PatrickBateman

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replied to No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting Well the first play won. There wasn't a dunk until 7 mins into the game. Im still just curious if anyone has ever found success with this prop. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 23, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
replied to No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting Just an addendum - if it was a coin flip they would price it like a coin flip. The coin flip in the Super Bowl always has the same juice on both sides. I forget exact juice but it would be Heads -120 / Tails -120. The fact the Dunk prop has a juice range means it isn't a coin flip in my book. Does it leave a lot to luck, yes, but not a coin flip. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 22, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
replied to No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting Why is it a coin flip though? There are multiple ways to score a basket in NBA. Layup, 2pt Jumper, 3pt Shot, Free Throw. The Dunk is only one of multiple ways to score. So i don't think its a coin flip proposition View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 22, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting This seems like its an exploitable prop bet. The juice isn't that bad, ranges from -170 to -120. Has anyone ever been successful betting this? Ive been looking into Point In The Paint and OPP PITP as a potential way to gain an edge. The line definitely varies based on higher PITP scoring teams. Tonight the Mavs and Rockets are playing and NO DUNK IN FIRST THREE MINUTES IS -165. They 26th and 23rd PITP but the Rockets are 3rd in Defending. Seems like the Mavs game plan wouldn't be trying to get the bulk of their scoring down low and since they both already don't score down low a ton - seems like a solid play. Has anyone else tried to find an edge on this prop bet? View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 22, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Is under Bills/Browns the play of the week? in NFL Betting Does anyone know if Fanduel cancels the original bets for the game in Buffalo? View Post \| View Thread	Clutchcity23	17	November 17, 2022 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Snow Game in Buffalo Sunday in NFL Betting Does this void any original bets before the move? View Post \| View Thread	Rowdie22	5	November 17, 2022 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Evaluating Games/Recaps in NFL Betting What sources do you guys use to recap / evaluate games? I'm looking for any television programs, youtube, channels, podcasts, etc that do really good in depth analysis of each game come Tuesday. Clearly its too much time to rewatch every game from each week but I would like to find a source for rally good evaluations that will aid me in my bets moving forward. Thanks for the suggestions everyone, BOL! View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	5	September 12, 2022 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Stay in cash right now, or...... in Investments I share wallstreetcappers sentiment but whats the best way to fade this market? The short ETFs are not for long term plays and I am not trying to time a drop, just feel there is more a slow decline coming. Is Gold the way to go? View Post \| View Thread	THEMUGG	38	February 12, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Australian Open Prop Bets in Tennis Also anywhere that would be fun to watch it? View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	3	January 28, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Australian Open Prop Bets in Tennis Just got to Vegas. Having trouble finding a book that offers the games total. Anyone have any idea where I can find that offered? I'm going over 40.5 (I found the line online but can't bet it.) Think we see a pretty even match to the end View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	3	January 28, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to anyone got a VT Stony brook line yet? in College Basketball Haven't seen one but -5 or less and I would take Stony Brook. Thats coming from a UVM fan. I attended the UNH and UVM game this past Monday. VT is really bad at rebounding and rely heavily on the 3 ball. If they are not falling this game can get ugly. In my opinion this UVM team just looks too young to win this game on the road. Next few years they will be the best in the America East but this year they are still just too young. Stony Brook a good solid team. Its their time this year, UVMs time next year. What are your thoughts? View Post \| View Thread	andrew730	4	March 12, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Holmey's $$$$ Thread FRIDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.04.16 in College Basketball My Pick for Friday is TEXAS -4. Seems like we missed the best of the line at -2.5 but I don't think I mind. And yes if you adjust the spread from their previous meeting to take into consideration court change it should be lower at -2. However here is the deal... 1) This Oklahoma St team is just done done done. They just look tired last few games and they are just thin in the ranks. Texas coming off a bad loss but still ranked Top 25 and a loss here definitely hurts their Tourney ranking. OK State is down in all the major categories I look at last 3 games. EFG%, TPP, ORB%, and FT Shooting %. They are either LAST or in the 300s last 3 games they have played. So this tells me my sense that this team has given up is even more correct than what my eyes are already telling me. 2) Last game these teams played 3 players accounted for 37 of the 69 points OK State scored. Evans - OUT - 34 minutes - 12 points Jeffry Carroll - Questionable - 24 minutes - 7 points *Leyton Hammonds - Questionable - 37 minutes!!!! - 18 points* So an already thin team may be losing all that? Only a half point adjustment from -2 (adjusted previous game) to -2.5 opener for this matchup? No real surprise this jumped to -4 in a blink of an eye. Depending on the line I may also be looking to play OK St Team Total Under if it is anywhere near 65-69. If these guys are missing, scoring under 60 is not that hard to imagine. 