NFL_Sharp

Overall Rankings:
1 Houston
2 New Orleans
3 New York Jets
4 Baltimore
5 New England
6 Seattle
7 Tennessee
8 Philadelphia
9 Denver
10 San Francisco
11 Dallas
12 Indianapolis
13 Arizona
14 Green Bay
15 Detroit
16 Cleveland
17 San Diego
18 Carolina
19 Kansas City
20 Cinicnnati
21 Washington
22 Tampa Bay
23 Buffalo
24 Minnesota
25 Chicago
26 Miami
27 Atlanta
28 Pittsburgh
29 New York Giants
30 Oakland
31 St. Louis
32 Jacksonville

Offensive Rankings:
1 Denver
2 San Diego
3 Green Bay
4 Philadelphia
5 New England
6 Atlanta
7 New Orleans
8 Indianapolis
9 Tennessee
10 Detroit
11 Dallas
12 Seattle
13 Houston
14 Minnesota
15 New York Jets
16 Baltimore
17 Washington
18 Chicago
19 Miami
20 Carolina
21 Pittsburgh
22 Buffalo
23 Arizona
24 Cinicnnati
25 Oakland
26 Cleveland
27 San Francisco
28 Kansas City
29 Tampa Bay
30 New York Giants
31 St. Louis
32 Jacksonville

Defensive Rankings:
1 San Francisco
2 Houston
3 New York Jets
4 Baltimore
5 Cleveland
6 Kansas City
7 Tampa Bay
8 Arizona
9 New Orleans
10 Seattle
11 Cinicnnati
12 Tennessee
13 New England
14 Dallas
15 Carolina
16 Indianapolis
17 Philadelphia
18 Detroit
19 Washington
20 New York Giants
21 Buffalo
22 Denver
23 Miami
24 Oakland
25 Chicago
26 Green Bay
27 Minnesota
28 Pittsburgh
29 Jacksonville
30 St. Louis
31 San Diego
32 Atlanta

Best of luck to everyone this week!  Hope we all make some money

Official Program Plays were 2-1 in Week 4.  The non-official play (axed when Glennon was named starter in TB) that will be counted toward record lost:

Overall:  2-2, -0.10 units
Sides:  1-2, -1.10 units
Totals:  1-0, + 1.00 units

A lot of plays this week, much more than the average for the program.  Typically there we be around 5-6 sides per week and 1 total.  This week there are 8 sides and 2 totals.

Week 5 Plays:
Jacksonville +11.5 (-110)
Philadelphia +1.5 (-110)
Detroit +7 (-110)
San Diego -4.5 (-110)
Houston +6.5 (-110)
New York Jets +9.5 (-110)
New Orleans +1 (-110)
Baltimore +3 (-120)
Buffalo/Cleveland Under 41 (-110)
Kansas City/Tennessee Under 39 (-110)

Like I said, a lot of plays this week.  No 2+ units plays yet, but the strongest appear to be Kansas City/Tennessee Under, San Diego, and Houston.

Projected Week 5 Scores:
Buffalo 15 @ Cleveland 22
Jacksonville 19 @ St. Louis 22
New Orleans 25 @ Chicago 19
Philadelphia 25 @ New York Giants 19
Seattle 20 @ Indianapolis 23
Baltimore 25 @ Miami 19
New England 22 @ Cincinnati 16
Kansas City 13 @ Tennessee 25
Detroit 28 @ Green Bay 25
Carolina 21 @ Arizona 22
San Diego 32 @ Oakland 23
Denver 26 @ Dallas 26
Houston 15 @ San Francisco 13
New York Jets 24 @ Atlanta 26

Also, Tampa Bay would not have been a play if it had been made known Glennon would be behind center. I will leave the play posted above and count it against units won/lost and the overall record posted here (as I know buying back a posted play usually doesn't go over well) but as for my own personal system records, it will not be counted.

I just wanted to post in case anyone hadn't bet yet and was considering following these plays. As I said, I will keep it in the records and profit/loss her on Covers, but it would not be a system play. QB injuries/replacements are the only ones that will have this affect on the system. In my personal opinion, only injuries to QBs should cause line movements; movements caused by any injuries at any other position are simply value added to the opposite side of the line - in my experience, there are no exceptions to this.

