OldHammy

@OldHammy

 Sorry for the typo -- OSU is #9 defending the 3

I'm still treading water at 13/13 after a 2/2 day Saturday

If you had action Saturday on ranked teams I hope you weren't on the underdogs  -- as I was on Oklahoma at Bama.  The favorites went 11/2 and two home dogs lost in the process.  I hope that trend continues Monday night with at least one game.

I just got Ken Pom's #30, 9/5 Ohio State -5 1/2 at #120. 8/6 Minnesota

OSU has played the 12 toughest schedule while Minnesota's schedule is a #107.  The only reason Minnesota's is that high is because they've now played 3 Big Ten teams, losing all three in routs.  Their best win is a home 59-56 win over #77 North Texas.  

Every one of OSU's 5 losses is to Ken Pom teams ranked #26 or better.  Their best win is an 85-65 rout of AP #10 Kentucky on a neutral court.

Even against the tough schedule OSU is #41, averaging 81.3 ppg while giving up 69.8 ppg.  Minnesota averages 14 less at 67.4 ppg and is #33 in giving up 65.1 ppg against the much weaker schedule.  

The rest of the stats are in OSU's favor, despite the big disparity in schedule strength.  OSU is a good shooting team except at the FT line (69.6%).  They are #30 from 3 pt range (38.1%) and #56 from 2 pt range (56.2%).  Minnesota is #298 from deep (30.1%), #120 from 2 pt range (53.3%) and a woeful #347 from the FT line (63.6%).

TO's are dead even at 15.3 but OSU is a better rebounding team against the much tougher schedule at 51.3% vs Minnesota's 49.2%.

OSU's defensive efficiency is much better at #34 compared to Minnesota's #108.  OSU is particularly stellar at defending the 3 (#( in defensive 3 pt fg%).

OSU is coming off an 80-72 home loss to MSU and should be fired up to bounce back and get a much needed road win here.  I don't think Minnesota can score enough to keep up with the buckeyes.

Caution warranted by I like 4 today.

We live in Tuscaloosa and I'll be at this game today, rooting hard against this play.  But I have to take undefeated Oklahoma +12 1/2 against Alabama.  Oklahoma has played a mediocre schedule but have won all three times they tested themselves against good teams (Michigan, Arizona and Louisville).  

But I think this is a tough matchup for us on several fronts.  Their leading scorer is a quick 6'5" shooting guard and their PG is also quick and is also a very capable scorer.  We struggle against teams with really good guards because Sears is not very quick and a defensive liability.  

Second, we get 45% of our points from beyond the arc and Oklahoma is #4 in the country, holding opposing teams to 27.4% from 3 pt range.  We're not shooting it as well from deep as we expected and when we've lost that's been one of the big problems.  Oklahoma is #13 in steals and too many TOs has also been a problem for us.  Sears averages almost 3 per game to go with his 4 assists per game.  That's the other place we've struggled in the 3 losses.  

Oklahoma shoots the ball well (36.7% from deep, 58.3% from 2 pt range and is #4 from the FT line at 81.4%).  We're #224 in committing an average of 17.8 fouls per game so we'll send them to the line too often.  We shoot 70.5% from the FT line and they commit almost 3 less fouls per game.  

We do have a height advantage and we're a better rebounding team.  We also have a tough matchup for them in 6'11" Grant Nelson who often brings the ball up the floor and can play any position on the team.  

If Oklahoma holds us to 30% or so from deep I don't see how we cover this line.  If we get to 36% or so, which we haven't done very often it could be a rout.

#73 12/1 St. Bonaventure -6 at #220 7/6 Fordham

Bonnies are excellent on defense, #9 in holding opposing teams to 61.2 ppg and #18 in holding team to 38.5% shooting from the field.  They are also #47 in blocking 8% of opposing teams' shots.  Fordham has played mostly cupcakes (#229 SOS vs Bonnies #128 SOS).  But Fordham still is #260, allowing opponents 15 more pts per game than St. Bonaventure against a much easier schedule (76.5 ppg).  

Fordham also doesn't protect the ball well at #235 in average TOs (18.5) while the Bonnies are #57 in causing TOs.  St. Bonaventure is #88 in rebounding percent vs Fordham's #177.  

High Point -1 at UNC Asheville

High Point is a really good, really well coached team who should win the conference.  They are #50 in offensive efficiency against a weak UNC Asheville defensive team at #255 in defensive efficiency.  They've played almost equal schedules and High Point is #77, holding opposing teams to 67.8 ppg while Asheville is #313, allowing 79.8 ppg.