3) SHAKA SMART - This pretty much doesn't need too much clarity. He gets his team ready to play and game plans well. If you are going to take road favorites to cover you bet on good coaches!!!!!!! Thats all that needs to be said. It scares me slightly that Texas is not a great FT shooting team and that can hurt you down the stretch covering on the road. Also Texas 4-5 on the road SU isn't really spectacular. However, they are 6-3 on the road ATS and quite frankly you have a team with plenty of life off a pretty bad kick in the teeth last week. Good free throw shooting or not they just grind this OK St down to nothing and cover -4. This is also a play even just from a market standpoint. If this doesn't go to -5 or -6 by game time I would be really surprised. So -4 has value even though I wish I could have gotten -2.5. $$$$ 2k Texas -4 View Post \| View Thread	USC_Holmey	262	March 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.03.16 in College Basketball Gambleholic63, Really glad my info helped and we both cashed that ticket with minimal stress in that game. I just have to say that I have been reading this post everyday and that (TEMPLE) was my first submission. Unfortunately I hate to admit that I really had such a great feel for that game because Memphis has hurt me so many times the past few weeks. USC has started something amazing because this thread cuts out all the BS that people post on this site. I.E. - Just starting a thread and saying "USC -6" and then nothing else. Why does anyone care if you are not providing any info? Those posts have never made sense to me. We are here to have open discussion and help each other take down the bookie. I also really appreciate how no one bashes on anyone in here. For a long time this forum has been either bonehead meaningless posts like the ones I mentioned above or people just bashing on each other calling each other idiots or squares or whatever. A TOAST TO USC FOR BEGINNING A NEW TREND View Post \| View Thread	USC_Holmey	145	March 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.03.16 in College Basketball I have benefited from this thread and I would like to help contribute. TEMPLE -4 I follow these teams somewhat closely and see a clear dichotomy between these teams. Memphis on the road is absolute garbage. 1-7 SU and have lost to some pretty bad teams. I know because I have foolishly backed them and at times they cannot score. Now we have a Temple team that never gives up...see Houston game. They fight till the end. Only losses in Feb are Villanova and on the road against Tulsa in a major letdown spot and Tulsa is actually a pretty solid team. So I am throwing that result out. Temple is solidly in the hunt to win the AAC vs Memphis playing an 8-9 AAC record? They couldn't win on the road this whole season and now with nothing to play for should just be that much more unmotivated. Also last home game for Temple which gives a little more home spirit. Just for a quick backing of my play with some stats...Temple Defensive Efficiency at home is in the Top 50. Memphis one of the top teams in Defensive Efficiency at home but on the road...drum roll please...300th in Defensive Efficiency. Surprise Surprise. This team is terrible. Temple is not an offensive juggernaut by any means but if you say home court is -3 for a regular game, then the obvious difference between Memphis at home vs away has to factor out much higher and -4 seems like a fit to me. Temple lost by 2 at Memphis. That's not a whole lot of points to win by at home that instills confidence in a Memphis team that plays so much worse on the road. The o/u is actually quite high at 148.5 which makes me think Temple comes out and just lays it on for a -7 to -10 victory. Any takes from you guys on this game? Thanks and BOL View Post \| View Thread	USC_Holmey	145	March 03, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Oakland under 184 in College Basketball any info on why? View Post \| View Thread	Rex99	36	February 26, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball Guys thanks for the positive vibes and good discussion. We got cash tonight. I am not one to rub it in but after looking through TSW's post and seeing what type of person he is, I find it very unlikely he comes back to admit he was wrong. