BentleySports	28	September 26, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NYY @ Minnesota Twins With Write-Up 1:00PM in MLB Betting How is he on short rest? he pitched Friday. Are you saying short rest because its a day game? View Post \| View Thread	BentleySports	28	September 26, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Going for 3rd road dog upset in a row Cubs@Giants and reasons why... in MLB Betting I like the pick but your Bumgarner stat is way off- you need to count the innings pitched in the minors- counting those, here are the totals: 2009: 272 (includes winter ball) 2010: 193 View Post \| View Thread	Gilberto	12	August 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Betting System in Website Promotions Friend request sent, would like to have a look at the system. Thanks! View Post \| View Thread	Pricetopher	234	July 19, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WHERE AND HOW TO IMPROVE?? in MLB Betting I'd start by filling that empty OF slot. View Post \| View Thread	ashlandarrows22	14	April 25, 2011 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by JohnKreese: I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple. Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made? Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them. We see this more and more in financial markets these days. “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what. Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes. Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you. If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened… Wow. I COMPLETELY misread what you meant by "fix". I was providing a "fix" for the bad coaching decisions. hahaha. oops. View Post \| View Thread	vanzack	116	February 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: It happens all the time in real life. Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities. You are looking for patterns in randomness. There is no way to script that. I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen. DETAILS. Who did it. How they did it. I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple. Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made? Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them. We see this more and more in financial markets these days. “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what. Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes. Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you. If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened… View Post \| View Thread	vanzack	116	February 07, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MNF Bears +5 in NFL Betting I agree with your take on this game but why would you buy the hook to get it to 5? View Post \| View Thread	Contrarian21	15	October 31, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nobody scared that gs is -111 without dray in the series? in NBA Betting I think startupboy must have seen this tweet and gotten his numbers mixed up. GSW in Finals: With Draymond at C: 81 minutes, +53. All other lineups: 111 minutes, -24. View Post \| View Thread	startupboy	6	June 13, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nobody scared that gs is -111 without dray in the series? in NBA Betting Just checked. Green's +/- by game in the series: 17, 20, -15, 14 That equals +36 which means they are -7 without dray. Not -111. Where did you get that number from? View Post \| View Thread	startupboy	6	June 13, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Nobody scared that gs is -111 without dray in the series? in NBA Betting That must mean they are +140 with him on the floor since they are up 29 pts. That can't be right, can it? View Post \| View Thread	startupboy	6	June 13, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to ### best handicapper alive ### in MLB Betting The records are intended to be a joke, right? Just want to be sure I'm not missing something. View Post \| View Thread	WussieMan	17	May 19, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Quant Edge in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by lastround37: you play too many games thats is why your record is like that Like what? winning? He's hitting 55% with an 8.6% ROI. Is your record better than that? View Post \| View Thread	MrECapps	262	May 19, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to What was the final of Georgia Southern? in College Basketball Brutal. Thought I won. Just brutal. View Post \| View Thread	scho525	7	November 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic How does Dr Boob still move lines? in College Football Guy is barely above water since 2007 and is having another losing season this year. Do the books themselves adjust based on his plays? or does he still have that many followers that actually move lines with their action? View Post \| View Thread	JohnKreese	2	October 31, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *NFL WEEK 9 PLAYS* in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27: He is horrible. Probably, no is the worst capper on this site by far. Not only is he horrible he lies about everything. So even when he says he wins he probably lost. Ok ban me again covers for battering your best client. Its pretty remarkable really. Would be a fascinating case study for psychology students- a fake internet personality exhibiting sociopathic behavior. He's between the ages of 36 and 40 and lists his interests as "Sex With My Girlfriend". That one kills me. View Post \| View Thread	PrimeTimeBoys	214	November 02, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *NFL WEEK 9 PLAYS* in NFL Betting Has anyone ever gone back and tallied up this guy's dollar figure from the time he started posting? He has to be down well over a million right? View Post \| View Thread	PrimeTimeBoys	214	November 02, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *MONDAY NIGHT PRIME TIME GAME---TEXANS VS JETS* in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984: One of the most underrated frauds in the entire forum. Uses GIANT CAPITAL LETTERS in all his thread titles, wagers fake, obscene amounts, has a game of his life/year/etc. every week, sometimes twice a week. My personal favorite though, is when he says "if this play loses, i'm done". Play loses, yet he's still playing. Or this year, in fucking week 2 or 3, has 2 bets using all of his "bankroll". This guy is a joke. Luckily, about 85% of the forum knows it already. Only the newbies looking for a bailout follow this dope. Don't be so mean guys, he's got his PLAY OF THE YEAR coming out soon! He won't tell anyone what it is (probably because he doesn't know what it is yet himself) because..... well, actually I can't think of any reasonable reason why he doesn't tell people what his POY is. Look at me! Look at me! I have a play of the year! Really can't wait to see the results on this spreadsheet. View Post \| View Thread	PrimeTimeBoys	84	October 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bos/NYY total looks fishy in MLB Betting As in Kobra Kai John Kreese. It does seem too easy. I may take the bait though. View Post \| View Thread	JohnKreese	3	October 03, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Bos/NYY total looks fishy in MLB Betting I'm seeing it at 9 with the over at +105. Dice K is on the bump for the sox and he's got an ERA approaching 8. I realize the Sox lineup is pretty brutal but both teams wore out their 'pens last night in the 12 inning game. And it is certainly conceivable that the Yanks could put up 9 on their own. Anyone else have this one capped at 10 or higher? Or am I crazy? Is weather a factor in that line? Looking for some input. View Post \| View Thread	JohnKreese	3	October 03, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NYY @ Minnesota Twins With Write-Up 1:00PM in MLB Betting Al Capone, I saw the Yahoo write up too. I was also confused about how a pitcher can get shut out. Regardless, some decent angles here and good value on Twins at +230. I'm on it. View Post \| View Thread	BentleySports	28	September 26, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NYY @ Minnesota Twins With Write-Up 1:00PM in MLB Betting How is he on short rest? he pitched Friday. Are you saying short rest because its a day game? View Post \| View Thread	BentleySports	28	September 26, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Going for 3rd road dog upset in a row Cubs@Giants and reasons why... in MLB Betting I like the pick but your Bumgarner stat is way off- you need to count the innings pitched in the minors- counting those, here are the totals: 2009: 272 (includes winter ball) 2010: 193 View Post \| View Thread	Gilberto	12	August 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB Betting System in Website Promotions Friend request sent, would like to have a look at the system. Thanks! View Post \| View Thread	Pricetopher	234	July 19, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WHERE AND HOW TO IMPROVE?? in MLB Betting I'd start by filling that empty OF slot. View Post \| View Thread	ashlandarrows22	14	April 25, 2011 View Post \| View Thread

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