HP is a better shooting team and they are about even rebounding the ball.

#114 10/3 Samford -12 1/2 at woeful #331 1/8 Western Carolina

Samford is on the way to winning their league.  They are #9 in 3 pt shooting percentage with three guys who shoot right at 50% and a 4th at 44.8%.  Samford has the #165 SOS while Western Carolina has managed only 1 win (#353 Bellarmine) against the #351 SOS.

Samford has wins over #115 ND State, #154 Utah Valley and #170 N. Alabama.  Samford is #13 in the country averaging 86.3 ppg against a much tougher schedule while W. Carolina averages 61.6 ppg.  Samford is the better shooting team (40.1% from deep, 55.6% from 2 pt range but only 69.7% from the FT line).  This compares to Western Carolina's #354 from deep (26.4%), #300 from 2 pt range (46.9%) and an even worse 67.5% from the Ft line than Samford.   This should be a rout if Samford shows up with even their B- game.

I have one today in the midst of a fun day of college football playoff games.

Furman/Western Carolina under 144 1/2.

Against the 5th easiest schedule strength in the country 1/7 Western Carolina is #346 in offensive efficiency.  Yikes!  They average 61.6 ppg, and for good reason.  They're #353 in 3 pt fg % (26.6%), #277 from 2 pt range (47.6%) and #332 from the FT line (64.6%).  Their defense is not quite as bad against the collection of cupcakes they've played (#216 in defensive efficiency).  It'll be tough against a Furman team that is #107 in defensive efficiency and allows opponents 66.1 ppg.  

Furman is good at both ends but also is not a great scoring team(#177, averaging 69.8 ppg).  They are #135 from 3 pt range at 34.2%, #59 from 2 pt range at 56.3% but awful from the FT line at 68.7%.  There shouldn't be a bunch of points at the FT line from these two teams.

They also both turn it over way too often and that can extend the time between baskets.  Furman is #222, committing 18.9 TOs a game and Western Carolina is awful at #360, averaging 24.5 TOs a game. 

The average game total for these two teams on the season is 139.0. 

@playboy37

 Unfortunately Bryant literally quit halfway through the first half.  Their coach and their team should be totally embarrassed.  The line looked a bit stinky and that's the way it turned out.

Cincinnati at Kansas State under 140 1/2

Cincy is #5. defense, holding opponents to 58.3 ppg.  They are #7 in holding opposing teams to 27.5% shooting from 3 pt range and also #7 in 2 pt range at 42.2%.  They are methodical on offense at #204 in average # of possessions and #274 in adjusted tempo.

They've played 3 other really good defensive teams.  They lost to Villanova 68-60 (128) as one of the elite players in America, 6'8" Dixon went off for 31 of Villanova's 68 points.  Dixon is a load for any team and KSU has nobody close to him offensively.   The total against Xavier was 133 and 125 in the Dayton game.

KSU is not a run and shoot team.  They are #114 in average possession length and #171 in adjusted tempo.  They've played three good defensive teams.  St. Johns is #17 in defensive efficiency and they both scored 63 in regulation (an OT game).  Against the #42 defense Liberty they lost 65-67 and against LSU they lost 65-76.

Neither team is a great shooting team.  Both are awful from the FT line, #324 and #309 at 65.3% and 66.8%.  So neither should rack up many points on free throws.  This is the conference opener and particularly critical for Cincinnati because their next 3 opponents in the Big 12 are all ranked (Arizona, Baylor and Kansas).  They could find themselves in deep trouble if they go into those three with a loss in a game they should win.  Cincinnati lives on their defense and their focus should high on what produces wins for them.

#106 Grand Canyon under TT 85.5 against #194 Bryant

This Grand Canyon team is not the high octane offense from last year.  They've only gone over 79 twice in 12 games.  They beat Cal State Fullerton at home in the first game of the season 89-79.  3 games later they topped #158 Norfolk State with an unconscious explosion from 3 pt range (14/24 for 58.3%).  On the season they are a bad #292 shooting 30.2% from 3 pt range so this was a fluke from nowhere.  They are #206 from 2 pt range at 48.9% and #136 from the FT line at 73.1%.

They managed only 68 pts at #226 UC Davis and 66 at #100 Louisiana Tech.  In two of the last 3 games they beat woeful #361 Chicago State 74-51 and #300 San Diego 68-55.