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 26, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball TSW, so are you taking WIU +3.5? Everyone else that is contributing info and positive discussion, Appreciate it. Hopefully we cash this ticket. Like I said I took -2. Line is getting a little higher than I would like, but I think -3/-3.5 for a lower wager also is a decent fit. I understand the line reading aspect of the matchup being..."if you have a really good team only laying 2 on the road to a crap team then its a trap." However here is the deal with that: 1) If you look at the previous point spread when IPFW was at home and factor in that they are on the road, then the actual line should be IPFW -1/2. So at -2 its already slightly inflated according to what the power rankings were at that time. So its not like the line offered is a steal by any means. However, it also isn't asking them to cover by two possessions. It puts the line makers in a tough position because they can't make the line -6 or -7. So the line falls in a just Win sort of scenario which i like. 2) The other day I took Monmouth over Rider at -3 and was the same situation, 20+ win team on the road vs a 10 win team. Seemed really easy and Monmouth was up 9 at the half. First ten minutes of second half Rider goes on a 33-9 run and couldn't miss a shot. Result: Monmouth wins by 1 with a 3 pt shot as time expires and I lose. The reason I bring this up is because yes it looked like I fell for a bad line, but the fact is these are 18-22 year old kids. Monmouth was clearly the right side but variance and how the runs go in basketball can sometimes go against you. If there were 2 more minutes in that game Monmouth probably would have won by 6 how the momentum was swinging back. Next day similar teams go head to head with a "fishy" line and I decided to lay off after the Monmouth loss I experienced. What happens? The road team wins by 20 as a -2 and I now feel like I lost two games because of Monmouth. The point is this...This can very well be a letdown spot. However, IPFW has been playing some of its best basketball of the year. They can probably beat this team playing 75% as well as they usually play. I'd rather not overthink it and put my money on a team that clearly should win this no problem. That doesn't guarantee a win, but having money on IPFW win or lose seems like the right side to me. IPFW $1k -2 View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball Well like I said I already took it for 1K at -2. I look forward to seeing you back in here to tell me you took a 2-12 team over the last two months +3/+3.5. The team they lost to on the road by 16 at least has a winning record and is decent. Line certainly has the feel of a letdown spot but by you fading just to make yourself seem like a pro also has all the makings of a letdown spot. However, like I said I got the line at -2 and that is not much of a margin for this team to cover. Basically just need to win. Already has moved to -2.5. Maybe if they were -5+ this could be a letdown but I am willing to lose money on a team like IPFW playing a team like WIU when all I need is a WIN. Now I'm guessing tomorrow before the game I won't be hearing about how you grew a pair and took WIU. Its clear from all your "contributions" to the site you just bash people and call them losers and morons. Just wish it was me booking your money tomorrow. Please don't disappear around 11pm tomorrow when this game is just about over. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball tsw, I am not sure if you are aware of this but this is a forum for the sharing of ideas. Do you have your money on Western Illinois? Do you play for them? Is your cousin the bench coach? If the answer is no to all of these then why is it necessary to come into a thread and bash me? I literally wrote "Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing?" You have provided some insight but chose to also personally attack me by calling me a "moron." Thank you for the insight and thank you for also showing why 99% of the people on here are actually morons. You're most likely a long term loser. It seems that you chooses to belittle others rather than utilize thoughtful discussion to the betterment of us all...ie- what winners do. Yes I have looked into the stats a bit deeper and compared the away/home dichotomy. Numbers aren't quite as great but I still see one team playing very well vs another playing very poorly. In fact IPFW is 11-3 ATS on the road. WIU 2-6 ATS at home. Now I am not looking or IPFW to cover a big number, ALL THEY HAV TO DO ESSENTIALLY IS WIN THE GAME STRAIGHT UP. I am putting 1k IPFW -2. Will you be betting the opposite side? View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball IPFW is 28th EFG% in country / Top in the country last 3 games WIU is 225th EFG% in country / 300th in the country last 3 games. IPFW is 82nd Turnovers Per Possession in the country / Top in the country last 3 games WIU is 204th Turnovers Per Possession / 323rd in the country last 3 games IPFW is 119th FT% in the country / Top in the country last 3 games WIU is 136th FT% in the country / 336th in the country last 3 games. IPFW 22-7 and 11-3 in Summit League / Leads Division WIU 9-16 and 2-12 in Summit League / Last in Division And the line is IPFW -2??? I do not see any major recent injuries. Normally I wouldn't even question this line but I have had a run of losses in situations just like this...Team with inverse W-L records yet somehow the under .500 team wins and covers without a problem. Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing? IPFW doesn't have the greatest defense but up against a team like WIU that has an offense in the bottom third of all teams, that doesn't seem like enough to pass on IPFW -2 View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting Well the first play won. There wasn't a dunk until 7 mins into the game. Im still just curious if anyone has ever found success with this prop. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 23, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