DEFENSE
1 Kansas City
2 Houston
3 New York Jets
4 Tennessee
5 Cincinnati
6 San Francisco
7 Seattle
8 Cleveland
9 New England
10 Tampa Bay
11 Pittsburgh
12 New Orleans
13 Carolina
14 Miami
15 Baltimore
16 New York Giants
17 Denver
18 Indianapolis
19 Philadelphia
20 Dallas
21 Arizona
22 Detroit
23 St. Louis
24 Jacksonville
25 Green Bay
26 Washington
27 Oakland
28 Buffalo
29 Atlanta
30 Minnesota
31 Chicago
32 San Diego

OFFENSE
1 Denver
2 San Diego
3 Atlanta
4 Buffalo
5 Chicago
6 Seattle
7 Green Bay
8 Oakland
9 Philadelphia
10 New England
11 Detroit
12 Dallas
13 Indianapolis
14 New Orleans
15 New York Jets
16 Cincinnati
17 Washington
18 Carolina
19 Tampa Bay
20 Miami
21 Baltimore
22 San Francisco
23 New York Giants
24 Houston
25 St. Louis
26 Pittsburgh
27 Tennessee
28 Minnesota
29 Kansas City
30 Arizona
31 Cleveland
32 Jacksonville

OVERALL
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 New York Jets
4 New England
5 Cincinnati
6 New Orleans
7 Houston
8 Tampa Bay
9 San Francisco
10 Carolina
11 Indianapolis
12 Philadelphia
13 Kansas City
14 Tennessee
15 Atlanta
16 Miami
17 Buffalo
18 Dallas
19 San Diego
20 Green Bay
21 Baltimore
22 Pittsburgh
23 New York Giants
24 Detroit
25 Oakland
26 Chicago
27 Washington
28 Cleveland
29 St. Louis
30 Arizona
31 Minnesota
32 Jacksonville

Thanks to all and best of luck to you guys.

Holding - I suppose all we can do is wait and see.  Good luck to you this week and this season.

rosterjunkies - Will do.  Good luck this year.

Thanks guys - best of luck to you all as well.

BYB -  Seattle 20.42 @ Houston 20.31 

System expects a solid ground game from Houston and a lot of heat on Wilson (much more so than vice versa on Schaub, by more than double).  Clear passing advantage to Seattle though, even considering the aforementioned pressure on Wilson. 

Good luck this week.

Also, here are the final two projected scores Week 4:

Washington 23 @ Oakland 27
Philadelphia 18 @ Denver 34

No plays in either.  Final card is the one listed in the original post.  Best of luck this week to all.

Thanks Alta - good luck to you as well.

Same system as last year - posted record here on Covers was 26-18 on sides and 8-5 on totals. Overall record 34-23 (59.7%) - not sure on the units, but I believe a good majority of the higher unit plays won. So, I'm guessing units were around +15 to +20 (if anyone wants to check that, please let me know if you do). The unposted record was better than the above 60%, and I expect these plays to hit upwards of 65% (with a relatively high statistical significance). I know that number seems crazy, but it's what I expect, statistically. Under 60% would honestly shock me. I don't say that facetiously or arrogantly, I just want to fully disclose my expectations. Please wait a few weeks to see how the plays are doing before criticizing and attacking the previous expectation.

Again, full disclosure here - the system ideally would need four weeks of data to become become fully operational, but I'm running these off of only three; I think that's enough for at least above average accuarcy - but long term would not expect these to hit at the +65% like the rest of the season's games. I don't have enough data to give a more exact expectation for these, but I'd like to guess somewhere between 50% and 65%.

Enough said, below are the picks.

Week 4 Plays:
Tampa Bay -3 (+100)
Detroit -3 (-105)
New York Jets +4.5 (-110)
Chicago/Detroit Over 47.5 (-110)

All of the above are 1 unit plays. There may be plays involving the Denver/Oakland games next week, and will run the projections on those after tonight's game.


