nness75

It would be interesting to mike the refs on the field and when they go to the review booth to really hear what is being said.  It does seem that sometimes the refs in the NFL are being controlled by a higher power, you also forgot to mention the fact that there were 4 flags in a row thrown when Denver was marching the ball inside the 2 minute warning before half. 

Looks like the Cubs are destined to lose this one, 3 innings in a row and they can't get 1 run in.  I think it's funny that Pinella is retiring after this year, pretty sure if he didn't say that he would have been gone before the end of the year.

Great thread!

I have to say that there is no sure thing in gambling, but you have to like the fact the the G-men are starting to hit the ball with Pat Burrell now in their lineup, which allows Sandoval to hit in different spots with less pressure than hitting 3 or 4 in the order.  Also, Lincecum has had a few shaky outings before his last start, but all pitchers go through ups and downs in a year and Lincecum seems to be back on the upswing.

I do think that SF will in this game to win the series, but that juice is too heavy for me to take.

I'm gonna bet the under and hope Guthrie can produce a quality start and that Lincecum can go 7 or 8 innings and keep the O's to 1 or 2 runs.

Under 6 1/2

Anyone know what the wind is supposed to do at Wrigley field for this afternoons game?

Has anyone ever used projected starting pitching and bullpen numbers to project totals for baseball games?

Read an article a while ago where you take starters overall era and double it and subtract last 3 starts era, which will give you a projected era for their next outing.

I'm gonna use this number as well as projected innings pitched per outing and come up with a pitchers projected stat line for the start.  Then i'm gonna use their home/road and day/night splits to adjust the numbers and then come up with a statline for that start.  (Example: Based on the formula above Justin Verlander is projected to go 6 2/3 innings and give up 2 ER tonight)

After coming up with that, i apply the bullpen averages to these numbers and come up with a total amount of runs that team will give up.

Just wondering if anyone does this for total betting, and am interested in some feedback on how people determine who they bet on for baseball totals. 

Closers are so fucking selfish, put em in when it's tied and they don't care and blow the lead.  Put em in when in not's a save situation and they'll make it one, so they can get their almighty save on the record.  If i was a manager I would never put a closer in unless it's a save situation, because if it's not they do not give a fuck and will throw the ball right over the plate.  Don't want to use their good stuff unless it benefits them, what assholes!

After the last 2 nights for the Yanks pen it's hard to go with them in this situation, that's why i look for a good outing from Burnett.  He needs to pitch well to keep this from going to the pen, also Davis is a good young pitcher, just don't think that in NY he can deal w/ the pressure of starting in Yankee stadium.  Plus, NYY hit him hard last time out, look for more of the same in this game.  Burnett als o has a good record in the past against TB, which like i said earlier i look to continue this evening.  NYY want to get the bad taste of last nights loss out of their mouths, while TB has been anything but impressive, barely pulling out wins against subpar teams. NY is not a subpar team!

NYY ML

LA just swept SD last week, and are only -120 against the same Padres.  I know this seems like a trap, but i believe this is people giving Garland way too much respect.  He does have good numbers but they are based on 6 innings which leaves 3 innings for the Dodgers to do some damage.  Ortiz is not gonna scare anyone, but if he can go 5 to 6 innings i really like LA's chances with the way they are hitting the ball right now.  Plus it seems like LAD may have SD's number, the way SD has had SF's number this year.

LAD ML

SEA finally scores some runs against OAK and their pitching falls apart talk about being snakebit.  TOR on the other hand has been killing the ball lately and getting good pitching.  At some point SEA will put it together, it might as well be now, with Fister pitching and SEA finally scoring some runs I think this might be the perfect storm for them to come through tonight.  Meanwhile TOR has to come back down to earth at some point, and with Cecil on the hill and their bats traveling across the country this might be the spot. Gonna cross my fingers and say:

SEA ML

Gotta like Oakland in this matchup, they finally have their lineup back and are starting to hit the ball like early in the season.  Verlander has been on fire recently, but is prone to letdowns and i could see that happening tonight.  Braden had his letdown from the perfect game, if you consider going 8 innings a letdown and should be ready to go tonight.  After the way Detroit played yeaterday can't help but think the young players in that order are finally starting to catch up to them.

OAK ML

Even though this appears to be way out of line with AZ laying -150, there must be a reason.  I believe that AZ is gonna come out of their hitting slump at some point, it might as well be now.  Wellemeyer has pitched better, but after going 7 innings last outing can he really back that up with another good outing?  Kennedy on the other hand has pitched well all season and looks like a potential solid starter for years to come.  SF just finally got the monkey off their back last night beating SD, now they go on the road to face a team desperate for a win and some offense.

AZ ML

Two quality start type pitchers in this matchup, both Sanchez and Garcia are 6-7 inning type pitchers which makes that an even matchup.  I like the fact that the Marlins are facing some adversity with the Hanley situation, it seemed to bring them together yesterday and i look for that to continue today.  FLA also hits the lefties well which is the scenario tonight, STL on the other hand continues to struggle to score runs which could be exposed tonight by a FLA team that is starting to really hit the baseball.

FLA ML