LocalBets

Thurs April 7th:

Marlins 1st 5inn RL +0.5(-120)… I really wish I was on this game when you could have snagged the Fish at +140. That full game action is now down to just +110. But I believe their is still some value left in this game. And it’s in the 1st 5inn RL +0.5 as I only need to lay 35 cents on the dollar to put that half run in my back pocket. And I’m doing so by backing Adam Conley who is the Marlins best prospect in the rotation right now. He is a left handed young arm who throws low to mid 90’s consistency with good sink action as well. Not many hitters in this league have got extended looks at him just yet and that’s exactly why I’m valuing him early on…

A’s 1st 5inn (-120)… This is Mat Latos’s 5th team in just 3 years as teams just see no reason to keep him around after getting any type of extended look at him. A once top prospect who is making a living based on trying to recover from arm surgery about 5 years ago now. The he was with the Padres he threw 95+ mph since 2011 his fastball has declined each year and he now throws barely touching 90 consistently. Ventura and Latos were quoted as both being happy after his last spring start… "This is the best he's pitched this spring," said Ventura of Latos, who gave up three runs on five hits, while walking three and striking out three. "The biggest thing is he's getting ahead early, keeping it down. Before, he was leaving stuff up in the zone that was getting hit hard. If he's keeping it down and utilizing that curveball, he becomes tougher."

If you ask me that’s a lot of “IF’s” and getting excited about giving up 3 runs in while walking 3 on 5hits in a minimal exposure spring game is not too promising. Especially seeing he got torched for 23hits in just 13 innings this spring as hitters hit .404 off him. His whip was a awful 2.23 and in my book if this man is going to put 2+ baserunners on per inning it doesn’t look to good for him… And I didn’t even mention the A’s putting 7 lefties in the lineup today to go against that right arm of Latos. I’ll play the numbers here and roll with the A’s at home for sure…

Orioles(-131)… Fading fly ball pitcher Phil Hughes at HR friendly park in Baltimore. 5 out of 6 experts have the Twins picked to finish in last place in AL Central as their lineup is super weak…

**Memphis +9(-110)

Memphis has 7 losses, yes. But they have come vs competition that is a combined 102-39(72%) on the season. The Tigers haven’t lost any of those games by more than 10pts. Memphis also held a 74-73 lead vs Oklahoma with less than 2 minutes to play. 

Here are the records this season of SMU’s opponents prior to losing to by opts to 11-8 Temple.

11-10

11-8

12-5

5-12

9-11

11-9

16-5

5-16

11-8

15-6

16-5

13-7

5-17

10-8

10-11

8-14

14-6

182-158(54%) I’m just not impressed as much as the SOS ratings are giving them.

Temple was up by as much as 19pts on SMU midway through the 2H and exposed SMU forcing 14 turnovers and hitting 14 three’s. Memphis is an improved team this year especially with freshman sensation Dedric Lawson as  a big addition. Senior Shaw Goodwin helps provide the much needed big body in the middle to help alter some of those SMU 2pt shots, and Lawson’s 6’8’’ frame helps defend as well. Throw in a top 10 tempo (Memphis 77.4 possessions per game) and players that can shoot the jump shot (102 three’s made by Lawson, Tarrant Jr, Burrell & Woodson combined), and SMU may get more than the spreads suggest they should bargain for. SMU has played against a team inside the top 10 in possessions per game ZERO times that I counted in the last 2 seasons. I’m skeptical on how they will get back up for this game with that in mind as well as understanding and undefeated season is now NO LONGER on top of no NCAA tourney for them this year. A Memphis win here or even keeping a close game is a must for the importance of their tourney resume and I expect a full effort from them…

**South Carolina -7(-110)

Most bettors are going to see that Bama beat the Gamecocks by 23pts just 17 days ago. But let’s look into the why… Riley Norris, decided to have a career best game from behind the arc, shooting 8 for 11. Hard to beat any team in D1 within a 20 minute span when a certain player can shoot with such success. As a matter of fact that was the only game Norris made more than 2 three’s all season long. 

Since that game RollTide has gone 1-3su with an atrocious assists/turnover ratio. Here are the A/TO’s in their last 4 games below:

7/12

9/10

11/12

8/16

35 assists and 50 turnovers is not a formula for winning by any stretch in a 4 game span. Mama’s assist/turnover ratio is dead last in the SEC and ranked #316. Only Kentucky is better than South Carolina on defense at assist/turnover ratio as South Carolina is #26 nationally. South Carolina has revenge on mind and is backed by home court advantage in the process.

***UNLV -4.5(-110)

The Aztecs have played only 2 teams this year with an assist/turnover ratio inside the top 25. vs Arkansas-Little Rock on the Aztecs home floor. A game the Aztecs lost 43-49 turning over the basketball 16 times. And on a neutral court for West Virginia, a game the Aztecs lost by 22pts in which they turned the ball over 21 times with just 3 assists. 

The Trojans are ranked #16 in A/TO ratio on defense while UNLV is even better at #11 (WVU is #1). I just fail to see how the Aztecs can find success with such a slow pace (#321 in possessions per game) in combination with awful eFG% (#319) and atrocious at protecting the ball (#324 in a/TO ratio). 

***North Texas +8(-110)

*North Texas ML(+330)

A game I have pegged as TOO MANY POINTS. As long as Jeremy Combs is playing in this game North Texas stands a strong chance at winning this game straight up. Combs is a walking double double who’s now managed a double double in his last 6 games. Rice as a team is one of the nations worst team defensively in terms of FG%. They rank #347 in the nation in eFG% defense with only 4 teams putting a product on the court worse than their’s. No way this team should be laying this kind of number. In 16 lines games this season the Owls have been favored in just 2 of them and only 1 of those by more than -1.5pts. A game in which they lost SU vs UTSA as -5.5 favs. 

ML parlay on the following 2* to win 2.87*:

Ark-Little Rock ML(-375)

UNLV ML(—205)

South Carolina ML(-340)