Bryant's defense is slightly above average at #132 defending the 3 (32.1%) and #154 defending the 2 pt shot (50.1%).  It should also be difficult to get much in the paint against them with their great size.  Their starters are listed at 6'6", 6'6", 6'8", 6'8" and 6'11", one of the tallest in the country.  This TT line seems to stink a bit -- maybe too easy. 

@OldHammy

 Unfortunately Illinois State’s top scorer didn’t even dress and he wasn’t listed in any injury reports.  About 4 minutes into the game their 2nd leading scorer took a hard Fall on a dunk for his 6th point, left the game injured and did not return.  That pretty much killed the chances for going over 145 but they came within 5 points without those two.  Hopefully it will be a 3/1 day.

@Crash44

 Looks pretty safe with 13 at halftime.

@playboy37

 Thanks — but caution is always warranted.  

Harvard at Iona under 140

Harvard is #292 and Iona $290 in offensive efficiency.  Throw out the two games Harvard has played against teams below #330 in Ken Pom rankings and Harvard has scored 79 (1st game of the year at home), 55,56,66,78,54,64,67 and 63 in the rest of the games.  Iona scores at home are 64-58, 62-59, 68-84 (against #114 Cornell) and 72-63.

Iona is #287 from 3 pt range (30.3%), #339 from 2 pt range (44.4%) and #333 from the FT line (64.4%).  Harvard is #298 from deep (30.1%), #171 from 2pt range (51.4%) and good from the FT line at 75.6%.

Ken Pom's #204 Illinois Chicago at #146 Ill. State over 145

Ill. St. is 4/0 at home incl. an 81-77 win over #151 St. Louis and an 85-75 win over #163 Ohio.  In 4 home games they scored 81, 81, 72 and 85.  In their last game UIC traveled to #141 Seattle and beat them 79-68.  They got 74 at stingy #49 Northwestern and 81 against #157 JMU.

Ill. St. is #9 in 3 pt% (40.6) and UIC is a woeful #342 defending the 3.  Ill. St. shoots 54.7% from 2pt range and is #24 from the FT line (78.4%). UIC is mediocre at 32.3% from deep, 50.3% from 2 pt range and 72.6% from the FT line.  PS, I also sprinkled some pizza money on a parlay with Ill. State -5 and the over.

Woeful Ken Pom #364 Mississippi Valley State under TT 50.5 at #60 LSU

MVS has played a difficult schedule with 8 teams in the top 100, although only one ranked team.  They have averaged 11 points fewer per game than any team in the NCAA.  They've broken 50 twice against D1 teams, totaling 49, 39, 56, 43, 48, 48, 49, 52, 42 and 48.

LSU is as very good defensive team, especially at home.  They are #20, allowing opposing teams to shoot only 28.2% from 3 pt range, and they are #16 defending the 2 (43.3%).  Their demanding coach, who took over a dumpster fire two years ago when Will Wade was fired, has recruited and used the transfer portal well in the tough job of rebuilding what was once a very good program.  If they show up with some intensity in their final tune up before conference play begins, MVS will not break 50.

@Verdict

 Thanks

I've slipped to 9/9 on the season with an 0/2 night the last time out.

1st games after Christmas break are always iffy, especially for road teams.  Saturday lines are up most places and I took Ken Pom's #163 Elon at home -4 against #192 Marshall.  The past results and the stats matchup all point to a very comfortable win for Elon.  They've played the tougher schedule (#196 vs #267).   Marshall is 0/5 on the road and their best home win is against #158 Ohio...rest are cupcakes.  Elon is 4/0 at home and also beat #86 Notre Dame at ND 84-77.  They have a 79-56 win at home against #143 Wofford and won the last home game before the break against #145 UNC Greensboro.

There are two stats where Elon has a huge advantage.  They are an outstanding rebounding team for a smaller school, #27 in getting 55.3% of the available rebounds.  Marshall is #199 at 49.7%,  Elon is very disciplined on defense at #4 in the country, committing only 12.8 fouls per game.  Marshall is a woeful #360, committing 21.8 fouls per game.  

Marshall is #334, shooting 28.5% from 3 pt range vs Elon's 33.8%.  Marshall is also bad from the FT line (#296 at 66.9%) vs Elon's mediocre 70.1%.  Marshall will undoubtedly have a tough time getting points in the paint against Elon's height.  Elon is a strong #31 in holding opponents to 44.7% from 2 pt range.  The only category Marshall has an advantage in is TOs.  They commit 2 less per game than Elon.

