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Quote Originally Posted by webba: Only other game this good was Army over Houston....Army in same situation as Kentucky, going for best season ever....Army 2 losses and one wast at Oklahoma at OT,,,,Yikes? Army is really fine good.
Great to see you back, and I like Kentucky as well. |
m15525 | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GrandHustle: Thanks...been crushing!
Great call I'll try to pst more...I am back in the business, behind the counter.
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m15525 | 11 |
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A victory would give Kentucky just the third 10-win season in program history and first since 1977. They are coming of a brutal SEC schedule and are playing with 16 seniors looking for a win.
Kentucky Motivation 1. Chance for a 10-win season In the history of Kentucky football, only two prior teams have reached double-digit victories in a season.ear Bryant’s 1950 Wildcats — led by Babe Parilli and Bob Gain — went 11-1.Fran Curci’s 1977 Wildcats — led by Derrick Ramsey and Art Still — went 10-1.Mark Stoops’ 2018 Wildcats — led by Benny Snell and Josh Allen — will finish 10-3 with a win over James Franklin and the Nittany Lions.2. Chance to get Stoops off the bowl schneid.For all the good work Stoops has done in building UK from 2-10 in his first season (2013) to the current three straight bowl years, a post-season victory has so far eluded the coach.Two seasons ago, Kentucky sputtered in a 33-18 loss to Georgia Tech in the TaxSlayer Bowl.Last year, a late UK two-point conversion try failed and the Cats fell 24-23 to Northwestern in the Music City Bowl.Overall, Kentucky has lost in its last four bowls. You don’t want to become known as a program — or a head coach — who doesn’t win in the postseason.“We’ve gone to two straight bowl games and haven’t gotten a win,” Stallings says. “It does not feel good when you work this hard throughout the whole season and get a big accomplishment of making a bowl game and you ... lose it.”3. Chance to beat a football “brand name.”As college football identities go, Penn State is as “old money” as the Rockefellers.When Tuesday’s game kicks off, the Nittany Lions will be making their 49th bowl appearance. Conversely, Kentucky will be playing in only its 18th bowl game.For UK, beating an old-line “football school” in a New Year’s Day bowl would be a stamp of pigskin legitimacy.“I have a lot of respect for a program like Penn State — they have a lot of really good history,” Kentucky senior tight end C.J. Conrad says. “For us, to not have that much history with Kentucky football, it would mean a lot for us to get this win.”4. Chance to restore legacy with UK fans.Kentucky’s midseason offensive doldrums — five straight games without scoring 20 points from Oct. 6 through Nov. 10 — and the dispiriting 24-7 loss to Tennessee in the season’s 10th game combined to take a lot of fan joy out of a memorable UK football season.An impressive win in a New Year’s Day bowl over Penn State would restore much of what was lost with the Big Blue Nation.Says Conrad: “I want to leave (Kentucky) on a positive note.”5. Chance for a “senior” statement.The Citrus Bowl will be thefinal college game for the most significant class of Kentucky football seniors since the 2007 class of Andre Woodson, Wesley Woodyard, etc.Also bowing out will be star junior running back Snell — who has already announced he will enter his name in the 2019 NFL Draft.To see how much going out with a bowl victory means to the departing UK players, one need only look at Allen.The consensus First Team All-America spent his December traveling the country receiving national defensive player of the year awards. The outside linebacker/rush end is now seen as a possible top-five pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.In the zeitgeist of 2018, his is the profile of the kind of player who sits out bowl games.Josh Allen will be playing for Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl.“Finishing with my team,” Allen says. “It was something I always stayed true to. ... I am going to finish with my team and make history.”For UK and its players, this Citrus Bowl matters. It matters very much. TAKE KEntucky +7Read more here: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mark-story/article223742295.html#storylink= Read more here: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mark-story/article223742295.html#storylink=cpy Read more here: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mark-story/article223742295.html#storylink=cpy |
m15525 | 11 |
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Oh well... Lock it in at 10. Still great value! Let's go Owls!
GL! |
m15525 | 35 |
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Quote Originally Posted by m15525: sorry....I meant looks like "more" nova pressure
Alright let's see what happens in the next 15mins... Looks like not nova pressure is coming in as we speak |
m15525 | 35 |
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Alright let's see what happens in the next 15mins... Looks like not nova pressure is coming in as we speak
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m15525 | 35 |
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You can grab a 10. I still think that it will creep up a little more, obviously a win @ 10.5 vs a push at 10 is huge. I think the cap will be 10.5
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m15525 | 35 |
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Quote Originally Posted by QMICH: TEMPLE ONE OF THE BIGGEST PUBLIC PLAYS SO FAR TODAY AT AROUND 80%! Tell mat at 6:45 thats its a public play. The public doesn't bet against #1 teams on tv laying this low of an amount, the public doesn't bet this early in the day.
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m15525 | 35 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jroc1247: Cats win by 12+ man. Book it! +12... i'll book it...call me.
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m15525 | 35 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JefCostello: I meant further up from here. I see pressure building at 9.5, it will go, be patient.
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m15525 | 35 |
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You need a lifetime of good plays...one pick will bail you out today, but next week you'll be posting the same thing.
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Alomar | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JefCostello: Honestly I only see the line going down. It's 9.5 now. I'd love to see it hit 10, but I don't know if it's going to happen. I'd say grab it now before it goes lower... I haven't spoken to a single person on Villanova... 9.5 is up...it opened at 8. Sit tight, it will go to 10 or more closer to game time. The public does not bet against #1 teams on TV laying single digits, they also wait until right before tip off to play.
