Defense HUH? How did that work out for you last Year 49ers D farsuperior to Ravens D wasnt it ?

YUP cost me $2200 CASH bet upfront with local

worst defense ever to win a superbowl and it was horrific 2006 colts Peyton Mannings Colts vs Bears in the Rain in Miami

pretty simple aint it when your sold on one side

DUH?

In an earlier article we touched upon the concept of Yards Per Point (YPP) and how it relates to the NFL. Those who have not read the earlier article can do so here Football Betting With Yards Per Point.

Now, we'll look at several betting systems using YPP and how football bettors can use these figures to their advantage.

The first system was one that first came to prominence in the mid 1980s and was known as the Dudley Method. The system was popularized in the now out-of-print book "The Winner's Guide to Pro Football Betting," by Art Glantz and Leigh Cohn. The premise of the system was to use the last four games each teams had played to create your predicted point spread on the game.

Lets use a hypothetical game between Minnesota and Detroit. In its past four games, the Vikings have gained 1,345 yards and allowed 1,352 on defense, while scoring 91 points and allowing 78. Detroit has gained 1,291 yards on offense and allowed 1,510. The Lions have scored 86 points, while giving up 111.

The first step is to create an Offensive YPP figure for both teams, which are 14.78 (1,345/91) for Minnesota and 15.01 (1291/86) for Detroit.
The second step is to create a defensive average for each team, which is merely diving the total yards allowed by four. For Minnesota, the defensive average is 338 (1352/4), while for Detroit its 377.5(1510/4).
Take each team's defensive average and divide by the opposition's YPP figure to get a predicted score. Minnesota's predicted score will be 25.54, which is (377.5/14.78). Detroit's predicted score will be 22.52 (338/15.01).
Subtract 1.5 points from the road team and give the home team an additional 1.5 points for the predicted score. If the Vikings are the home team, our predicted score will be Minnesota 27.04-21.02. If Detroit is home, our predicted score is Minnesota 24.04-24.02.

The one problem with this method is that it doesn't take a team's defensive YPP into consideration, but it is still a useful tool for short-term tendencies. It is used best in conjunction with another YPP method, such as the next one we'll look at.
The Total Dudley YPP Method
This system is quite similar to the Dudley Formula, in that it also uses a four-game average, but uses a team's defensive YPP rating in predicting the outcome of games. We'll use the same teams and statistics from the earlier example.

The first step is to add Minnesota's offensive yards gained to Detroit's yards allowed and Minnesota's points scored to Detroit's points allowed. This will give us 2,855 (1,345+1,510) and 202 (91+111).
The second step is to add Detroit's yards gained to Minnesota's yards allowed and Detroit's points scored to Minnesota's points allowed. This gives totals of 2,643 (1,291+1,352) and 164 (86+78).
The third step is to create an adjusted offensive YPP for both teams. For Minnesota, divide 2,855 by 202 to get 14.13. For Detroit, divide 2,643 by 164 to get 16.12.
The fourth step is to change our yardage figures into a per-game average. Simply divide Minnesota's offensive yardage figure (2,855) by eight to get 356.88, which is Minnesota's predicted yards gained. Detroit's expected yards gained of 2,643 divided by eight is 330.38. (Remember we're using eight because we have both four games of offensive yards and four games of defensive yards.)
The next step is to divide Minnesota's predicted yards of 356.88 by its adjusted offensive YPP of 14.13 to get a predicted score of 25.26. Dividing Detroit's predicted yards of 330.38 by its adjusted offensive YPP yields a predicted score of 20.49.


Subtract 1.5 points from the road team and give the home team an additional 1.5 points for the predicted score. ( we do not subtract anything here it's a neutral site)

As you can see, the Vikings rate nearly two points better with this method and the predicted score is several points less. These are because of the inclusion of Minnesota's defensive YPP rating, which is well above average.

Most bettors using these, or any YPP system, generally look for a difference of at least five points between the predicted outcome and the point spread before making a play.

Remember, there is no correct way or incorrect way to use YPP numbers. You can use them short-term, as these two systems do, or use season statistics. Both will give the football bettor a different method of looking at the teams playing a particular game.

Those who are spreadsheet savvy could probably write an Excel program to cut down on the time doing the calculations. Still, Yards Per Point is a fairly quick method of looking at the games and is a statistic used by many top football bettors.