replied to No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting Just an addendum - if it was a coin flip they would price it like a coin flip. The coin flip in the Super Bowl always has the same juice on both sides. I forget exact juice but it would be Heads -120 / Tails -120. The fact the Dunk prop has a juice range means it isn't a coin flip in my book. Does it leave a lot to luck, yes, but not a coin flip. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 22, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
replied to No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting Why is it a coin flip though? There are multiple ways to score a basket in NBA. Layup, 2pt Jumper, 3pt Shot, Free Throw. The Dunk is only one of multiple ways to score. So i don't think its a coin flip proposition View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 22, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic No Dunk In First Three Minutes Of Game in NBA Betting This seems like its an exploitable prop bet. The juice isn't that bad, ranges from -170 to -120. Has anyone ever been successful betting this? Ive been looking into Point In The Paint and OPP PITP as a potential way to gain an edge. The line definitely varies based on higher PITP scoring teams. Tonight the Mavs and Rockets are playing and NO DUNK IN FIRST THREE MINUTES IS -165. They 26th and 23rd PITP but the Rockets are 3rd in Defending. Seems like the Mavs game plan wouldn't be trying to get the bulk of their scoring down low and since they both already don't score down low a ton - seems like a solid play. Has anyone else tried to find an edge on this prop bet? View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	9	December 22, 2023 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Is under Bills/Browns the play of the week? in NFL Betting Does anyone know if Fanduel cancels the original bets for the game in Buffalo? View Post \| View Thread	Clutchcity23	17	November 17, 2022 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Snow Game in Buffalo Sunday in NFL Betting Does this void any original bets before the move? View Post \| View Thread	Rowdie22	5	November 17, 2022 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Evaluating Games/Recaps in NFL Betting What sources do you guys use to recap / evaluate games? I'm looking for any television programs, youtube, channels, podcasts, etc that do really good in depth analysis of each game come Tuesday. Clearly its too much time to rewatch every game from each week but I would like to find a source for rally good evaluations that will aid me in my bets moving forward. Thanks for the suggestions everyone, BOL! View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	5	September 12, 2022 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Stay in cash right now, or...... in Investments I share wallstreetcappers sentiment but whats the best way to fade this market? The short ETFs are not for long term plays and I am not trying to time a drop, just feel there is more a slow decline coming. Is Gold the way to go? View Post \| View Thread	THEMUGG	38	February 12, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Australian Open Prop Bets in Tennis Also anywhere that would be fun to watch it? View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	3	January 28, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Australian Open Prop Bets in Tennis Just got to Vegas. Having trouble finding a book that offers the games total. Anyone have any idea where I can find that offered? I'm going over 40.5 (I found the line online but can't bet it.) Think we see a pretty even match to the end View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	3	January 28, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to anyone got a VT Stony brook line yet? in College Basketball Haven't seen one but -5 or less and I would take Stony Brook. Thats coming from a UVM fan. I attended the UNH and UVM game this past Monday. VT is really bad at rebounding and rely heavily on the 3 ball. If they are not falling this game can get ugly. In my opinion this UVM team just looks too young to win this game on the road. Next few years they will be the best in the America East but this year they are still just too young. Stony Brook a good solid team. Its their time this year, UVMs time next year. What are your thoughts? View Post \| View Thread	andrew730	4	March 12, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Holmey's $$$$ Thread FRIDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.04.16 in College Basketball My Pick for Friday is TEXAS -4. Seems like we missed the best of the line at -2.5 but I don't think I mind. And yes if you adjust the spread from their previous meeting to take into consideration court change it should be lower at -2. However here is the deal... 1) This Oklahoma St team is just done done done. They just look tired last few games and they are just thin in the ranks. Texas coming off a bad loss but still ranked Top 25 and a loss here definitely hurts their Tourney ranking. OK State is down in all the major categories I look at last 3 games. EFG%, TPP, ORB%, and FT Shooting %. They are either LAST or in the 300s last 3 games they have played. So this tells me my sense that this team has given up is even more correct than what my eyes are already telling me. 2) Last game these teams played 3 players accounted for 37 of the 69 points OK State scored. Evans - OUT - 34 minutes - 12 points Jeffry Carroll - Questionable - 24 minutes - 7 points *Leyton Hammonds - Questionable - 37 minutes!!!! - 18 points* So an already thin team may be losing all that? Only a half point adjustment from -2 (adjusted previous game) to -2.5 opener for this matchup? No real surprise this jumped to -4 in a blink of an eye. Depending on the line I may also be looking to play OK St Team Total Under if it is anywhere near 65-69. If these guys are missing, scoring under 60 is not that hard to imagine. 