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m15525 | 35 |
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Wait for at least a plus +10. It may not happen until 5 or 6PM....be patient, the public will back the number team on national TV, but sit and wait it out.
I am aware some sharp money hit Nova early at 8, but don't sweat that. It was sharp money but not big money.
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m15525 | 35 |
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If the line gets to +10.5, I will be playing on the Temple Owls at home tonight versus Villanova.
The Owls have had moderate attendance this year, but tonights game vs city series rival Villanova has been sold out for months (long before Villanova's #1 ranking. Though Villanova's recent accent to the #1 rank has definitely put the icing on the cake for the games media hype, its the situational comparison & revenge angles...and possible value... that has me liking Temple a lot if we get to 10.5. If you read my post last week, when I faded Temple and played S. Fla, that play had roots that grew from tonights match-up. Not only is Temple seeking double revenge here, but they are also playing against a Nova freshman star recruit, who shunned Temple in a dramatic series of events prior to this season. Jaylen Brunson, a coveted 5 start recruit who had been a shoe in recruit for the Owls decided to go across the "street" to Nova and didn't even visit the Temple campus. The spat began when Temple had allegedly hired Jaylen's dad, Rick, a former Temple B-ball standout & TU alum as an assistant coach...but on the same day it was announced Brunson would join the Temple coaching staff that it was revealed that Brunson was being charged with an alleged sexual assault in a Michigan newspaper. It was reported later that week that Temple was forced to withdraw the job offer to Rick based on these events. It was shortly after the job was taken off the table, that Jaylen decided to snub Temple (and even a long scheduled visit to it's campus...while he was in the city visiting Nova.) It has long been said that when two Big 5 city teams play, that you can toss the stats and teams overall records out the window. Though this makes no mathematical sense, it is strangely true. Temple, in this spot (against an elite team) especially at home recently has played off the charts. A quick look back to games a couple years back vs Duke, last year #1 Kansas and even this year vs SMU Temple has brought it to a different level. Temple has done this by playing a series of mini-games. Basically playing balls out 100% for four minute segments between tv time outs and not really thinking about the full game. Just win the 4 minutes, and move on. If Temple is able to win the first four minute battle here, I think they will have a real shot to win the game SU, as the crowd will be fueled with it's sold out crowd filled with bitterness toward Nova & Brunson. Nova is the better team on paper, no question, but Temple is capable here (as this in not the first time they are in the spot, and coach Dunphy has proven his ability to navigate his team best in the large underdog / high profile games...) City series, bit rivalry, extra 2 points (if we get to 10, the Brunson factor and what I believe will play as a 5 point HC advantage tonight... I will be on Temple U +10. Good Luck!
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m15525 | 35 |
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replied to
Possible play tonight CBB (will only happen if a line reaches a certain point.)
in College Basketball
It will probably happen later in the day, since its a national tv game and the public doesn't generally get down this early in the day.
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m15525 | 3 |
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created a topic
Possible play tonight CBB (will only happen if a line reaches a certain point.)
in College Basketball
Possible play tonight CBB (will only happen if a line reaches a certain point.)
As of now it is likely then line will get there, but I am going to sit on the sidelines until it does.
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m15525 | 3 |
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Here is a good way to use reverse line moves...
Always consider what it takes to move the line in the first place...what is the bookmakers exposure (risk.) Even the big books have low limits on CBB games...especially non televised games like Niagara, so one big bet (2,500 to 5,000) could move a line a few points (especially if the bet is made by a player they respect.) If you try to play wise guys on these games, you will lose your shirt doing it blindly. However, when you see a revers move on an NFL game....now your talking about major amounts of cash to move a line. So a bookmaker is gonna be real careful on moving the line....so a reverse move like this is an indication of a line to go with. Multiply this by 10 if its an NFL Sunday or Monday Night game (or Super Bowl.) Sometimes, even a college football primetime games (and even some hoops games) have higher betting limits....as the books know they need some wise guy chunks to even out the public action (that is always exponentially higher on big tv games.) So, basically, there is not really any public action on the lesser games and should be ignored (if playing them blindly.) Put more faith into reverse line moves in big tv games.
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DegenerateBets | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kimoinsd808: It's hard to play amateur sports psychologist and guess how these kids will play on any given day. People put waaaay to much stock in these situational "flat" spots. Your write up sounded really good and it's apparent you convinced yourself and the sheep that tailed you blindly. Maybe you all should've put more time and research on how Temple was approaching this game as well. A simple quote that D-loc post Ed should've given you all pause. It's a long game, but there's no way you guys can be feeling good about this bet right now. Not sure where this came from, but 1) your dead wrong, these flat spots are a major factor in playing college games 2) The second half of my post had nothing to do with psychology 3) if you are going to make a post like this, if you don't want to make an behind of yourself again, wait until the play loses to post. |
m15525 | 77 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Joshjames878: Way to prove you wrong person Not sure where this came from, but 1) your dead wrong, these flat spots are a major factor in playing college games 2) The second half of my post had nothing to do with psychology 3) if you are going to make a post like this, if you don't want to make an behind of yourself again, wait until the play loses to post.
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m15525 | 77 |
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Quote Originally Posted by UglyKidJoe: Lucky as fak. Temple was like shooting at fish in a barrel. Amazing USF could hang against such a hot day for Temple. Your wet dream GOY had a happy ending. Congrates. Yep!...TU did shoot the lights out & USF still covered.
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m15525 | 77 |
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