The following are the system's projections for the games. Some projections below will seem to necessitate a play (i.e. the NYG/KC game), but the plays are not based on these projected scores. They're based on the projected stats that underly the scores. I post them just as a reference for trends, patterns, etc, although they will usually be fairly accurate (in the absence of an unusual amount of fluke plays - pick 6's, red zone fumbles, special teams touchdowns, etc). Last year, teams projected to win actually ended up winning somewhere in the high 70 percents I believe. If someone wants to thread through last year's posts for an exact number, please post it when/if you do. Also, for more explanation/color on the score/ATS-play disparity or any other questions, I answered a good number throughout the year last season if you don't mind searching back for those threads - there's only one thread per week. I don't have near the free time I did previously, so will have a harder time getting in-depth on topics or questions brought up here, but will do my best to answer any and all.

Sorry for the long-winded post - and again, if it came across as arrogant or condescending, I promise that wasn't and is never my intention. Best of luck to everyone this year!

Week 4 Projections:
San Francisco 24 @ St. Louis 19
Pittsburgh 17 @ Minnesota 22
Seattle 20 @ Houston 20
New York Giants 10 @ Kansas City 25
Baltimore 23 @ Buffalo 28
Cincinnati 18 @ Cleveland 16
Arizona 14 @ Tampa Bay 27
Chicago 23 @ Detroit 28
Indianapolis 28 @ Jacksonville 16
New York Jets 19 @ Tennessee 20
Dallas 28 @ San Diego 29
New England 21 @ Atlanta 22
Miami 17 @ New Orleans 24

Again, best of luck to all this week and this season

Sorry - Sides records should be 37-22-2 and Totals 7-5

CAR

21	@	NO	21
NYJ	8	@	BUF	23
CLE	17	@	PIT	23
PHI	23	@	NYG	16
HOU	23	@	IND	16
TB	14	@	ATL	34
BAL	23	@	CIN	13
CHI	22	@	DET	19
JAC	14	@	TEN	19
ARI	6	@	SF	24
GB	24	@	MIN	16
KC	5	@	DEN	32
STL	10	@	SEA	31
MIA	20	@	NE	22
OAK	22	@	SD	16
DAL	27	@	WAS	31

1

Seattle
2	Green Bay
3	Baltimore
4	Carolina
5	Oakland
6	San Francisco
7	Denver
8	St. Louis
9	Philadelphia
10	Chicago
11	Minnesota
12	New Orleans
13	Washington
14	Dallas
15	New England
16	Cinicnnati
17	Pittsburgh
18	Buffalo
19	Atlanta
20	Miami
21	Tennessee
22	San Diego
23	New York Jets
24	Houston
25	Detroit
26	Jacksonville
27	Kansas City
28	Cleveland
29	Tampa Bay
30	Arizona
31	New York Giants
32	Indianapolis

CARNYJCLEPHIHOUTBBALCHIJACARIGBKCSTLMIAOAKDAL

21	@	NO	21
8	@	BUF	23
17	@	PIT	23
23	@	NYG	16
23	@	IND	16
14	@	ATL	34
23	@	CIN	13
22	@	DET	19
14	@	TEN	19
6	@	SF	24
24	@	MIN	16
5	@	DEN	32
10	@	SEA	31
20	@	NE	22
22	@	SD	16
27	@	WAS	31

Sorry for the late posting, been extremely busy lately.  Sides on the season are 24-14 and Totals are 6-4.  Good luck to everyone this week. 

Week 17 Plays:

2** Philadelphia +7
2** Houston -6.5
2** Miami +10.5
Carolina +5
Buffalo -3 (-120)
Jacksonville +4
2** Baltimore/Cincinnati Under 41
Houston/Indianapolis Under 46.5
Green Bay/Minnesota Under 46

Final add:  Houston -7.5  --  would be a 2** at -7 or less.

Sorry, I haven't had the time to post lately.  I'm adding Tennessee +11. May have one more before kickoff.

Thanks to everyone for all the luck.  Good luck to you all as well.

DEFENSE
1	Tennessee
2	Cinicnnati
3	New York Jets
4	Miami
5	Arizona
6	St. Louis
7	San Francisco
8	New England
9	New Orleans
10	Houston
11	Philadelphia
12	Green Bay
13	Denver
14	Seattle
15	Buffalo
16	San Diego
17	Baltimore
18	Oakland
19	Atlanta
20	Tampa Bay
21	Carolina
22	Pittsburgh
23	Detroit
24	Cleveland
25	Chicago
26	Dallas
27	Kansas City
28	Minnesota
29	Washington
30	Indianapolis
31	Jacksonville
32	New York Giants