3) SHAKA SMART - This pretty much doesn't need too much clarity. He gets his team ready to play and game plans well. If you are going to take road favorites to cover you bet on good coaches!!!!!!! Thats all that needs to be said. It scares me slightly that Texas is not a great FT shooting team and that can hurt you down the stretch covering on the road. Also Texas 4-5 on the road SU isn't really spectacular. However, they are 6-3 on the road ATS and quite frankly you have a team with plenty of life off a pretty bad kick in the teeth last week. Good free throw shooting or not they just grind this OK St down to nothing and cover -4. This is also a play even just from a market standpoint. If this doesn't go to -5 or -6 by game time I would be really surprised. So -4 has value even though I wish I could have gotten -2.5. $$$$ 2k Texas -4 View Post \| View Thread	USC_Holmey	262	March 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.03.16 in College Basketball Gambleholic63, Really glad my info helped and we both cashed that ticket with minimal stress in that game. I just have to say that I have been reading this post everyday and that (TEMPLE) was my first submission. Unfortunately I hate to admit that I really had such a great feel for that game because Memphis has hurt me so many times the past few weeks. USC has started something amazing because this thread cuts out all the BS that people post on this site. I.E. - Just starting a thread and saying "USC -6" and then nothing else. Why does anyone care if you are not providing any info? Those posts have never made sense to me. We are here to have open discussion and help each other take down the bookie. I also really appreciate how no one bashes on anyone in here. For a long time this forum has been either bonehead meaningless posts like the ones I mentioned above or people just bashing on each other calling each other idiots or squares or whatever. A TOAST TO USC FOR BEGINNING A NEW TREND View Post \| View Thread	USC_Holmey	145	March 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.03.16 in College Basketball I have benefited from this thread and I would like to help contribute. TEMPLE -4 I follow these teams somewhat closely and see a clear dichotomy between these teams. Memphis on the road is absolute garbage. 1-7 SU and have lost to some pretty bad teams. I know because I have foolishly backed them and at times they cannot score. Now we have a Temple team that never gives up...see Houston game. They fight till the end. Only losses in Feb are Villanova and on the road against Tulsa in a major letdown spot and Tulsa is actually a pretty solid team. So I am throwing that result out. Temple is solidly in the hunt to win the AAC vs Memphis playing an 8-9 AAC record? They couldn't win on the road this whole season and now with nothing to play for should just be that much more unmotivated. Also last home game for Temple which gives a little more home spirit. Just for a quick backing of my play with some stats...Temple Defensive Efficiency at home is in the Top 50. Memphis one of the top teams in Defensive Efficiency at home but on the road...drum roll please...300th in Defensive Efficiency. Surprise Surprise. This team is terrible. Temple is not an offensive juggernaut by any means but if you say home court is -3 for a regular game, then the obvious difference between Memphis at home vs away has to factor out much higher and -4 seems like a fit to me. Temple lost by 2 at Memphis. That's not a whole lot of points to win by at home that instills confidence in a Memphis team that plays so much worse on the road. The o/u is actually quite high at 148.5 which makes me think Temple comes out and just lays it on for a -7 to -10 victory. Any takes from you guys on this game? Thanks and BOL View Post \| View Thread	USC_Holmey	145	March 03, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Oakland under 184 in College Basketball any info on why? View Post \| View Thread	Rex99	36	February 26, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball Guys thanks for the positive vibes and good discussion. We got cash tonight. I am not one to rub it in but after looking through TSW's post and seeing what type of person he is, I find it very unlikely he comes back to admit he was wrong. