luckychip

luckychip
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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 8, 2010
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR THURSDAY, JANUARY 7, 2010
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2010
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.

 

Personally, however, I'd favor the Lakers and be all over the under .. were it not for the fact that Artest's concussion, Gasol's hammy and their second game in a back-to-back render their recent predictive statistics meaningless -- might as well flip a coin!

 

16-2 so far thru a little over 40% of the season .. though that doesn't mean the regular season will finish 39-5, as we have no idea if the apparent predictive nature of this in-beta-testing method will hold throughout a full season .. and nothing about this topic is ever linear.

 

Nevertheless, at the moment, it's encouraging .. even if, as bad timing would have it, I'll lose access to these plays in mid-February .. if I lose my home.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR TUESDAY, JANUARY 5, 2010
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays .

There is ONE play for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR MONDAY, JANUARY 4, 2010
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.

 

However .. came close to picking ATL, but Jermaine O'Neal's hip injury clouds the issue.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR SUNDAY, JANUARY 3, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.

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luckychip 1
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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR SATURDAY, JANUARY 2, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 1, 2010
in NBA Betting
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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays . 

There are no plays for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here: Luckychip Plays . 

There are no plays for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here:  Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here:  Luckychip Plays .

 

There is ONE play for today.

 

(I was unavailable to present plays this past weekend .. fortunately there was only one .. and it lost!)

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here:   Luckychip Plays .

There are NO plays for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2009
in NBA Betting

Plays are no-charge and found here:  Luckychip Plays.

There is ONE play for today.

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created a topic LUCKYCHIP PLAYS FOR MONDAY, 12/21/2009
in NBA Betting
Plays are no-charge and found here:  Luckychip Plays .

There is ONE play for today.
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created a topic Luckychip Plays For Sunday, 12/20/2009
in NBA Betting
Plays are no-charge and found here:  Luckychip Plays .

There are no plays for today.
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created a topic Luckychip System Picks For Monday, August 17, 2009
in MLB Betting
8/17/09
 
KC v CHW ... CHW by 2 or more runs.  Currently at about -125.
 
Upside:
Lots of HRs hit in this park, and the Royals relievers have not only given up a lot of runs lately, but a lot of HRs too.  Since the Sox have been hitting HRs lately, well, this could get ugly in the later innings.  The Sox relievers have been striking people out lately, so less chances for KC on base.  The Sox, on the other hand, have been on a total bases tear.  Buehrle isn't walking many, despite his higher than usual recent ERA, and he lasts longer than most.
 
Downside:
The Royals relievers have been striking people out of late despite surrendering HRs.  The Sox aren't stealing many bases, so they're not doing as much as others to manufacture runs, probably because they rely on the HR so much.  The Sox are a bit error prone lately, but it's hard to figure how much that could be at play here.  Buehrle needs to get some of that perfection factor back.  His recent K ratio is somewhat low.
 
Key:
If the Sox hitters are hot, it could be a long night for Royals pitchers.
 
General Statistical Prediction: CHW 8.30, KC 4.66.
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replied to Interesting Winning Statistic On The Runline
in MLB Betting
Quote Originally Posted by underrated:

WTF is 'manner'.
 
I could probably have been clearer .. but what I meant was that the away starting pitcher had to have three games under his belt this season as an AWAY starting pitcher, and the home starting pitcher had to have three games under his belt this season as a HOME starting pitcher.  If the pitchers lack experience in a season, as they do at the very beginning, I don't include those games in the analysis.
 
Also, now that you mention it, the same is true with regard to the relief pitching, so when I say the most recent 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching for the away team, that means the past recent 9 to 11 utilizations AWAY from home, and for the home team that's the 9 to 11 recent past utilizations at HOME.  I do, however, allow a few of the most recent games at the opposite venue to be considered.  This method of determining the strength of the aspect in question was all derived by scientific trial and error.
 
Interesting is that I don't average an entire season, or average the most recent with the past, or anything like that to asses the strength of a given aspect.  Only the most recent is of value.
 
With baseball, it's more true than with any other sport, that a team -- its hitting, fielding, starting pitcher(s), and relief pitching -- isn't who they've been throughout according to their won-loss record, they are who they've been in the last week or so.
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created a topic Interesting Winning Statistic On The Runline
in MLB Betting
I've crunched the numbers for all of last regular season and this one to-date, and I've come up with an interesting 19-5 winning algorithm.
 
It goes like this:
 
If both pitchers have pitched in at least two games this season for their current team in the manner (visitor or home) that they're pitching tonight plus one game of the opposite manner this season, or, if they have pitched in at least three games this season for their current team in the manner that they're pitching tonight (visitor or home), it can be either combination for either pitcher, just as long as both each total three games in either way,
 
And if the home team is favored better or equal to -175,
 
And if the runline is 9.5 or greater,
 
And if the average runs allowed per inning of the visiting relief pitching effort over the past 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching (throwing out the best and worst performance day) is greater than .4443,
 
And if the average runs allowed per inning of the home relief pitching effort over the past 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching (throwing out the best and worst performance day) is less than .4445,
 
Then, the home team wins by two or more runs 19 times out of 24 -- nearly 80% of the time!
 
Granted, the average point spread moneyline for the 19 wins is around -118, but PREDICTABLY winning thus 16 units at a cost of 5 -- 76.19% unit winning percentage -- is still pretty darn good even if you have to wait a long time for it to accumulate.
 
Interesting is that the hitters and starting pitchers and fielders -- none need to be considered with regard to specific statistics, as they're all rolled up into the Vegas odds-makers moneyline.
 
Only the relief pitching needs to be additionally considered as I have done, and only with the specific numeric values I've discovered.
 
If I don't additionally consider the relief pitching as I've indicated here, then there are 50 wins and 34 losses, and the percentage drops 20 points to 59.52%, the average point spread moneyline remaining about the same.  So you win 42.2 units at a cost of 34 units, only a 55.38% unit winning percentage.
 
When I tried to alter the results by comparing starting pitching and hitters like I did additionally with the relief pitchers, the results are actually worse than doing nothing at all, which surprised me.
 
Relief pitching makes a difference.
 
Amazing!
 
If I encounter one of these games from here on, I'll post it.
 
And there's nothing LV can do about it either, as they won't want to compensationally ramp up the moneyline completely out of sight or they'll take it in the shorts when the dog wins outright.
 
And .. if you'd like me to perform any particular analysis for you, just let me know.  I have some individual info on starting pitchers, but only team information on the rest.
 
Enjoy. 
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created a topic Testing A New System .. Found This Interesting
in MLB Betting
My new system picked FLA v WAS to be an OVER play at 8.0.
 
I checked the Team Experts here this morning, and they agreed 7-0.
 
Then later I checked again, and the bettors had upped the books to 8.5 .. and, at 8.5, my system didn't like the play.
 
Also, my system has picked MIL v LAD to also be an OVER play at 8.0.
 
However, what my computerized stats-based system doesn't "know" is that Kuroda has made what he calls significant adjustments to his pitching mechanics since his last start, which, if what he says he's done really works, this will likely be an under play instead.
 
Just goes to show that stats-only analysis is 66% at best.
 
Enjoy.
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