I just took a ML parlay at 2.2/1 on Penn State/Texas/Oregon.  Since OSU/Oregon is the last game played it will also give me a possible hedging opportunity, perhaps with a live bet during the game, should Texas and Penn State take care of business and win their games as expected.

Looked like a lock 3/1 yesterday but 5 pt lead with a minute left and a sure under turned into an OT over with a long desperation 3 pointer followed by a TO on the inbounds pass with 10 seconds left, a subsequent foul and two made throws.  Hmmm.

Iowa State/Morgan State under 161

Morgan State is #348 in Ken Pom's rankings, #296 in offensive efficiency and #357 in deficiency.  Also, one of their better players missed the last game with an injury and his status is questionable.  Iowa State has played 4 other cupcakes at home.  They beat #364 Miss. Valley State 83-44, #346 IU Indianapolis 87-52, #305 Jackson State 100-58 and #300 Nebraska Omaha 83-51.  Their normal rotation is 7 players with at least 4 getting 30+ minutes.  In all 4 of these games they had 9 with double digit minutes, none with more than 28 and cleared the entire bench with everyone getting at least 3 minutes.  This is the final "scrimmage" before the home opener at Colorado...a clear look ahead spot with everyone getting playing time.

Rider +19 at NC State

NC State is not a great shooting team.  They are #241 from 3 pt range, #150 from 2 pt range and #253 from the FT line.  They have not been world beaters against other weak teams either.  They beat #362 Coppin State by 10 at home December 10 prior to a trip to Kansas and a 15-point loss.  They also scraped by at home by 12 and 9 over two teams ranked #280 and #255 by Ken Pom.

I think rebounding will keep Rider in this game.  They've played three really good teams away and out rebounded them all (#15 UCLA 38-35, #44 Iowa 35-33, and #49 Villanova 33-32...Villanova is #31 in the nation in rebounding %).  NC State is #258 in getting only 48.8% of available rebounds.  If Rider can control the boards they should stay within 19.  This is also a possible look ahead game as the next one for NC Stae is the conference opener.

Can't find any sides I like today -- have 4 totals.  I'll be briefer with the rationale.

Md/Syracuse under 156 at 12 noon est at Barclays Ctr. Brooklyn

Key player Starling hurt and a gametime decision for Syracuse after missing last 3.  Syracuse has scored 70, 64, 71, 66 and 74 against top 100 teams they've played.  Maryland is outstanding defensively, #12 in defensive efficiency.  Syracuse is #345 in 3 pt fg% and Md. allows opponents to shoot only 29.8% from deep.  Syracuse is also terrible from the FT line at 69.8%. Syracuse should wind up in the low 60s and Maryland will likely have to go over 90 to reach this big total.  Might want to sprinkle some pizza money on a parlay with Md -12 1/2 and the total.

GT/Duke under 145 at GT

GT has scored 69, 58, 61, 65 and 60 against the top 100 teams they've played.  Duke is #2 in defensive efficiency.  GT is not too bad defensively at #101.  GT is a poor shooting team and Duke is not a great shooting team either (#112 in 3 pt %, #78 in 2 pt % and #117 from the FT line).

Fairfield/Monmouth under 145 1/2 in a sicko special that isn't even on ESPN+.  Neither team is in a hurry offensively at #183 and #253 in average length of possession.  They are both bad shooting teams.  Fairfield shoots 30.9% from deep, 45.7% from 2 pt range and 68.6% from the FT line.  Monmouth shoots a decent 34.5% from deep but a horrid 38.2% from 2 pt range and a decent 74.7% from the FT line.

ODU/UL Monroe under 145

Neither runs a fast-paced offense #152 and #178 in average possessions per game and both are bad shooting teams.  ODU shoots 29% from 3 pt range, 46% from 2 pt range and a terrible 61.5% from the FT line.  UM is just about as bad at 29.5% from 3 pt range, 46.9% from 2 pt range and 67.7% from the FT line.

@Verdict

 Thanks.

One pick today -- Kennesaw State +15 at Santa Clara

Live by the 3 and die by the 3 is the theme here.  6/5 Santa Clara gets 36% of its points from 3s.  In their 6 wins they've shot 39% from beyond the arc but in their 5 losses they're a woeful 23.9%.  That plays right into one of the biggest strengths of Kennesaw State, a well coached team under Antoinne Pettway, Nate Oats former assistant at Alabama who is in his second year there.  They recently shocked Rutgers and knocked them out of the AP top 25 in a huge upset and the first ever program win against a ranked team.  In that game they held Rutgers to 39% shooting from the field.