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 26, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball TSW, so are you taking WIU +3.5? Everyone else that is contributing info and positive discussion, Appreciate it. Hopefully we cash this ticket. Like I said I took -2. Line is getting a little higher than I would like, but I think -3/-3.5 for a lower wager also is a decent fit. I understand the line reading aspect of the matchup being..."if you have a really good team only laying 2 on the road to a crap team then its a trap." However here is the deal with that: 1) If you look at the previous point spread when IPFW was at home and factor in that they are on the road, then the actual line should be IPFW -1/2. So at -2 its already slightly inflated according to what the power rankings were at that time. So its not like the line offered is a steal by any means. However, it also isn't asking them to cover by two possessions. It puts the line makers in a tough position because they can't make the line -6 or -7. So the line falls in a just Win sort of scenario which i like. 2) The other day I took Monmouth over Rider at -3 and was the same situation, 20+ win team on the road vs a 10 win team. Seemed really easy and Monmouth was up 9 at the half. First ten minutes of second half Rider goes on a 33-9 run and couldn't miss a shot. Result: Monmouth wins by 1 with a 3 pt shot as time expires and I lose. The reason I bring this up is because yes it looked like I fell for a bad line, but the fact is these are 18-22 year old kids. Monmouth was clearly the right side but variance and how the runs go in basketball can sometimes go against you. If there were 2 more minutes in that game Monmouth probably would have won by 6 how the momentum was swinging back. Next day similar teams go head to head with a "fishy" line and I decided to lay off after the Monmouth loss I experienced. What happens? The road team wins by 20 as a -2 and I now feel like I lost two games because of Monmouth. The point is this...This can very well be a letdown spot. However, IPFW has been playing some of its best basketball of the year. They can probably beat this team playing 75% as well as they usually play. I'd rather not overthink it and put my money on a team that clearly should win this no problem. That doesn't guarantee a win, but having money on IPFW win or lose seems like the right side to me. IPFW $1k -2 View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball Well like I said I already took it for 1K at -2. I look forward to seeing you back in here to tell me you took a 2-12 team over the last two months +3/+3.5. The team they lost to on the road by 16 at least has a winning record and is decent. Line certainly has the feel of a letdown spot but by you fading just to make yourself seem like a pro also has all the makings of a letdown spot. However, like I said I got the line at -2 and that is not much of a margin for this team to cover. Basically just need to win. Already has moved to -2.5. Maybe if they were -5+ this could be a letdown but I am willing to lose money on a team like IPFW playing a team like WIU when all I need is a WIN. Now I'm guessing tomorrow before the game I won't be hearing about how you grew a pair and took WIU. Its clear from all your "contributions" to the site you just bash people and call them losers and morons. Just wish it was me booking your money tomorrow. Please don't disappear around 11pm tomorrow when this game is just about over. View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball tsw, I am not sure if you are aware of this but this is a forum for the sharing of ideas. Do you have your money on Western Illinois? Do you play for them? Is your cousin the bench coach? If the answer is no to all of these then why is it necessary to come into a thread and bash me? I literally wrote "Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing?" You have provided some insight but chose to also personally attack me by calling me a "moron." Thank you for the insight and thank you for also showing why 99% of the people on here are actually morons. You're most likely a long term loser. It seems that you chooses to belittle others rather than utilize thoughtful discussion to the betterment of us all...ie- what winners do. Yes I have looked into the stats a bit deeper and compared the away/home dichotomy. Numbers aren't quite as great but I still see one team playing very well vs another playing very poorly. In fact IPFW is 11-3 ATS on the road. WIU 2-6 ATS at home. Now I am not looking or IPFW to cover a big number, ALL THEY HAV TO DO ESSENTIALLY IS WIN THE GAME STRAIGHT UP. I am putting 1k IPFW -2. Will you be betting the opposite side? View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic IPFW -2, What am I missing? in College Basketball IPFW is 28th EFG% in country / Top in the country last 3 games WIU is 225th EFG% in country / 300th in the country last 3 games. IPFW is 82nd Turnovers Per Possession in the country / Top in the country last 3 games WIU is 204th Turnovers Per Possession / 323rd in the country last 3 games IPFW is 119th FT% in the country / Top in the country last 3 games WIU is 136th FT% in the country / 336th in the country last 3 games. IPFW 22-7 and 11-3 in Summit League / Leads Division WIU 9-16 and 2-12 in Summit League / Last in Division And the line is IPFW -2??? I do not see any major recent injuries. Normally I wouldn't even question this line but I have had a run of losses in situations just like this...Team with inverse W-L records yet somehow the under .500 team wins and covers without a problem. Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing? IPFW doesn't have the greatest defense but up against a team like WIU that has an offense in the bottom third of all teams, that doesn't seem like enough to pass on IPFW -2 View Post \| View Thread	PatrickBateman	39	February 25, 2016 View Post \| View Thread

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