GREAT CHART to use for all stats TOTALS for season

https://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...e/seasontype/2

penalties total and total yards per game , 1st downs by rushing and passing 3rd downs 4th downs

percentages

WAY lots of math needed here using all this stuff might take you few hours with pen and paper and calculator

I belive use the K I S S method Keep It Simply Stupid

YOUR Gut instincts will be more accuarte and close your ears and eyes to Media reports hype over hype and any other EX football players coments who always talk about this player vs this player matchups etc... LIKE when will they learn IT"s not Manning VS Wilson it's 22 guys vs 22 guys

or 11 vs 11 at a time 22 men on field every play switching players in n out as needed

NOW the 100% stat I just discovered this year 3rd conversion % for season highest team % wins the minimum required is 42% for season

Broncos averaged 46.3% Seahwks 37.3%  Broncos have 9% edge

post season both two games forgeddabouttit it's worse

Denv. 61.5%   Seahwks 35.7%  25.8% edge to Broncos

another fooking fact IF your banking on Seahawks to cover and lose by 2 points better go eat some stinky feet cheese NO low point dog ahs evered covered the spread in superbowl history they either won huge or got creameated or as in Steelers + 2 1/2 vs Packers lost by 6 points

IN Otherword buying points will only LOSE more money for YOU YOU like Seahwks to COVER and Lose the game your odds are 0 even if it goes to 3

NOW do the work above and wait till sunday to place your wagers any wagers placed before hand are almost guranteed LOSSES

Someone Saturaday night will do something breaking the law or create a negative persona against his team and his head will be out of game causing HIM to give up a big play that will cost his team the win !

THE players known to be party animals with brash characters will destroy their lives and thier teams chances

IF it happens could be anything like bar fight and shooting or stabbing causing arrest to illegall possession or use of or buying drugs or the old time prostutution bust!

Football Betting With Yards Per Point

In many ways, sports gamblers are a step ahead of the general public when it comes to statistics. Football bettors have used Yards Per Pass Attempt as a measure of rating team's passing game for years, long before it became a generally used statistic by everyone.

Sports bettors who wager on college football or basketball have used Average Opponent's Power Rating for decades, and the stat is now commonly used by the public under the guise of Strength of Schedule.

But there's another statistic that football bettors have used for years that hasn't caught on with the public yet and that is Yards Per Point. Yards Per Point is a quick and easy method that lets football bettors access the offensive and defensive strength of a particular team.

It's important to note that while Yards Per Point can be used for college football, its primary use is for the NFL, as there is less of a difference in the relative strength of schedule in the professional game than there is in the college game.
How Yards Per Point Works
To calculate the Yards Per Point of any team you will need several statistics that are readily available; the points the team has scored and allowed, as well as the offensive yards gained and the defensive yards allowed by the team.

To get the team's offensive Yards Per Point simply divide the offensive yards gained by the number of points scored. (If the statistics available to you are per game, you can simply use those, as it will yield the same result as using season statistics.

In 2007, the New England Patriots averaged 411.2 offensive yards per game and scored 36.8 points per game. To get New England's offensive Yards Per Point (YPP) take 411.2 and divide by 36.8 to get a total of 11.17. What this means is that the Patriots averaged one point for every 11.17 yards they gained.

One the other hand, a team like the 4-12 Kansas City Chiefs averaged 276.8 yards of offense per game and scored an average of 14.1 points per game. Kansas City's offensive YPP is then 19.63 (276.8/14.1 = 19.63). Therefore, Kansas City scored an average of one point for every 19.63 yards gained.

Naturally, a low number is best for offense, as the fewer yards the team needs to travel before scoring, the better.

Defensive YPP figures are calculated in the same manner, except that yards allowed and points allowed are used. New England allowed 288.3 yards and 17.1 points per game, so their defensive YPP would be 16.86. Kansas City allowed 319.4 yards per game and surrendered 20.9 points per game and would have a defensive YPP rating of 15.28.
Uses of Yards Per Point
There is really no limit to the uses of YPP calculations. Some bettors will use season statistics, while others will use just statistics from the past four to six weeks. Others, still, will use both.

One of the most popular methods for using YPP is simply taking the yards allowed by each team and dividing by the opposition's offensive YPP to come up with a quick predicted score.

For example, using our Kansas City and New England statistics from above, we see that the Chiefs allow and average of 319.4 defensive yards per game. Divide that figure by New England's offensive YPP rating of 11.17 and we get a quick figure of 28.6, which is New England's predicted score.

New England allowed 288.3 yards per game, which divided by Kansas City's offensive YPP number of 19.63 would yield a predicted score of 14.7. Therefore, our quick YPP figures make New England 13.9 points better than Kansas City with a predicted total of 43.3 points.

In future articles we'll look at more uses of Yards Per Point in action, but now you should have a decent understanding of the concept and may want to do some experimenting on your own.

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