Kennesaw is the #5 team in the country in 3 pt fg defense, holding opponents to 26.9% shooting from beyond the arc.

Santa Clara is a decent team at #79 in the Ken Pom rankings.  Neither team is a great shooting team.  Santa Clara shoots 34% from deep vs Kennesaw's 33%.  Santa Clara hits 51.5% of their 2 pters vs Kennesaw's 49.2%, while Kennesaw is just a shade better than Santa Clara from the FT line, 76.6% to 75.4%.  Santa Clara is a slightly better rebounding team but not by much.  Kennesaw's biggest weakness is TOs but Santa Clara also is pretty bad.  Kennesaw averages 3.4 more TOs per game.

Ken Pom has Santa Clara by 11.  If Kennesaw takes care of business at their specialty of defending the three they should keep this game within 15 points.

Tonight in Conf. Opener  7/4 Villanova -8 1/2 at home vs 5-6 Seton Hall

Two teams heading opposite directions. Villanova opened season losing 3 of 1st 5 but come in to conf, opener on 4 gm win streak including 8 pt home win vs #24 Cinc and 29-point win over #118 Temple.  Seton Hall lost heartbreaker by three Sat. to #79 Rutgers on buzzer beater long 3. 63-66.  Prior to that lost by 9 at home to #92 Oklahoma State and 3 gms back a bad 12-pt loss at home to #255 Monmouth.  Sandwiched in was 1 hm 11 pt win against one of the 5 worst teams in BB, NJIT.

Stats broadly favor Villanova despite a stronger #71 schedule than Seton Hall's #102.  Set Hl is woeful offensively, #356, averaging 60.4 ppg on 35.9% 3 pt, a terrible #342 (43.6%) from 2 pt range and an even worse FT shooting percentage of 59.4%.   Villanova averages 79.1 ppg.  They are #9 from 3 pt range (40.5%), #78 from 2 pt (55.3%) and a sparkling #14 from the FT line (79.9%).  Seton Hall is very effective defensively, holding opponents to an average 60.4 ppg but Villanova is good as well at 66 ppg. 

Villanova also protects the ball better, although not great.  They commit 17.6 TOs per game but Seton Hall is #319 with 20.7 TOs a game.  Villanova should win the rebounding battle as well.  They are #17, grabbing 56.1% of available rebounds vs Seton Hall's 399 rank at 52.3%.  

You have to defend home court in conference games and the first one is top priority -- Nova should do that comfortably. 

@Robards

 Better wait on the ty  :-)

At Fan Duel Drake +3 1/2 against KSU.

Ken Pom has this "semi-home" for KSU in Kansas City, but I'd say neutral since it's a 2 hr bus ride from Manhattan and 2 hr 45 min. from Des Moines.

Similar strengths of schedule (#115 for Drake and #95 for KSU).  The results tell the tale.  Drake comes in undefeated with 3 easy wins over top 100 teams (#62 Vande 81-70, #93 Fla Atl. 75-63 & #96 Miami 80-69, all at neutral sites).  

KSU is 6/3 and lost all 3 they've played against top 100 teams (65-76 vs #59 LSU at home, 65-67 vs #66 Liberty at a neutral site and 71-88 at #14 St. Johns).  They've yet to prove they can win a big game with their wins coming against #364, #362, #346, #215 and #144, 3 at home and two at neutral sites.

Drake plays at about the slowest pace in the NCAA although you couldn't tell that from the Miami and Vande scores.  They are roughly equal offensively and in shooting the ball but Drake is significantly better defensively at #45 in defensive efficiency.  KSU protects the ball better but Drake is #21 in the country in creating TOs so TOs are probably a wash.

Drake's big advantage is they are the #7 team in the country in percentage of available rebounds gotten (57.0%) vs KSU which is #102 at 52%.  Drake does it against the good teams too.  Their rebound margin against Miami was +14, +9 vs Fla. Atl. and +17 vs Vande.  KSU was -18 in the home loss to LSU, the #120 ranked team in percentage of rebounds they get.  It's tough in a low-scoring game to give 3 1/2 points while likely giving them more opportunities with a wide gap in rebounding. Could be wrong team favored here.